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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Tuesday

          David Peterson faces the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday and projects as one of the slate's top streamers. Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images
          • Todd Zola, FantasySep 3, 2024, 04:07 PM
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Dealing in the desert

          The Arizona Diamondbacks are atop the NL Wild Card chase and within striking distance of the NL West leading Los Angeles Dodgers. Their league-leading offense is primarily responsible, but you can't win a championship without pitching.

          Fronting the rotation is RHP Zac Gallen. Gallen is having an off year but, come playoff time, he has the experience and ability to match up with the opposing ace. The rotation recently received a huge boost with the returns of RHP Merrill Kelly and LHP Eduardo Rodriguez. There has been no sophomore slump for RHP Brandon Pfaadt, who has been consistently reliable all season.

          Rounding out the rotation is RHP Ryne Nelson. The 26-year-old is fanning more while walking fewer batters than last season. His repertoire hasn't changed, but he has added a tick of velocity and is exhibiting better control and command.

          Nelson was earmarked to be the Diamondbacks No. 5 starter, but with all of the injuries experienced by the rotation, he became an integral cog, keeping the team afloat until reinforcements arrived. Nelson's 4.22 ERA and 1.28 WHIP are close to league-average, while his 19.6% strikeout rate is below par. However, Arizona is 14-11 in his 25 outings, which is excellent for a hurler expected to fill a back-end role.

          On Tuesday, Nelson (19.9% rostered in ESPN leagues) draws a road start against the San Francisco Giants. It's a favorable matchup with Nelson squaring off against the lineup sporting the seventh-lowest wOBA and 14th-highest strikeout rate with a righty on the hill.

          What you may have missed on Monday

          • New York Yankees SP Gerrit Cole was lifted from yesterday's game after completing six innings. He came out for warmups in the seventh but experienced a cramp in his right calf and was unable to continue. Prior to leaving, Cole dominated the Texas Rangers, scattering four hits while striking out nine, with just one walk and only one run allowed. While the club hopes the injury isn't serious, when Cole will be able to take the hill again is unclear.

          • The Chicago Cubs will turn to veteran RHP Kyle Hendricks for a spot start tonight. Originally, LHP Justin Steele was ticketed to take the hill, but he reported elbow soreness yesterday and was scratched. More should be revealed concerning Steele's status today.

          • Minnesota Twins OF Max Kepler was scratched last night due to lingering soreness in his left knee. Kepler missed three games in late August because of this issue. Considering he has had just two hits in his last 21 plate appearances, the Twins may be better served to keep Kepler out until he's fully healthy. However, they're already shorthanded in the outfield with both Byron Buxton and Manuel Margot on the shelf.

          • Yesterday, it was revealed that Houston Astros OF Kyle Tucker has likely been out due to a small fracture in his shin -- and not simply a bone contusion. However, his timetable to return remains unchanged with the possibility that Tucker might play tomorrow.

          • The New York Mets put DH J.D. Martinez on the paternity list prior to last night's series opener with the Boston Red Sox. Martinez will likely miss all three meetings with his former team. In his stead, the club called up DJ Stewart. Last night, Stewart played left field with Jesse Winker handling DH duties.

          • Arizona Diamondbacks OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. missed last night's contest and could be out a little longer. He is slated for imaging on his left calf later today. The Arizona offense is earmarked for a boost with 1B Christian Walker and 2B Ketel Marte both close to returning from the IL.

          Everything else you need to know for Tuesday

          • Two games which would typically have been played on Tuesday were part of the Labor Day schedule, leaving a rare 13-game Tuesday slate. Action begins at 6:35 p.m. ET with the Baltimore Orioles hosting the Chicago White Sox. Rookie LHP Cade Povich (0.8% rostered) will take the hill for the home team. Povich has struggled in his rookie year and normally wouldn't merit a mention, but he's facing a historically poor White Sox team. Chicago is challenging the record for losses in a season, currently standing at 120 by the 1962 New York Mets. (Perhaps even more dubious is this ditty from colleague Joe Orrico who points out, "The White Sox have to go at least 5-19 over their final 24 games to avoid winning fewer games this season than they did during the shortened 2020 season.") Back to Povich, he has recorded a 7.11 ERA and a 2.05 WHIP in four starts spanning 19 innings since the break, but the White Sox offense has been a panacea for many pitchers this season.

          • Tuesday's top ranked streaming candidate is third overall on the slate. It's Mets LHP David Peterson (20.6% rostered), who will face the Boston Red Sox. This is an intriguing matchup with both clubs playing better on the road, despite having distinctive home venues that should generate an advantage. That said, the driving force of Peterson's elevated ranking is that he's facing the lineup leading MLB in strikeouts versus left-handed pitching. Peterson is coming off a solid August during which he posted a 1.86 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP, albeit with a pedestrian 27 punchouts over 38 2/3 stanzas.

          • Minnesota Twins RHP David Festa (3.6% rostered) enters Tuesday's road date with the Tampa Bay Rays on a high note. Last time out, Festa logged his first ever quality start, tossing six stanzas while allowing just two earned runs to the Atlanta Braves. Festa rung up seven hitters with only one free pass. The Rays strike out at the league's sixth highest-rate versus right-handers, fueling the second-lowest wOBA in those games.

          • Betting tip of the day: The Pittsburgh Pirates catch a big break tonight with the Cubs pivoting to Hendricks, who was supposed to begin a shift to the bullpen.Well, apparently he's needed for at least one more start. Look for OF Bryan Reynolds to take advantage. I'll take him to go over 1.5 total bases (+115).

          Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Tuesday