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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Friday's MLB games

          Despite some rough outings, it's hard to pass on Pablo Lopez, given his underlying metrics. Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images
          • Tristan H. Cockcroft
          May 31, 2024, 03:48 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Patience with Pablo

          Fantasy managers who selected Minnesota Twins ace Pablo Lopez seventh at his position on average in the preseason might be frustrated with his outside-the-positional top-50 point total (107, through 11 starts), or the three consecutive losses he's taking into his Friday assignment at the Houston Astros.

          In those past three outings, Lopez missed fewer bats, allowed more hard contact and served up a greater home run rate than he had previously during his Twins career. (Past 3 starts: 18.7 K%, 18.6 Whiff%, 6.7 HR%, 36.2 Statcast hard hit%; 2023-May 9, 2024: 29.6 K%, 30.5 Whiff%, 3.1 HR%, 35.9% HH%)

          Taking a step back, however, Lopez's seasonal underlying metrics remain as excellent as they were during his elite 2023, most notably the 1.17 WHIP, 27.7% strikeout and 4.0% walk rates, which are all well within range of his 1.15/29.2%/6.0% numbers from last season. The Statcast metrics illustrate how much misfortune Lopez has had on balls in play thus far, as his 3.26 expected ERA is almost exactly two runs beneath his 5.25 actual ERA, not to mention falling well within range of his 3.00 xERA of 2023.

          Is an Astros matchup the one in which we should expect a Lopez rebound? On paper, at least, it stands out as one of the scariest. The projections, in fact, say the Astros are one of the three toughest offenses for a pitcher to face, and the toughest for a right-hander. At the same time, the Astros have been one of the most disappointing teams to date, and on the hitting side, they have been held to two runs or fewer in five of their past seven games (entering Thursday).

          It's one of those high-ceiling, low-floor matchups, so let your own comfort level with such types drive your decision-making. I'm sticking with Lopez and anticipating a rebound, as a historic believer in underlying skills over raw rotisserie stats.

          What you may have missed on Thursday

          By Todd Zola

          • Arizona Diamondbacks SP Zac Gallen left last night's outing after throwing only six pitches. With no one out and one on, Gallen motioned to the dugout for the trainer. After a short meeting, they headed to the dugout. Gallen re-injured his right hamstring that he first hurt on April 26. Gallen's status is unclear, with SP Slade Cecconi as his likely replacement if he ends up missing more time.

          • The New York Mets held 1B Pete Alonso out of the starting lineup for Thursday's home date with the Diamondbacks. He was nursing a hand bruise after being hit by a pitch on Wednesday. However, Alonso entered yesterday in the seventh inning as a pinch-hitter, singling and then coming around to score, tying the game 2-2. The Mets prevailed 3-2 with DH J.D. Martinez providing the margin of victory with an eighth-inning homer. The save came courtesy of RP Reed Garrett. Garrett's scoreless frame was welcome relief after he had yielded six earned runs on seven hits and two walks over his previous three appearances, spanning just 2 1/3 innings.

          • According to ESPN's Jeff Passan, the Mets will shake up their roster today, sending 3B Brett Baty and SP Christian Scott to Triple-A Syracuse. Baty's .225/.304/.325 line is actually a slight improvement from last season, but with 3B Mark Vientos producing at a .295/.354/.591 clip, the club opted to demote Baty, who has fanned in 35% of his May plate appearances. Scott's demotion is a means of managing innings. The Mets have several off days in early June, in part due to the London Series (June 8-9) where they will meet the Philadelphia Phillies. Scott should return to the bigs once the team gets back stateside.

          • The Kansas City Royals recalled SP Daniel Lynch IV to start after SP Brady Singer was scratched due to illness. Lynch gave up three runs (two earned) in five frames, then RP Chris Stratton yielded four runs in just 2/3 innings as the Royals lost 7-6 to the Minnesota Twins. It's unclear whether Singer will be able to make his next start, currently slated for next week in Cleveland.

          • The New York Yankees placed SP Clarke Schmidt on the 15-day IL due to a right lat strain. He's expected to be sidelined for 4-6 weeks. Short-term, SP Cody Poteet will step into the Yankees rotation beginning tomorrow. In late June, SP Gerrit Cole could be ready to make his 2024 debut in pinstripes. Cole is slated to embark on a rehab assignment early next week and is expected to need multiple outings to adequately stretch out.

