Fantasy football is a passion for many. Sometimes that passion pushes fantasy managers to make emotional decisions even when the data would suggest otherwise. Each week during the 2024 NFL season, Liz Loza will attempt to strike a balance between what the numbers state and what the heart wants. This is called Facts vs. Feelings.
The transition from summer to fall always feels clunky. Or maybe stifling is a better word? That certainly seems to be the case from a meteorological point of view. Google any temperature map of America and you'll discover an illustration of our nation's contiguous states awash in dark orange and deep reds. I can't remember if this heat wave is typical for the whole of the country or if the triple digits we're expecting in Southern California have skewed my perception. Regardless, the calendar flip from Aug. 31 to Sept. 1 doesn't scream tank tops to turtlenecks.
It's not just the weather, either. Schools return to session. Workplaces send out email blasts about deadlines related to fiscal calendars. Traffic patterns crawl with heavy predictability. It's like our whole system of constructs decided that September should exist as the Monday of months, allowing August to move from laid-back brunch to Sunday scaries over 31 (increasingly) short(er) days. And we're all just expected (maybe even prodded) to march forward, pretending as though the fun and freedom of summer evaporated with the flip of a single calendar page.
I hate it. I have always hated it. Even in college when the pseudo-independent me couldn't wait to escape my mom's (rent-free) home and (totally acceptable) list of chores. Even then -- at my most motivated -- the "back at it" vibes of early autumn bumped as pugnacious. What is the rush? Can we please employ a modicum of societal ease? Ever?! I need more than a clever "Gilmore Girls" meme and a sale on my favorite rosé to effortlessly glide from one season to another.
I know this about myself. I've also come to accept that the world cares little about my autumnal objections. Rather than waste energy trying to change this firmly fixed rule (there are other established ways worth punching at), I set out to adapt. The solution is not particularly unique, as an estimated 17 million Americans also employ the same strategy, but it works for me. I split. And have been doing so for nearly a decade.
This annual Labor Day weekend getaway -- which takes up dedicated space in the family budget, reflecting my seriousness about the need for such an excursion -- has evolved over time. We never get on a plane, but we do drive off to explore nearby locales, promising to fully exhale the summer before belly-breathing our way into the fall. We've added bodies to our cavalcade, linking up with the same group of friends (who have, in turn, invited more participants) for the past five years.
Together, we share a house, bringing along board games and books while devising menus and not much else. We all stayed in Palm Springs this go-round. It was a deliciously boring three days of chlorine-soaked cannonballs, blended beverages, stupidly sticky s'mores, midday naps, fantasy football drafts, flushed cheeks, tanned shoulders, clear night skies, unabashed amusement and snuggles.
We casually chatted about investing in a desert property of our own. A SoCal commune we could collectively customize. My friend Jonathan remarked that the reason he enjoys Palm Springs so much is because "there's nothing really to do" (though don't tell the incredibly creative tourism board that), which forces him (and us) to just "lean back." I don't know if we'll ever commit to owning an abode in Agua Caliente. The responsibility might wind up the wind down. Regardless, the days spent lounging and laughing provided the perfect seasonal bookend, allowing us to receive, rather than being thrust into, what's ahead.
With rest and clarity, this week is welcome. It's been what many of us have been waiting for. We can unfurl our fake football rosters with supreme confidence and optimism. Nothing has gone wrong yet; unless you drafted in June, but that's on you. Enjoy this feeling. Because it's more fleeting than a weekend away or even that aforementioned Labor Day sale. Now is the time for rose-colored glasses and decisive action. Do not wring hands about matchups and depth charts. That behavior will be called into existence on Tuesday of next week and will last through the end of December.
What this doesn't mean, however, is that whilst watching the games on Thursday, Friday, Sunday and Monday (well done, NFL) you can't keep on eye on more than your own starters. Hopefully, the long weekend equipped you with the energetic space to remain present while contemplating the dominoes that could tumble as a result of the gridiron's goings-on. The fact is there will be surprises. How you cope with the resulting feelings will determine much more than your team's outcome.
Trust in your choices, unclench and know there's a new season starting ... now.
