The Spurs' Derrick White impressively scored 18 points with 11 combined assists and rebounds in a loss to the Hornets during Tony Parker's homecoming in San Antonio on Monday evening. Parker was picked 28th in 2001 and is sure to have both his jersey in the rafters and is bound for Springfield. White was the 29th pick in 2017 and is suddenly emerging as a trusted playmaker for Gregg Popovich.
Sometimes it's wise to follow the crowd. One of the most helpful, and yet simple, metrics available to fantasy basketball managers playing on ESPN is the transaction index that reveals the most-added and most-dropped players in free agency during the past seven days.
White is the 15th-most added player in ESPN leagues the past seven days and the fourth-biggest riser among point guards. The crowd is finally warming up to White's white-hot offensive run; he's shooting 65 percent from the floor and 52.6 percent from beyond the arc for 17.3 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.6 combined blocks and steals in 31.7 MPG his past eight games, all starts.
They say to fade the public when approaching sports betting, but I find paying attention to roster percentages is a crude but effective way to identify which players are surging statistically.
I wouldn't add Rajon Rondo just because he's jumped 20 percent in the past week based on this shift alone. Rather, look deeper into the reasoning; is positive production or sizable opportunity, or the coveted blend of both, driving this market surge?
Well, no, the crowd seems to be chasing shares of Rondo because he's made some reported progress from a hand injury. In White's case, his rise is directly tied to positive play. Even when some regression hits White's profile, the blend of assists and 3-pointers he's capable of helps confirm his ascent as a fantasy asset.
Monday recap
Highlights
Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans: 46 points (16-34 FG), 16 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals, 1 TO
Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz: 18 points (6-9 FG), 25 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 blocks, 1 TO
James Harden, Houston Rockets: 57 points (17-33 FG), 9 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, 5 TO
D'Angelo Russell, Brooklyn Nets: 34 points (13-26 FG), 5 rebounds, 7 assists, 5 TO
Lowlights
Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies: 5 points (2-5 FG), 7 rebounds, 4 assists, 7 TO
Gordon Hayward, Boston Celtics: 3 points (1-6 FG), 2 rebounds, 3 assists
CJ McCollum, Portland Trail Blazers: 6 points (2-14 FG), 6 rebounds, 1 assist, 3 TO
Monday takeaways
Davis delivered his 10th career 45-15 game, the sixth most in NBA history, per Elias. Davis now has four straight games with at least 30 points, tying the longest streak of his career. While there will always still be some worry over Davis' durability, he's second on the Player Rater for the season, and it might just take more to acquire him in fantasy leagues at this point than in the actual NBA.
Donovan Mitchell produced 28 points on 21 shots for his sixth consecutive game with at least 25 points, the longest such streak of his career and the longest scoring stretch from a Jazz player since Karl Malone in Feb. 2000. Just like last season, it seems Utah is warming up in the heart of winter, with Gobert tying his career rebounding high in securing his 36th double-double in 45 games this year. If anyone is selling low on Mitchell after an inefficient start to the season, I'd buy some positive regression coming his way from beyond the arc.
In the Rockets' 112-94 win over the Grizzlies, Harden scored 57 points in 34 minutes, tied for the second most in a game in Rockets history. Harden holds the franchise record with 60 and now has three of the four highest-scoring performances in team history. It was Harden's 12th career 50-point game, tied with LeBron James for the sixth-most in NBA history. It was also Harden's 17th straight 30-point game, the longest streak by any NBA player since Wilt Chamberlain in 1963-64 (20 straight). It also gave Harden his third 50-point game of the season, the fourth time in the past 10 seasons a player has had at least three 50-point games in a single season. In each of the previous three instances, the player went on to win the MVP. Per Second Spectrum, Harden averaged 1.82 points per chance in isolation last night, his most in a game this season and the most by any player in a game this season with a minimum of 10 plays. Harden shot 67 percent (12-of-18) in isolation, his best in a game this season.
