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          Fantasy baseball advice for Thursday: Stick with Zach Eflin

          Zach Eflin has been reliable for fantasy managers since leaving the Phillies, scoring double-digit fantasy points in four straight starts. AP Photo/Christopher O'Meara
          • Eric Karabell, ESPN Senior WriterAug 15, 2024, 02:40 PM
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            • Fantasy baseball, football and basketball analyst for ESPN
            • Charter member of FSWA Hall of Fame
            • Author of "The Best Philadelphia Sports Arguments"
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Former Phillies reunite in Baltimore

          Boston Red Sox RHP Nick Pivetta and Baltimore Orioles RHP Zach Eflin teamed up as once-promising Phillies from 2017 through 2020, neither quite reaching their vast potential. Pivetta was traded to Boston for rental pitchers during the abbreviated 2020 season, while Eflin landed with the Rays after the 2022 campaign, signing the richest free agent contract in organization history. The Orioles traded for Eflin prior to the trade deadline. They meet Thursday, each better off since finding new landing spots, but neither universally rostered in ESPN standard leagues.

          Pivetta, 31, has struggled since the All-Star break, and had his most recent start skipped to give him more rest. Fantasy managers know he is unlikely to ever contend for an ERA title, but that is not why we invest. Pivetta is among the starting pitcher leaders in strikeout percentage, and there is nothing wrong with his 1.14 WHIP. Pivetta has 10 strikeouts in three of six starts, but only one win in his past eight outings. He has not faced the Orioles this season. Current Orioles are hitting .280/.330/.462 against Pivetta, but only 1B Ryan Mountcastle and OF Cedric Mullins have faced him more than 20 times. His Phillies ERA over four seasons: 5.50. Since leaving Philadelphia: 4.36.

          Eflin, 30, has won all three of his starts for the Orioles, permitting five earned runs over 19 1/3 innings (2.33 ERA), and his ERA stands at 3.83, its lowest in three months. Eflin will not match his breakout 2023 season, when he won 16 games with a 3.50 ERA and 186 strikeouts for the Rays, but he is critical to Baltimore's postseason hopes. Eflin beat the Red Sox in May, allowing three runs over five innings. Current Red Sox are hitting .375/.385/.703 against Eflin, with 3B Rafael Devers enjoying success. His Phillies ERA over seven years: 4.49. Since leaving Philadelphia: 3.64.

          Fantasy managers should stick with Eflin, despite rocky statistics against Boston, for he has scored double-digit ESPN fantasy points in four consecutive starts, and he has been reliable since leaving the Phillies. The less-reliable Pivetta offers more fantasy upside, thanks to the myriad strikeouts, but also more downside, for his inability to prevent runs, and his inefficiency. One never knows if Pivetta will deliver a 25-point fantasy gem or cost you points. He has had 10 days off, which may be a good thing, but it is pure conjecture. Eflin is the safer bet.

          What you may have missed on Wednesday

          By Todd Zola

          • Seattle Mariners OF Julio Rodriguez left last night's game for a pinch-runner after reaching on a single in the eighth. Rodriguez reportedly hurt his ankle during the at-bat. The club doesn't consider the issue to be serious, but he's not in the lineup for today's 1:10 p.m. ET afternoon affair in Comerica Park against the Detroit Tigers.

          • Houston Astros RHP Ronel Blanco experienced soreness in his left index finger after a 106.5-mph line drive glanced off his glove in the sixth inning of last night's road tilt with the Tampa Bay Rays. Blanco posted six scoreless frames but was not involved in the decision as the Astros won 2-1 in 10 innings. Even though the injury is to his non-throwing hand, Blanco is considered to be questionable for his next start, currently slated for next Tuesday at home versus the Boston Red Sox.

          • Speaking of the Red Sox, 2B Nick Sogard fouled a ball off his calf in the eighth. It tightened up between innings, so Sogard did not come out to play defense in the ninth. Sogard's injury is a reminder to check in on 2B Vaughn Grissom, currently with Triple-A Worcester. The main return from the Atlanta Braves in the Chris Sale deal, Grissom is batting just .207 in August, but he has two homers and a pair of stolen bases this month.

          • In other Boston injury news, the club indicated that OF Tyler O'Neill is just returning to baseball activities after recovering from a lower leg infection and isn't likely to return until early next week. Additionally, 1B Triston Casas could return any day. It's reportedly "his call" as to when he wants to leave Triple-A Worcester. Casas has posted a .294/.400/.559 line in August but has fanned 12 times over 40 plate appearances this month.

          • Minnesota Twins OF Byron Buxton missed his second straight game due to a hip injury. Imaging has come back clean, but Buxton is experiencing soreness. His status for tonight's road tilt is unclear. If Buxton is unable to go, manager Rocco Baldelli indicated that an IL stint is possible, with a final decision to be made by tomorrow.

          • Arizona Diamondbacks 2B Ketel Marte missed his second straight game last night. Marte aggravated an ankle injury on Monday, but the issue isn't considered to be serious. The Diamondbacks are hopeful that Marte can get better with today's off day and that he will return to action tomorrow.

          • The Oakland Athletics have placed OF Brent Rooker on the paternity list. By rule, he can miss up to three games. He missed yesterday's contest and isn't in today's lineup. At the moment, it's not known as to whether or not Rooker will rejoin the club tomorrow.

          Everything else you need to know for Thursday

          • Phillies fans surely will be watching to see how the NL East rival Braves fare in San Francisco, especially LHP Max Fried, who has walked eight hitters over two starts since returning from the injured list for forearm neuritis. Fried's ERA is up to 3.56, its highest since mid-May, and he can blame the uncharacteristic trend of recent free passes. The Giants are among the league leaders in drawing walks, but current Giants have done little with Fried, posting a .147/.247/.265 line against him in brief action. Our advice is stick with Fried and assume better control moving forward. Look for a low-scoring affair with Fried and Giants RHP Logan Webb.

          • Twins RHP Bailey Ober looks for his 10th consecutive quality start and fifth straight win, facing a sputtering Rangers lineup. Ober is averaging 24.8 ESPN fantasy points per start over the past 30 days, highest in the sport, and the Rangers continue to struggle to score runs. Ober is enjoying some BABIP love this season, with a .241 mark that is among the league leaders, and his new cutter continues to flummox hitters. Ober has permitted only 32 hits over his past 61 1/3 innings, owning a 1.76 ERA in that span.

          • As with Eflin, Dodgers RHP Jack Flaherty remains unbeaten for his new club, earning wins over the Athletics and Pirates since his recent acquisition from Detroit. Flaherty steps up in offensive class facing the Brewers, among the top run-scoring teams in the league. Opposing starter Tobias Myers boasts the lower ERA (2.79 to 2.97), but he cannot compare to Flaherty in missing bats. Flaherty continues to pile on the strikeouts, earning the best strikeout rate of his career, and he is two wins away from tying his career high of 11, set with the Cardinals in 2019.

          • Betting tip of the day: Ober has registered nine consecutive quality starts, albeit with only three coming against teams over .500. Still, a 1.76 ERA and an 0.73 WHIP with 72 strikeouts and only 13 walks over his last 61 1/3 innings is impressive. Tonight, Ober and the Twins are in Arlington for the opener of a four-game set with the Texas Rangers. The Rangers' record is below .500, in part because of a poor wOBA versus right-handers. Meanwhile, the Twins average the sixth-highest runs per game. I'm taking the Twins and the -1.5 run line (+145).

          Starting pitcher rankings for Thursday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Thursday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Thursday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Thursday