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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Saturday's MLB games

          Jordan Lawlar of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Michael Reaves/Getty Images
          • ESPN Fantasy
          Sep 9, 2023, 04:00 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and for how to best utilize the information contained within, check out our handy primer here.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          What you need to know for Saturday's MLB Games

          By Mike Sheets

          • The 24-year-old Bobby Miller (29% rostered in ESPN leagues) still hits the occasional speed bump, but that's unlikely to occur on Saturday against the Washington Nationals, who rank bottom-five in MLB with an 87 wRC+ over the last month. It also doesn't hurt that Miller is fresh off arguably his best start of the season, as he twirled seven frames of one-run ball against the mighty Atlanta Braves his last time out. The hard-throwing righty has now pitched at least six innings in five consecutive starts, and he's a strong bet to make it six straight this weekend. Stream with confidence.

          • Since the All-Star break, the Chicago White Sox have an 86 wRC+ and .298 wOBA, both of which rank worst in the American League. They also sport a 24.7 K% versus left-handed pitching (third-worst in AL). This creates a great opportunity for lefty Tarik Skubal (27%). The 26-year-old owns a 3.28 ERA and 1.12 WHIP across his past six outings, racking up seven or more Ks in four straight starts. Fire up Skubal on Saturday as one of the day's top streamers.

          • Alex Cobb (55%) has provided a mixed bag for fantasy managers this season, struggling with his start-to-start consistency. After spinning six shutout frames with a season-high nine Ks against the Oakland A's in late July, those same A's tagged him for five earned runs two starts later. He flirted with a no-hitter against the Cincinnati Reds in late August, and then he didn't make it past the third inning in his next turn against the San Diego Padres. Even so, it's hard not to like Cobb's chances at home against the Colorado Rockies on Saturday. Away from Coors Field, the Rockies have the worst road offense in baseball, sporting an MLB-worst 76 wRC+ and a bloated 27.4% K%. Meanwhile, Cobb has been drastically better at home this season, putting up a 2.09 ERA, compared to a 5.26 mark on the road.

          • Lucas Giolito was hammered for nine runs in his first start for the Cleveland Guardians, and now he lines up to face the Los Angeles Angels, the team that waived him in late August as part of a salary dump. While the list of available Angels bats isn't overly exciting, there's certainly value in getting some exposure against Giolito, whose second-half ERA now sits at 8.53. Nolan Schanuel (4%), Brandon Drury (29%), Luis Rengifo (23%), and Mike Moustakas (2%) are all worth streaming consideration in this matchup.

          • We've seen a slew of top prospects get promoted to the big leagues over the past few weeks, and we got yet another earlier this week, with the Arizona Diamondbacks calling up Jordan Lawlar (4%). Widely regarded as a top 10 fantasy baseball prospect, Lawlar possesses an intriguing across-the-board skill set. After batting .263/.366/.474 with 15 homers and 33 steals across 89 games at Double-A, he turned things up a notch following his promotion to Triple-A, where he slashed .358/.438/.612 with five dingers and three swipes in 16 games. Expecting prospects to hit the ground running at the major league level often leads to disappointment, but there's still value in adding players with difference-making potential and seeing what happens.

          Starting pitcher rankings for Saturday

          Bullpen update for Saturday

          By Todd Zola

          • Emmanuel Clase rebounded from a blown save on Thursday by collecting his second save in three days, giving him 39 for the season. However, the 15 pitches he threw gives him 51 since Wednesday and a seat on the bullpen bench for today's Cleveland Guardians road date with the Los Angeles Angels. Trevor Stephan recorded a hold in each of the past two games, but he only used a total of 17 pitches so he could still be in the late inning mix. Reynaldo Lopez is also in the picture, as is Matt Moore, but the former Angels reliever has surrendered at least a run in five of his last seven appearances.

          • Jordan Romano overcame control issues to register his 33rd save when the Toronto Blue Jays held on to down the Kansas City 5-4 last night in the Rogers Centre. Romano walked two of the first three batters in the top of the ninth, and with two outs he surrendered an RBI single to Salvador Perez, but Romano stranded the tying and go-ahead runs by inducing Edward Olivares to fly out to center to end it. Romano used 29 pitches, but he was working with three days' rest. Earlier in the season, the high total would signal a day off, but we've seen contending teams push their closer down the stretch. Jordan Hicks is the likeliest to fill in if Romano is held out. Hicks threw an 11-pitch inning last night, but he appeared with four days of rest, so he's fine to come back today.

          • On an evening Oracle Park was doing its best impression of Coors Field, the San Francisco Giants held on to beat the Colorado Rockies 9-8 with Camilo Doval registering his 36th save. It wasn't clean with Doval letting the Rockies score once and have the tying run on second base, but Brendan Rodgers grounded out on a comebacker to seal the deal. Doval needed 16 pitches, which came on top of 18 tossed on Wednesday. However, the previous time Doval pitched was the last Thursday in August, so the Giants probably won't hesitate to call his number for the third time in four days.

          Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Saturday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Saturday

          The BAT X's Best Stacks for Saturday

          Prop of the day

          Logan Webb 5.5 strikeouts (-115/-115)

          PREDICTION

          • THE BAT sees Webb putting up 6.5 strikeouts for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 64.6% of the time.

          • THE BAT believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $23.85.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

          • According to the THE BAT X, the offense with the most strikeout-heavy lineup in Saturday's games is the Colorado Rockies with a 27% underlying K%.

          • It is likely that we will see a Pitchers Umpire (Dan Bellino) behind the plate today.

          • As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this game.

          • Webb will have the handedness advantage against six opposing batters in today's game.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

          • Oracle Park grades out as the No. 22 ballpark in MLB for strikeouts, per THE BAT.

          • The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 17.7-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.