I'm ready to move on from Hayward in most fantasy formats. This might appear dramatic for a player on a maximum contract with Boston who is rostered in more than 90 percent of ESPN leagues as of Tuesday morning, but consider that the veteran forward is ranked 122nd on the Player Rater as a peer of the likes of Garrett Temple (rostered in 3.1 percent of leagues), Mikal Bridges (4.3 percent), and Josh Hart (21.9 percent). Against the Timberwolves two weeks ago, Hayward scored 35 points on 18 shots in what appeared to be some momentum for a player working his way back to form after suffering a season-ending ankle injury in his debut with Boston last fall. Since then, including last night's ugly outing, the Butler product has averaged 9.8 PPG on 40.7 percent from the field, akin to his sluggish overall clip of 10.9 PPG on 41.8 percent from the floor for the season. I'd rather roster Tomas Satoransky and Bogdan Bogdanovic to name a few from just a cursory appraisal of widely available players outperforming Hayward in nearly every fashion.
A fun nugget from ESPN Stats & Info is that today's date in 1965 witnessed one of the biggest trades in league history, as the San Francisco Warriors, in the middle of a then-league-record 17-game losing streak, traded Chamberlain to the Philadelphia 76ers in exchange for Connie Dierking, Lee Shaffer, Paul Neumann and cash. The 1966-67 NBA champion Sixers, led by Chamberlain and Hal Greer, is widely regarded as one of the greatest teams ever.
Injuries of note
Houston's Clint Capela is expected to miss roughly six weeks with a thumb injury, per ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski. There isn't a replacement for Capela's role or production pattern on the Rockets' roster, suggesting the team will continue to funnel the offense through Harden, adding value to the likes of Austin Rivers (who played 39 minutes and took 12 shots last night) and even Danuel House Jr. in deeper leagues. Investors in Capela might want to look to Jaren Jackson Jr. of Memphis or even the Suns' Richaun Holmes in deeper leagues.
Gasol's ugly line for Memphis last night was in part due to a hand injury that he told reporters caused some numbness and issues with gripping the ball, thus the seven turnovers and his struggles from the stripe last night. It's unclear if this ailment will cost Gasol any time.
Minnesota's Robert Covington will miss tonight's return to South Philly with a knee ailment that could last a few more games. Josh Okogie will get more run in his place but isn't yet a fantasy factor.
The Suns' Devin Booker is considered probable to return to action tonight against the Pacers in Indianapolis after missing the past three games due to back spasms.
Analytics advantage for Tuesday
The top two teams in the Western Conference will face off for the first time since October 21 when the Nuggets beat the Warriors 100-98. Juan Hernangomez blocked Damian Jones' layup attempt to seal the win. Denver is 6-9 against the Warriors since Steve Kerr became head coach in 2014-15. That is the second-best record versus Golden State over that span.
The Warriors must stop or at least slow Nikola Jokic, who is averaging 7.5 assists per game, most by a seven-footer since Chamberlain in his heyday. The Joker's passing abilities could pose a problem for Golden State, as the Warriors have allowed four games of 20 points, 10 rebounds and 5 assists to starting centers this season, most in the NBA. Jokic has recorded 20 points, 10 rebounds and 5 assists in 12 games this season, tied for the second-most in the NBA (only Giannis Antetokounmpo has more).
Given the Warriors' lack of interior size and rim protection (at least until DeMarcus Cousins returns, which could be as soon as this coming weekend), Jokic makes for a marquee DFS investment in a game that is lined up to be competitive and high scoring based on Vegas indicators; the game is set with a point total of 228 with the Warriors favored by one in Denver tonight.
Given this fertile fantasy climate, stacking this game with the likes of Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Jokic and complementary players on each roster could prove profitable.
Top players to watch tonight
With Covington ailing, we miss out on a marquee matchup between him and Jimmy Butler, who has assumed the role of key on-ball stopper for the Sixers in the wake of the November trade that saw this defensive forwards swapped. Butler has some appeal as a narrative play tonight in daily fantasy competition, but this game will also feature a showdown between Joel Embiid and Karl-Anthony Towns, who are two of the four players averaging at least 22 PPG and 12 RPG this season, along with Davis and Antetokounmpo.
In the wake the trade, KAT has been a fantasy force, just recently producing a career-best 27 rebounds. Embiid, meanwhile, is posting scoring, rebounding and block rates this season only currently matched by the Pelicans' Davis and, before them, Shaquille O'Neal in 1999.