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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Monday's MLB games

          Shota Imanaga of the Chicago Cubs will make his regular season debut. Chris Coduto/Getty Images
          • Todd Zola, FantasyApr 1, 2024, 03:27 PM
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Cubs' Imanaga makes MLB debut

          Only the Milwaukee Brewers and Minnesota Twins aren't playing on the first Monday of the season. The 14-game slate features three matinees, beginning at 2:10 PM ET with an interleague affair between the visiting Atlanta Braves and host Chicago White Sox. The final contest is an NL West matchup with the Los Angeles Dodgers entertaining the San Francisco Giants.

          The schedule is devoid of top-end pitching, with only three probable starters rostered in over half of ESPN leagues. Several will be logging their first start ever for their team, with Chicago Cubs starter Shota Imanaga making his MLB debut in a home tilt against the Colorado Rockies. Team tendencies vary year to year since the personnel changes, however, the Rockies offense has been in the bottom third of the league each of the last five seasons for road games against left-handed pitching.

          There isn't anything about the current lineup portending any significant improvement. This puts Imanaga in a great spot for his inaugural MLB outing. He's one of the trio rostered in more than half of ESPN leagues, but at 56.4%, he's still widely available. Spring performances aren't always predictive but fanning 25 in 12 2/3 innings is extreme enough to take notice.

          What you may have missed on Sunday

          • Playing first base was supposed to help keep Bryce Harper healthy. Apparently, the Philadelphia Phillies overlooked the chance that Harper would crash into the camera well. However, manager Rob Thomson indicated Harper was already scheduled to get yesterday off, so his absence was not related to his tumble while chasing a foul pop and he should be back in the lineup today. The Phillies beat the Braves 5-4 to salvage the last game of the three-game set. Jose Alvarado collected the save with a clean ninth inning. This is notable since the Phillies have several closer candidates and Alvarado yielded five runs in 2/3 IP on Opening Day.

          • Jack Flaherty of the Detroit Tigers and Erick Fedde of the Chicago White Sox hooked up in a pitcher's duel in the South Side yesterday, though neither ended up being the pitcher of record. They both fanned seven, Flaherty achieving it over six innings with Fedde lasting 4 2/3 frames. Each entered the season with question marks, but if their first starts are an indication, both are worthy of streaming consideration going forward. Flaherty is aiming to resurrect a once-promising career while Fedde hopes to maintain the success he experienced last season pitching in South Korea. Jason Foley captured his second save in the Tigers' 3-2 victory, reinforcing that he'll be the primary closer -- and not Alex Lange.

          • On Saturday, Abner Uribe notched his second save in as many days for the Milwaukee Brewers. After throwing 29 pitches the previous two days, Uribe wasn't available yesterday, leaving closing duties to Joel Payamps, who delivered his first save of the season. Daily league team managers now know who to deploy on days when Uribe is likely to be rested.

          • During the spring, Dave Roberts stated that Evan Phillips would get most of the save chances. Sure enough, Phillips converted both of the first two opportunities, one in the opener of the Seoul Series and the other this past Friday. While it wasn't a save situation, Phillips also appeared on Saturday, so it was Daniel Hudson getting the nod to seal the deal on Sunday night in the Dodgers' 5-4 win over the St. Louis Cardinals. Last season, Brusdar Graterol was the beneficiary when Phillips was unavailable, but Graterol is currently out until at least May, giving Hudson an extra fantasy boost.

          Everything else you need to know for Monday

          • Max Meyer (4.4% rostered in ESPN leagues) was initially optioned to Triple-A Jacksonville, but with Eury Perez, Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera all sidelined to begin the season, the Miami Marlins recalled the former top prospect and inserted him into their rotation. While it won't come into play on Monday, it's worth noting that Meyer is the only righty in the Marlins rotations, so there will be series where he's flanked by a couple of southpaws which may result in facing some lineups whose left-handed batters had the previous day or two off, possibly affecting their timing. Meyer is a solid streaming option at home against a Los Angeles Angels lineup lacking much support for Mike Trout.

          • The Boston Red Sox starting pitching held up surprisingly well in their season-opening series against the Seattle Mariners. On Monday, Tanner Houck (6.3%) makes his first start of the year in the Coliseum against the Oakland Athletics. Houck has teased the potential to be a solid pitcher, but he lacks consistency as well as historical struggles against left-handed batters. Over the past two seasons, 48% of the hitters Houck has faced were lefty swingers, yet they accounted for 14 of the 17 homers he allowed in that span. The Athletics will likely have at least four left-handed batters set to face Houck, but only Seth Brown is a real power threat, and the spacious venue works in Houck's favor.

          • According to the Starting Pitcher rankings for Monday, James Paxton (5.7%) and the Dodgers have a 58% chance to defeat the Giants in Chavez Ravine. Much of this is expecting the Dodgers offense to tee off on Giants starter Keaton Winn, but Paxton has historically been an above average strikeout pitcher, a trait very much embraced in all fantasy formats. With the Giants' new acquisitions Jorge Soler and Matt Chapman sporting above average strikeout rates, Paxton is one of the better streaming options on the ledger.

          • Through Saturday's action, the Cleveland Guardians led MLB with eight steals. The oddity is eight players were tied for the team lead with one apiece. On Monday, the Guardians open a set with the Seattle Mariners. The Red Sox were 4-for-6 in steals in the first three games of their series with the Mariners, which is sufficient to expect the Guardians to keep running in their matchup. David Fry (2.3%), Tyler Freeman (0.7%), Will Brennan (0.5%), Ramon Laureano (0.4%) and Gabriel Arias (0.2%) all have a bag and are widely available. Fry is of particular interest since he's catcher eligible and has already appeared at first base and designated hitter, indicating manager Stephen Vogt wants his bat in the lineup.

          • Betting tip of the day: Tanner Houck and the Boston Red Sox visit Joe Boyle and the Oakland Athletics on Monday. Boston's pitching held up surprisingly well against the Seattle Mariners, fanning 45 hitters over the four-game set. The Athletics struck out just 27 times over their first four games, but they faced the Cleveland Guardians, a far less-imposing staff. Houck should be able to feed off the success of his teammates, so I'm taking the over on 5.5 strikeouts (-155).

          It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Finish your draft before the first pitch of Sunday night's game and all stats will retroactively count for Week 1. Come and join the fun!

          Starting pitcher rankings for Monday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Monday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Monday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Monday