Liz Loza's Week 1 watch list
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars: Lawrence is rostered in just over 50% of ESPN fantasy leagues, so, assuming you play in a single-QB league, you're probably not starting him. It's wild, though, that a player who was drafted inside the top 10 signal-callers (55.0 ADP) in 2023 can fall 10 positional spots a year later. That precipitous plunge illustrates the incredible infusion of young QB talent, as well as the burn of recency bias.
Admittedly, Lawrence -- who had been a favorite to unlock the next level of his development -- disappointed in his third pro effort, barely clearing 4,000 passing yards and recording a paltry 21 passing TDs (QB15). Interestingly, however, the 24-year-old registered a career-high 8.2 air yards per attempt (QB8) and logged nine throws over 40 yards. His turnovers increased, which could be attributed to struggles with downfield accuracy but also coincided with the timing of various injuries.
For example, 11 of Lawrence's 14 interceptions occurred after he sustained an MCL sprain in Week 7. Additionally, Lawrence managed an off-target rate of 26% while playing through late-season injuries (after maintaining an off-target rate of just 13% when healthy at the top of the season). These physical constraints clearly had a negative effect on Lawrence's production, as he averaged 17.1 fantasy points per game before the knee issue and 14.4 after.
The 2021 No. 1 pick heads into 2024 back to health and with a refreshed wide receiver corps. As 3.5-point underdogs in what's expected to be a high-scoring game (48.5) in Miami, Lawrence figures to use his big arm frequently. He's likely to use his legs, too. After all, Lawrence snuck into the top 10 QBs in rushes (70), rushing yards (339) and rushing scores (4) last season. Don't be surprised by a top-15 fantasy QB finish in Week 1. A comeback might be brewing.
Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints: I spent much of July and August yelling about and pointing at Kamara's fourth-round value. Apparently, folks listened because his ADP shot up, making him the 12th running back selected in PPR formats. At 29 years old, Kamara's legs won't stay fresh forever, but he figures to start the season delivering low-end RB1 numbers.
Kendre Miller's hamstring issues landed the 22-year-old on the IR, which means Kamara and Jamaal Williams are set to handle the bulk of their team's backfield duties. Williams posted a career effort in 2022 but regressed mightily in 2023. In fact, he registered the second-lowest yards per carry (2.9) out of 53 qualified players last season.
There is simply zero threat to Kamara's opportunity share (which has exceeded 70% for three consecutive campaigns). Given the former Vol's pass-catching prowess (5.8 receptions per game, RB2), Kamara is likely to log 18 touches in Week 1. Those opportunities should bear fantasy fruit, especially noting that the Panthers allowed the allowed the fourth-most rushing yards and 24 total scores to opposing RBs in 2023.
Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler, Washington Commanders RB committee: Robinson posted low-end RB2 fantasy numbers in his sophomore outing, leading Washington's backfield in snaps and carries (12 per game, RB32). After he surprised as a receiver (10.2 YPR, RB1), there was excitement the Alabama product might take on an every-down role with Antonio Gibson set to be a free agent at the close of last season. That optimism was short-lived, as the Commandeers quickly added Ekeler, setting up a low-key debate among fantasy managers.
Robinson proved to be the more popular back, garnering a late eighth-round ADP while Ekeler fell to the early 10th. The situation remains muddy, but it does appear as though Robinson is the favorite to emerge as the team's 1A, working as a power option on early downs. That doesn't mean, however, that Ekeler won't be involved. Per numerous camp observations, the former Charger is back to health and shows no signs of having lost a step. Reuniting with Anthony Lynn, Ekeler remains one of the best pass-catching RBs in the NFL, registering at least 50 receptions for five straight campaigns.
That means managers are likely to spend precious energy trying to predict game flow. The Commanders open the season as 3.5-point underdogs at Tampa Bay, which suggests Washington will be chasing points. With Jayden Daniels making his pro debut, expect a high number of dump-offs, with Ekeler collecting the bulk of the pass-catching opportunities. Both RBs enter Week 1 on the RB2/RB3 bubble for fantasy purposes, though Ekeler has the edge in PPR-friendly formats.
