In what qualifies as the first truly huge fantasy football story of 2015, the Buffalo Bills have agreed to trade for LeSean McCoy. In return, the Philadelphia Eagles will acquire linebacker Kiko Alonso.
McCoy was a slight disappointment for the Eagles in 2014, and for his fantasy owners. After winning his first rushing title in '13 and racking up 2,146 yards from scrimmage to go with 11 touchdowns, Shady struggled in September behind the Eagles' badly depleted offensive line, and regularly tried to do too much as his mediocre runs mounted. As Philly's blockers started to return to health, McCoy's tape looked more representative of his skills and his numbers improved: He registered at least 80 yards rushing in nine of his team's final 12 games.
But Darren Sproles frustrated fantasy owners with several huge plays from scrimmage and siphoned a career-best six rushing TDs from McCoy. Later in the year, Shady suffered the ignominy of coming off the field in short-yardage situations so the immortal Chris Polk could come on and steal bunnies. McCoy wound up with a respectable 1,319 rushing yards (still third-most in the NFL), but dipped from 52 receptions in '13 to 28 in '14, and posted only 155 receiving yards. Plus, he found the end zone only five times. As a result, the consensus top-three overall fantasy pick finished as the league's No. 13 fantasy running back.
But I wouldn't say McCoy's tape portrays a player on the decline. Did Chip Kelly see something in Shady's game that made him decide to take him out of goal-line situations? More importantly, will McCoy's new coach Rex Ryan see the same thing? It's possible. Fred Jackson is 34 and has a hard time staying healthy, but if he sticks with the Bills he's an obvious candidate for short-yardage carries. Even if Jackson leaves, Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown figure to be on hand. (C.J. Spiller is a free agent who won't be re-signed.) Plus Buffalo's offensive line desperately needs upgrades on its right side, and can't hold a candle to Philly's when the Eagles' line is healthy. But Shady still has jumping-bean quickness and more than enough long speed to make big plays when he does get into the open. I'm not concerned that Kelly knows something the rest of the NFL doesn't. I think the Eagles simply didn't want to pay nearly $12 million worth of cap space on a running back, and saw a chance to get a young linebacker that Kelly coached at the University of Oregon. McCoy was my preseason No. 9 fantasy RB before this trade, and he stays inside my top 10 RBs in Buffalo, where Ryan's ground-and-pound philosophy should have a new lead dog.
In Philly, the last men standing are Sproles and Polk. Anyone assuming Sproles will now assume a starter's touches is, I think, barking up the wrong tree. We're still talking about a player who has never eclipsed 100 carries in any of his eight NFL seasons. He stands 5-foot-6 and will be 32 in June. Sproles is still more likely to be the guy who drains fantasy points away from someone, rather than the guy you feel great relying on every week.
Polk weighs 222 pounds and he found the end zone four times last year, but he's got 57 carries in 36 career games. It's possible Kelly now believes Polk can be his lead back, and if that turns out to be the case, Polk will rightly generate some fantasy hype in Philly's up-tempo offense. But I'm skeptical. On tape, I see a straight-ahead thumper who doesn't fit the in-space evader Kelly likes or the quick-twitch, one-cut mover who excels in the outside zone. He had some fine moments in 2014, but even his better plays were more like veering, momentum runs than quick, evasive ones. (He does have some nice top-end speed for a man his size, though.) At the moment, I believe Polk will remain a piece of the puzzle rather than a lead runner, and that the Eagles will acquire a third back. If that doesn't happen, I'll reconsider Polk's fantasy value.
Finally, a word about Alonso. He missed all of last season with a torn ACL, but was a heck of a sideline-to-sideline player as a rookie with the Bills in '13. In Philly, he figures to replace the largely ineffective (and injured) DeMeco Ryans at inside linebacker. With Mychal Kendricks at the other ILB spot, the Eagles now have a duo who can really run. Those who play in IDP leagues will want to watch this tandem develop. It's possible they split tackles to such an extent that neither guy maintains an elite level, but it's fair to dream of a Patrick Willis/NaVorro Bowman kind of arrangement.