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          Fantasy baseball lineup advice: Reds ace Greene is must-start on Thursday

          Hunter Greene has been on a roll since late June. Kirk Irwin/Getty Images
          • Mike Sheets
          Aug 8, 2024, 03:04 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Reds' Greene takes on Marlins

          Thursday's 10-game slate is highlighted by Cincinnati Reds right-hander Hunter Greene taking the hill against the Miami Marlins in Marlins Park. Greene has always had big-time stuff with high strikeout rates. As a former No. 2 overall pick, it felt like only a matter of time before he blossomed into a fantasy ace. It didn't all come together as quickly as hoped, however. The big right-hander produced a 4.44 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in his rookie year, and he stumbled to a 4.82 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 2023. That said, fantasy managers who stuck with Greene are finally being rewarded.

          Through 22 starts this season, Greene has delivered a 2.83 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 10.3 K/9. He's limiting hard contact at a career-best rate (32.5%), and he's doing a much better job keeping the ball in the park (0.69 HR/9). Those numbers don't fully do the 25-year-old justice, though. Over the last month and a half, Greene hasn't just been good; he's looked like one of the best pitchers in baseball.

          In his last nine starts, Greene owns a 1.70 ERA and 0.83 WHIP to go along with 65 K's in 53 innings, and he has allowed just two earned runs over his past six turns combined. It's not just that he's getting good results, the underlying data is good too. Greene's 124 Stuff+ mark is currently tops in baseball, and his expected batting average against (.187) and expected SLG against (.302) both rank him among the top 3%. It should come as no surprise, then, that he's been the second-best starting pitcher in fantasy baseball over the last month (behind only Dylan Cease), according to the ESPN Player Rater.

          Expect continued success for Greene on Tuesday against a Marlins lineup that ranks fourth-worst in MLB with an 87 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching this season. While he's already rostered in nearly every standard fantasy league, consider him a top DFS target that's worth his high salary. Greene is on some kind of roll right now, and you don't want to miss out.

          What you may have missed on Wednesday

          By Todd Zola

          • San Diego Padres OF Jurickson Profar was hit on the right knee with a fastball during the sixth inning of last night's contest. He took his base, but after hobbling to second on a base hit by 2B Xander Bogaerts, Profar was lifted for a pinch runner. The Padres have a 12:35 p.m. ET matinee with the Pittsburgh Pirates today and Profar is in the starting lineup, slated to bat second and play left field. Even so, it's worth monitoring this situation in case of a late scratch.

          • Philadelphia Phillies OF Austin Hays left last night's testy affair with the Los Angeles Dodgers due to a tight left hamstring. His status for tonight's series opener on the road with the Arizona Diamondbacks is unclear. The Phillies are slated to face LHP Jordan Montgomery, so Phillies OF Johan Rojas will already be in the lineup. If Hays can't play, either OF Brandon Marsh will garner a rare start facing a left-hander or perhaps reserve OF Weston Wilson will fill in.

          • Boston Red Sox OF Tyler O'Neill has been sidelined thanks to a stomach virus, but yesterday it was revealed he's also dealing with an infection in his lower left leg. O'Neill was placed on the 10-day IL, but since he had missed the previous five games, the stint was backdated so O'Neill could return on August 15. In other team news, RHP Nick Pivetta's turn in the rotation will be skipped this weekend. Pivetta isn't injured, but he's in a rut and his velocity is down a couple of ticks. The bullpen received a boost with the return of RHP Chris Martin.

          • Last night, Pittsburgh Pirates SS Oneil Cruz missed his second straight game due to an illness, but he's back in the lineup today. Cruz is slotted into his usual three-hole, playing shortstop. Leadoff hitter Isiah Kiner-Falefa slides over to second base.

          • Updating a note from yesterday, Baltimore Orioles SP Grayson Rodriguez has been diagnosed with a mild lat strain. Manager Brandon Hyde did not reveal a timeline, but he indicated that he doesn't anticipate a lengthy absence. RHP Albert Suarez will likely remain in the rotation while Rodriguez is sidelined.

          • On the saves front, Oakland Athletics RP Mason Miller came off the IL prior to last night's game with the Chicago White Sox and was immediately reinserted as closer, collecting his 18th save. Tyler Ferguson threw a clean eighth for his second hold.

          • Miami Marlins RP Calvin Faucher has seemingly emerged with the closer job as he's captured a save in his last two appearances, including last night's 6-4 victory over the Cincinnati Reds. Faucher was competing with Andrew Nardi and Anthony Bender for ninth-inning opportunities. Last night, Nardi appeared in the seventh inning and Bender did not pitch, despite being well-rested.

          • Diamondbacks RP Justin Martinez gathered a save in last night's nightcap with the Cleveland Guardians, just two days after securing his first of the season on Monday. A.J. Puk appeared in the seventh inning of the opener and Ryan Thompson secured the first two outs of the eighth inning of the second game for his 21st hold. Martinez has not been named the team's closer, but after yesterday's bullpen usage, he looks to be (at worst) the head of a committee.

          Everything else you need to know for Thursday

          • The top streamer of the day is Bryan Woo (rostered in 40.2% of ESPN leagues), who gets an enviable matchup against the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers have been the second-worst offensive team in baseball since the All-Star break (70 wRC+), while striking out 23.6% of the time versus righties (fifth-highest in AL). For his part, Woo sports a pristine 2.08 ERA and 0.87 WHIP across 12 starts this season, surrendering more than three runs only one time.

          • Kyle Harrison (32%) also finds himself in a good spot, facing off against a Washington Nationals team that ranks bottom-five in baseball against left-handed pitching with an 87 wRC+. Harrison got roughed up in his last outing (6 ER in 3.2 IP vs. CIN), but prior to that, he'd limited opponents to one or zero runs in four of five starts. During that stretch, he registered his second career double-digit K performance, fanning 11 batters against the Colorado Rockies.

          • Unsurprisingly, the two lowest-ranked hurlers on the schedule are lefties David Peterson and Austin Gomber, who are scheduled to square off at Coors Field. This is a great spot to stream bats, with Francisco Alvarez (37%), Mark Vientos (22%), J.D. Martinez (14%), and Harrison Bader (3%) drawing the platoon edge for the Mets, and Brenton Doyle (54%), Ezequiel Tovar (34%), and Elias Diaz (7%) getting the platoon advantage for Colorado.

          • Betting tip of the day: With RHP Kyle Tyler toeing the rubber for the Marlins on Thursday, take over 1.5 total hits + runs + RBI (-140) for Elly De La Cruz. De La Cruz sports a .941 OPS versus right-handed pitchers this season, while Tyler has allowed a .351/.431/.497 triple-slash to lefties during his limited time in the big leagues this year.

          Starting pitcher rankings for Thursday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Thursday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Thursday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Thursday