Ray Davis, RB, Buffalo Bills: Davis is rostered in 14% of ESPN fantasy leagues, so no one is starting him, but everyone should be watching what he does in Week 1. Davis and Ty Johnson have been engaged in a fierce camp battle, vying for the backup role behind James Cook. Davis -- who is a better complement to Cook -- should net more touches than Johnson.
The fourth-round rookie out of Kentucky (by way of Vanderbilt and Temple) is in possession of an intriguing combination of elusiveness and power. Regularly showcasing above-average change-of-direction skills and determination through tackles, Davis rushed his way to All-SEC honors as a Wildcat in 2023. Given Cook's composition and the team's subsequent reluctance to use him inside the 5-yard line (just four goal-line touches in 2023, RB22), Davis could grow into the role previously meant for Damien Harris (and, to a lesser extent, Latavius Murray).
He might not command top-24 fantasy RB appeal immediately, but the potential No. 2 running back on a Josh Allen offense is certainly worth tracking. And it doesn't hurt that the Bills are 6.5-point favorites versus the Cardinals on Sunday. Monitor those carries (and catches)!
Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants: Kudos to Daniel Dopp for initially alerting me to the absolutely irrational gulf between Marvin Harrison Jr.'s ADP and that which belonged to Nabers. Given the limitations of New York's offense, the LSU product deserved to be ranked below Harrison, but the former Tiger's prodigious talents in tandem with his projected volume command top-20 positional consideration. If you also believe in Nabers' ceiling and bought into his fourth-round price tag (up 13% in the past seven days!) then welcome to Week 1. We're about to be either very right or horribly wrong.
I spent the first 10 paragraphs of this column proclaiming the virtues of early-season enthusiasm, and I don't plan on making Nabers the exception. The man averaged 120.7 receiving yards per game in 2023. He is, assuredly, talented enough to win on his own. Thankfully, his matchup versus the Vikings should springboard him into comfortable production.
The point spread is a tight 1.5, suggesting a good amount of back-and-forth between the teams. Additionally, Minnesota's cornerbacks room has been banged up for months. Shaquill Griffin (hamstring) just returned to practice two weeks ago, while Stephon Gilmore spent the offseason recovering from shoulder surgery. Nabers figures to draw primary coverage from Gilmore, who is on his fifth team in five years. Nabers' youth could be offset by Gilmore's rust, helping to ease the rookie into the league and fantasy football stardom.
Diontae Johnson, WR, Carolina Panthers: Johnson has comeback potential, but the rebound is not likely to hit in Week 1. Like all things, the David Canales Experienceâ„¢ and the subsequent Bryce Young evolution will take time to materialize. After all, the Panthers' offense averaged 5.5 yards per pass attempt (worst in the NFL) in 2023. Up is the only direction. How high and how quick the climb, however, remains to be seen.
The fact that Johnson figures to draw shadow coverage from Marshon Lattimore doesn't help his chances of immediately cracking the top 30 fantasy wideouts. New Orleans systematically shut down perimeter receivers last season, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs in 2023. In fact, Lattimore recorded a target rate of just 10.5%, demonstrating opposing QBs' reluctance to throw at receivers assigned to the veteran corner's coverage. With a top-five strength of schedule, Johnson should find his footing in Carolina, but patience will be key to unlocking (and benefiting from) his eventual resurgence.
Noah Fant, TE, Seattle Seahawks: A wonderful amount of discussion has transpired regarding the surprising depth at tight end over the past few months. Managers no longer feel forced to reluctantly stream the position. Uncovering sleepers, however, remains good fun. Enter Noah Fant.
A player with first-round pedigree, Fant has yet to unlock the red zone prowess he flaunted during his time as a Hawkeye. Still, Seattle's new regime chose to re-sign the 26-year-old to a two-year deal worth $21 million this past March. Interestingly, Fant recorded a catch rate of 74% (TE6) in 2023. His target share was a meager 8%, but that was largely because he was splitting snaps with Colby Parkinson and Will Dissly, both of whom have since exited Seattle.
Locked in as the team's TE1, Fant could thrive in Ryan Grubb's system. Assuming he's past the foot issue that plagued him in early August, he'll have a shot to shine in a revenge game versus the Broncos on Sunday. Denver allowed the most fantasy points to opposing TEs in 2023, making Fant a sneaky play to open the season.