As Seattle Sounders owner Adrian Hanauer was discussing his midseason decision to replace manager Sigi Schmid with assistant Brian Schmetzer, he made a frank admission.
"At the time, you never know if it's the right decision [to change managers]," he told ESPN FC via telephone. "When it works out, then you know it was a good decision. When it doesn't work, you look like a dumbass."
Suffice it to say, both Seattle and Saturday's other MLS Cup finalist, Toronto FC, are looking pretty smart when it comes to their choice of manager. As is often the case with new managers, both Schmetzer and Toronto's Greg Vanney were hired to turn their respective clubs around, though the circumstances were very different.
When Vanney was hired little more than two years ago, he was asked to reverse a club history that had known only losing. Eight managers before him -- including two of the interim variety -- had tried and failed. And Vanney had no illusions as to what he was getting into. He had been working as an assistant GM and academy director in Toronto under GM Tim Bezbatchenko.
"I could feel that within the club, that we still couldn't get out of our own way and believe enough in what we were doing to be able to start to shift the tide in the other direction, where the culture of winning could be what we're doing," Vanney said on a conference call with reporters. "That's a long process. That doesn't happen overnight."
So how did he and the rest of the TFC staff do it? Vanney spoke of having a plan, and the right people to execute it. There needs to be enough success to convince people that the current path is correct, while also learning from mistakes.
"It takes some time, but honestly as an entire club -- not just me -- we've done an amazing job of being able to shift that paradigm in just a couple of years," he said.
They have indeed. With the help of Bezbatchenko, Vanney and some astute player signings, Toronto has made progress in each of Vanney's full seasons in charge. Last season TFC made the playoffs for the first time in its history, and 2016 has witnessed the breakthrough, with the club becoming the first Canadian side to reach the MLS Cup final.
Yet at the time of his hiring, Vanney seemed an unlikely choice. His coaching career had been spent primarily at the academy level, though there was a stint as an assistant with Chivas USA under current TFC assistant Robin Fraser. But it was Vanney's experience at youth level, along with a varied playing career that saw him play in MLS and in Ligue 1 with Bastia, that convinced Bezbatchenko to hire from within.
"Greg isn't the kind of coach who comes up to my office and says, 'So-and-so isn't good, let's trade him,'" Bezbatchenko told ESPN FC. "He's a guy that is willing to commit to a player and develop him over the course of a season or multiple seasons, so that they can improve. Now you can't always do that, and there are times when an opportunity comes to improve our roster by trading, but now that we've reached a certain level of stability and level of player on the field, I think Greg is committed to his guys, and he'll defend them even when an opportunity does come up."
Given TFC's barren history, that stability has immense value. Players like Nick Hagglund, Eriq Zavaleta and Jonathan Osorio have grown into consistent contributors, and it explains in part why the club stuck with Vanney after a painful exit in the 2015 playoffs against the Montreal Impact. Bezbatchenko admitted that he has received plenty of unsolicited advice about the Toronto managerial position, but that there were "no conversations with any other coach whatsoever during Greg's tenure."
Midfielder Will Johnson has now seen three young MLS managers up close. He won an MLS Cup with Real Salt Lake when Jason Kreis was just getting started. He took home another last season under Caleb Porter in Portland. He's hoping to make it a treble under Vanney.
"There's a lot of similarities from that perspective, where they are still working through their identities and how they're going to set up their teams," said Johnson of his last three managers. "Greg's very tactically detailed. Nothing is overlooked. Everything is done and worked on in training. We do a lot more things on the field versus video sessions, but it's very thorough, very detailed. I've been very impressed by Greg."
Along the way, Bezbatchenko has seen growth in Vanney's ability to adapt to different situations.
"I think he's always been good about making in-game adjustments," he said. "At the same time, there's marrying the idealistic way to play with the pragmatism of what works in MLS. I think that's one of the biggest changes, understanding when things are going to look great and you're going to be able to execute as you envisioned it or grind it out and get the job done. I think he's done an increasingly better job of when to do either."
While Vanney's task had a longer time horizon, Schmetzer's was more triage-like in nature. At the time of his hiring in late July, the playoffs seemed well out of reach. Seattle had averaged one point per game and was in ninth place in the Western Conference.
"We said, 'All you have to do is double that, and integrate a couple of new players, and then you should be good to go,'" Seattle GM Garth Lagerwey quipped before turning serious. "It was a mammoth task."
