Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you're torn between two similar players and simply don't know which one to start, start the player with the superior matchup.
Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
Let's get the bad news response out of the way first: Week 1 is the toughest week as far as evaluating matchups. It's commonplace for fantasy analysis to rely heavily upon the previous year's statistics, even though that completely ignores how quickly and dramatically the game changes, especially over a seven-month offseason.
The matchup ranks below provide a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
For Week 4, 2024 full-season data is used, but once five weeks are in the books, only the most recent five weeks' numbers will be used.
"Adj. FPA," or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how far above or below players' weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my -- and the ESPN fantasy staff's -- most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
All references to fantasy points are for PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars). It's quite the contrast in matchups for Stroud between last week's and this one, as Brian Flores' Minnesota Vikings defense had him baffled and distressed all day, whereas the Jaguars, in Week 3, surrendered more fantasy points to Josh Allen in the game's first half (28.08 of 30.92 overall for the day) than all but six other quarterbacks have had in a complete game. Yes, the Jaguars defense was depleted by the absences of cornerback Tyson Campbell and safety Darnell Savage, but this unit also surrendered the eighth-most fantasy points to the position in the season's first two weeks. Even with Savage expected back, Stroud should shred this defense, as he did in their two meetings last season (51.46 total points).
Others to like: Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (vs. Washington Commanders); Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (vs. Los Angeles Rams).
Matchup to avoid: Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers). One of the league's biggest disappointments thus far, Richardson's passing game has left plenty to be desired, as in each of the past two weeks he had the league's worst completion percentage over expected (per Next Gen Stats) as well as a bottom-nine off-target rate. That's a huge problem when he's next slated to face a Steelers defense that has afforded quarterbacks the fourth-fewest fantasy points per passing attempt (0.20). By the way, the Steelers rank top 10 in pass rush win rate, and Richardson has been one of the league's least-productive players when pressured during his young career (0.24 points per snap).
Running backs
Matchups highlight: Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns (at Las Vegas Raiders). This one comes with a caveat, in that Ford is dealing with a knee injury that demands his managers add D'Onta Foreman as a prospective plug-and-play insurance policy. But even at less than full strength, Ford could put forth a meaningful fantasy point total. The Raiders, through three weeks, have surrendered the second-most PPR fantasy points to the position, as well as 20-plus-point performances to lower-ranked players J.K. Dobbins (Week 1) and Chuba Hubbard (Week 3). Most notably, the Raiders have surrendered four runs of 20-plus yards to opponents, tied for second most, and remember that Ford had five of those last season (plus as one in Week 2).
Others to like: Devin Singletary, New York Giants (vs. Dallas Cowboys, "Thursday Night Football"); Zack Moss, Cincinnati Bengals (at Carolina Panthers).
Matchup to avoid: Kenneth Walker III/Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks (at Detroit Lions, "Monday Night Football"). Speaking of injury-risk situations, Walker's oblique issue, which has cost him each of the past two weeks, clouds this matchup that rates the absolute worst at the position. Should Walker play, presumably leading to some sort of timeshare, neither back will have much more than flex appeal. If Charbonnet has the backfield to himself for a third straight week, he'll be in for his toughest assignment of 2024 thus far. The Lions have surrendered by far the fewest PPR fantasy points to the position (8.8 per game), including only 17.7 combined to top-11 ADP running backs Kyren Williams and Rachaad White.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Philadelphia Eagles). Godwin has scored at least 17.3 PPR fantasy points in each of his three games, joining Rashee Rice as the only wide receivers who can claim that, and he has been the most dominating slot receiver thus far, scoring 71% of his total points while lined up in that spot. That's important in this matchup, because while the Eagles have been one of the league's overall worst performing defenses against the position, they've been especially poor defending those who line up in the slot. Working out of that alignment, Jayden Reed scored 31.2 of his 33.1 points in Week 1, Darnell Mooney 11.1 of his 17.8 in Week 2 and Chris Olave 8.3 of his 20.6 in Week 3.
Others to like: Rome Odunze, Bears (vs. Rams); Jauan Jennings, San Francisco 49ers (vs. New England Patriots).
Matchup to avoid: Garrett Wilson, New York Jets (vs. Denver Broncos). The No. 7 wide receiver and No. 12 player overall selected on average in drafts in the preseason, Wilson draws a "sit" recommendation for Week 4. It's entirely matchups driven, as the Broncos have been the toughest defense against opposing WR1s (minus-8.3 Adj. FPA), thanks almost entirely to the play of cornerback Pat Surtain II. DK Metcalf (Week 1), George Pickens (Week 2) and Mike Evans (Week 3) have been the receivers most commonly lined up against Surtain the past three weeks, and in 59 such routes, those three combined for only seven targets and 10.3 PPR fantasy points on those plays.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: Cole Kmet, Bears (vs. Rams). Struggling rookie quarterback Caleb Williams showed quite the rapport with Kmet while playing from behind in Week 3, a signal that the tight end should continue to be a big part of the team's game plan, especially with the run game a mess and top wide receiver DJ Moore struggling to find openings in the defense. A matchup with the Rams presents another excellent opportunity for Kmet, as they have surrendered the most PPR fantasy points per target to the position (2.49).
Matchup to avoid: Dallas Goedert, Eagles (at Buccaneers). The Eagles' passing game is in a rough spot for Week 4, with A.J. Brown (hamstring) and DeVonta Smith (in the league's concussion protocol) big question marks, which could leave Goedert as their most reliable healthy pass catcher. Goedert saw a team-high 11 targets last week, including three of a teamwide five after Smith's departure, and a similar workload might be in line again if both Brown and Smith sit. That said, the Buccaneers have been one of the league's best against the position through three weeks, affording tight ends the fourth-fewest PPR fantasy points (4.3), including holding Sam LaPorta to 3.3 points in Week 2.