          • Initially, SP Kyle Muller was expected to start yesterday for the Oakland Athletics in their matinee against the Tampa Bay Rays. However, he was diagnosed with left shoulder tendinitis and was placed on the 15-day IL. Instead, SP Hogan Harris was summoned from Triple-A Las Vegas. Harris allowed three runs (one earned) over five frames. He was poised to pick up the win, but RP Mason Miller failed to convert the save for the first time this season. The Rays went on to win 6-5 in 12 innings. The Athletics bullpen was shorthanded with RP Lucas Erceg having also been placed on the 15-day IL (left forearm tightness) prior to the game.

          Everything else you need to know for Friday

          • Don't sleep on Los Angeles Angels right-hander Jose Soriano, initially a Chase Silseth injury fill-in but now the team's second-most effective member of the rotation. Soriano's stuff is better than you think, his sinker (36.6% usage) fueling a 62.4% ground ball rate thus far, his knuckle curve (29.9% usage) and splitter (9.8%) each generating at least a 34% whiff rate to help fill the strikeout column, and his four-seam fastball (18.8% usage) averaging an impressive 99.1 mph. The opposing Seattle Mariners are baseball's most strikeout-prone team, with the worst K rate overall (28.2%) and against righties (29.1%), and they've been held to zero or one run in four of their past 10 games (spanning three series) and three or fewer in six. Soriano, available in more than 95% of ESPN leagues, is a top streamer with potential staying power.

          • That's not to take anything away from Soriano's opponent, up-and-coming Mariners righty Bryan Woo. He has back-to-back quality starts, has exhibited elite control (75% first pitch strike, 63% zone and 2.5% walk rates) and pitches at home against the Angels' offense, which the projections grade a top-eight matchup.

          • Hey, it's an ex-Yankees matchup in New York! Now-Arizona Diamondbacks lefty Jordan Montgomery faces now-New York Mets righty Luis Severino at Citi Field, with theirs representing the highest projected head-to-head matchup of Friday starting pitchers. Would you believe that this will be Montgomery's first start in New York since the Yankees traded him at the 2022 deadline? He hasn't hit his full stride this year after signing late during spring training, but he does have a 4.07 ERA/3.33 FIP in his past four turns and will be facing an ice-cold Mets offense (seventh-worst 3.47 runs per game average in their past 19, entering Thursday). Severino, meanwhile, faces a Diamondbacks team that has oddly been much better against righty (19-16 record) than lefty (6-14) starters, yet has hit significantly better against lefties (.328 wOBA) than righty (.293 wOBA) pitchers. It's a game that should lean more pitching- than hitting-friendly, à la Angels-Mariners.

          • Always load your fantasy lineups against Washington Nationals lefty Patrick Corbin, who, after rating as one of the game's least-effective pitchers from 2021-23, has in many ways gotten worse so far this year. Righties clobber him, batting .300-plus with an .850-plus OPS against him in each of the past five seasons individually, so scoop up catcher-eligible David Fry, the team's No. 5 hitter and a .419/.594/.791 hitter against lefties this season. Corbin does surrender numbers to same-handed hitters, so there's every reason to keep Nos. 2 and 4 hitters Andres Gimenez and Josh Naylor in your lineup as well.

          • The Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies are among Friday's best hitting stacks, however obvious, going up against right-handers Dakota Hudson and Miles Mikolas respectively. To give you a widely available plug-in from either team, Gavin Lux typically bats sixth against right-handers for the Dodgers, in a prime RBI spot, while Brandon Marsh's .297/.364/.500 rates against righties, coupled with the home game in a hitting-friendly environment, make him a strong start against a more contact-oriented pitcher like Mikolas.

          • Betting tip of the day: Going all in on the above notes, Jose Ramirez (+400) to hit a home run stands out in a Corbin matchup. I'm also enough of a believer in Lopez that I'd take the Twins (-105) on the money line.

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          Starting pitcher rankings for Friday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Friday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Friday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Friday