It was one that was aided by the arrival of midfielder Nicolas Lodeiro, and the return from injury of defender Roman Torres. The shutting down of Clint Dempsey due to heart-related issues was a blow, but one that Schmetzer and the players managed to navigate.
Hanauer and Lagerwey both went to great lengths to laud Schmetzer's man-management skills. The temptation is to think that this is where Schmid fell short, though Schmetzer insists it wasn't that black and white. He noted that he's been on championship teams where the locker room was divided, and others that had great locker rooms yet fell short on the field. He recalled that the 2014 Seattle side that won the Supporters' Shield followed the lead of Dempsey and Obafemi Martins and "everyone else was along for the ride." This side had to weather more ups and downs.
"I'm not sure it would be fair to characterize that this group was completely lost," Schmetzer told ESPN FC via telephone. "But I think that midway through the season, we refocused, I would call it. Just reminded them that, 'Look, you guys are the ones that do all the hard work, so you have to reward yourself for the hard work you do.' And then give them ownership of the team. I think it shifted the thinking a little bit, but I think it would be unfair to say that it was a disaster early on. It was just a reminder of how good they could be."
Schmid had been the only coach that midfielder Brad Evans had in his pro career. As Evans put it, the two "won a s--- ton of games together" including an MLS Cup and Supporters' Shield double with the Columbus Crew back in 2008. Evans still feels a huge amount of loyalty to Schmid, but also lauded the job Schmetzer has done.
"Some guys in the locker room were excited for a change, and in saying that, when things start to go your way, it's a snowball effect," he said. "The group has rallied behind [Schmetzer], but he's been the group's No. 1 fan, so that's helped us go in the right direction."
Schmetzer's apprenticeship was certainly different from Vanney's, in that he had been the Sounders head coach at USL level for seven seasons in the 2000s. At Hanauer's urging, Schmid hired Schmetzer as his assistant, a partnership that lasted for seven-plus years.
"I think the years with Sigi made Brian more of the complete package as an MLS coach," said Hanauer. "Brian's team-building, his mentality, his work ethic always has been fantastic. I think his knowledge of the league, of the structure, of the players, of what it takes to win, of preparation for an MLS game and an MLS season, and managing some higher-profile players, I think that evolved immensely over the last seven, eight years."
Schmetzer added, "I learned a ton from Sig. How you handle things and how you organize things and what the expectations are opened my eyes a little bit. So there was a lot of that stuff, plenty of stuff that I garnered from him. And I hope it was reciprocal. I hope Sig learned some things from me too because I thought we had a good relationship."
Schmetzer said that he still chats on occasion with his old mentor. The two met for coffee in late September when Seattle traveled down to Los Angeles for a game against the Galaxy. Lately, there have been congratulatory texts. But it's time to look forward, and it's clearly now Schmetzer's team. He had the interim tag removed when the team reached the playoffs.
"It was almost like being superstitious," said Seattle owner Joe Roth. "'If we make him the coach [before reaching the playoffs], what if the team doesn't play as well or he doesn't feel the same inspiration that he did?' We decided to wait until we made the playoffs. The interim tag was very real, but the turnaround was so abrupt that it was clear he was the guy to get the job."
Vanney and Schmetzer seem to be from the same mold in some ways. Both exude a quiet confidence, but as former pros still have that competitive fire. Vanney let some of that out during the Reds' second-leg triumph over Montreal in the Eastern Conference finals. Schmetzer was nearly overcome with emotion after the Western Conference finals triumph over the Colorado Rapids.
Both coaches have also been good fits for the respective cities. Canadian clubs in MLS can fly under the radar at times, but the team still gets plenty of attention.
"I think Toronto is the hardest soccer market in our league in terms of media and scrutiny," said Bezbatchenko. "I think it's higher and you've seen that with the carousel of coaches that have come through TFC. I think Vanney's demeanor and quiet confidence has lent itself well to managing this market and the scrutiny and lack of positive attention you might get."
Seattle gets its share of attention as well, but Schmetzer, a Seattle native, is a Sounder through and through. He played in the club's NASL incarnation in the 1980s, coached it during the USL years, and has done so once again in MLS.
"Schmetzer is soft-spoke and gets results," said Roth. "He believes in the equality of the team and the equality of the players, and has a kind of equilibrium that seems to fit well with Seattle."
The coaching profession is fickle. Potential failure is never too far away. But come Saturday, either Vanney or Schmetzer will receive the ultimate validation.