<
        >

          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Saturday's MLB games

          With one career MLB start under his belt, Christian Scott gets ready to return to the mound on Saturday. Getty Images
          • Todd Zola, FantasyMay 11, 2024, 03:45 PM
            Close
            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
            Follow on X

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Get to know them!

          Saturday's docket features two of the top pitching prospects in the league with Christian Scott making his second start for the New York Mets while Paul Skenes takes the mound for his long-awaited Pittsburgh Pirates debut. Many of the top hitting prospects have struggled to open the season. Will their pitching counterparts fare any better?

          Scott dominated the Tampa Bay Rays in his first career effort, yielding just one earned run over 6 2/3 innings, scattering five hits while fanning six with just one walk. His career began with three straight hits allowed, but after getting out of that frame with just one run allowed, Scott settled in and held the Rays scoreless over the next 5 2/3 innings.

          Saturday will be a big test for the right-hander with the Mets hosting the Atlanta Braves. Scott (14.2% rostered in ESPN leagues) will benefit from the league's top pitching venue, but of course he's facing one of the most potent offenses in the game. The safe play is to look elsewhere for pitching points, but there are reasons to roll the dice.

          Citi Field is a huge downgrade for the Braves (predictably, they're more productive at Truist Park). More importantly, the early forecast calls for temperatures in the low 50s with light rain, which is far from ideal hitting conditions. It's also not amenable for running, which is relevant since the Mets have yielded a league-high 52 steals while only catching three.

          Scott will turn 25 in a month. He compiled only 87 2/3 innings last season, so somewhere between 130-140 IP is likely. Scott is already at 32 IP this season, so his workload will have to be managed as 2024 progresses. How he fares on Saturday could dictate if his workload is done in the majors or back in the minors. The Mets' rotation is likely to get a boost with Kodai Senga, Trevor Megill and David Peterson all slated to return by the end of the month. Scott is worth holding for the next few weeks and then seeing how things flesh out.

          Meanwhile, Skenes (2023's No. 1 overall pick) got his feet wet last season, with four short outings at four different levels, finishing in Double-A. The 6-foot-6 righty opened 2024 with Triple-A Indianapolis. He started seven games there, slowly building up his pitch count and maxing out at 75 pitches in his penultimate appearance, throwing a career-high six stanzas. Last time out, Skenes threw 66 pitches over 4⅓ innings.

          He has posted a 0.99 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP with two of the three earned runs he has allowed coming in his last appearance. Skenes punched out an impressive 45 over 27⅓ innings while issuing a stingy eight walks and only one homer.

          Skenes (69.4% rostered) draws the Chicago Cubs at home for his debut. It's a favorable matchup, but he is still ranked in the middle portion of the scheduled starters because he is probably going to be on a pitch count. This will likely be the case for the bulk of the season with Skenes not celebrating his 22nd birthday until the end of the month. Skenes should be effective, but those in leagues with either a games started or innings limit may not want to burn a start that may only last four innings.

          What you may have missed on Friday

          By Todd Zola

          • Kyle Schwarber left last night's game in the ninth inning. He first experienced tightness in his back in the seventh inning, but stayed in. Be sure to check the lineup of today's game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins, especially since lefty Jesus Luzardo is slated to take the hill for the Marlins. The Phillies may play it safe and sit the left-handed slugger.

          • Bryan Woo revealed he's been pitching through forearm tightness. His 2024 debut was delayed until last night, as Woo was sidelined with an elbow issue. Woo felt some forearm tightness in his final rehab outing, and again last night. He was taken out of the game with one out in the fifth with the Mariners leading 5-0. The move was deemed precautionary, with the expectation Woo makes his next start.

          • Jameson Taillon was scratched from last night's start due to back soreness. It's not considered serious, with the Chicago Cubs hopeful that Taillon can take the hill on Sunday in the series finale against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

          • Staying with the Cubs, Dansby Swanson was placed on the 10-day IL with a right knee sprain. The injury is not thought to be serious, with optimism Swanson can return when first eligible on May 18. In the interim, Nico Hoerner is expected to fill in at shortstop with Miles Mastrobuoni and Nick Madrigal handling the keystone.

          • Joel Payamps was put on the bereavement list yesterday. He'll miss at least the rest of the Milwaukee Brewers' weekend set with the St. Louis Cardinals. Trevor Megill has logged the past few Brewers' saves, though Payamps has been in the holds mix.

          • Friday night was interesting on the saves front. By means of reminder, be sure to keep up with all 30 bullpens in the Closer Chart, where you would have seen Chicago White Sox closer Michael Kopech and Kansas City Royals closer James McArthur were was labeled as "heavily worked", which is why Jordan Leasure and John Schreiber recorded saves last night.

          • You also would have seen the note regarding the Minnesota Twins shifting to a committee. Last night, Jhoan Duran was summoned in the eighth inning to face the top of the Toronto Blue Jays' lineup, with Griffin Jax registering the save in the Twins' 3-2 win.

          Everything else you need to know for Saturday

          • The schedule begins at 3:07 p.m. ET in the Rogers Centre with the Toronto Blue Jays hosting the Minnesota Twins. Kevin Gausman (95.5%) has a 0.75 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP over his past four starts, spanning 24 innings, but he has only fanned 21 in this stretch. Gausman will face an offense with recent wins against Tanner Houck, Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert, so they're on a roll. Even so, Gausman is a must-start.

          • Triston McKenzie (24.2%) is the day's top streaming option with the Cleveland Guardians visiting the Chicago White Sox. Over his past four starts, McKenzie has posted a 2.57 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP, with an encouraging 25 strikeouts over 21 frames. The White Sox split their first eight games this month, but they still sport one of the least productive lineups in the league.

          • Nestor Cortes (46.2%) has registered three quality starts over his past four outings. His ERA is 3.08 with a 0.95 WHIP and 27 strikeouts (and just one free pass) in these last 26 1/3 innings. The New York Yankees are in St. Petersburg for a weekend set against AL East rival Tampa Bay. The Rays' offense has been surprisingly below average -- and with an above-average strikeout rate -- so look for Cortes to stay in his groove.

          • Jesus Luzardo (74.3%) and Cristian Javier (85.1%) are both ranked in Saturday's top 10, but they're both coming off IL stints. Unless you're in dire need of innings, the safe play is to sit both. Luzardo has a challenging matchup, albeit at home with the Philadelphia Phillies. Meanwhile, Javier has a favorable road date with the Detroit Tigers but isn't likely to pitch deep into the game.

          • Betting Tip of the Day: The Oakland Athletics are calling up Joey Estes for tonight's road start against the Seattle Mariners. Estes has a bloated 6.04 ERA and 1.46 WHIP with 26 strikeouts in 28 1/3 innings with Triple-A Las Vegas. He's only 22 years old, but he's not considered a top prospect. The Mariners are usually on the other side of strikeout props, but even though they fan more than any other team, I like the under on 4.5 Ks (-110) for Estes. In fact, I'm going to pair that with the under on 3.5 Ks (+200). If Estes finishes with four strikeouts, it's still a slight profit, and I don't like his chances of staying in the game long enough to notch five strikeouts.

          It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

          Starting pitcher rankings for Saturday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Saturday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors that include player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Saturday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Today