It's Tuesday and the weekend's action in the books, so it's time to react with fire or cool the jets on some NBL takes.
Kane Pitman, Olgun Uluc and Peter Hooley are here to decide... is this just a headline, or is it a genuine storyline?
NEW ZEALAND HOSTING BRISBANE ON FRIDAY NIGHT IS THE BIGGEST GAME OF THE SEASON
Peter Hooley: Storyline
This game basically either ends one team's season or makes the remaining games incredibly exciting with many possibilities. For the sake of us all enjoying chaos, if Brisbane manage to win in New Zealand then once again we are going to potentially see someone's season end because of percentage. It seems to happen every single season and it becomes hard for fans to cope with the fact that they're team may be missing out on the postseason by a couple of points here or there. That's what happened with United last season and we could very well see New Zealand having to beat Adelaide in the final game of the regular season by a certain number just to get into the play-in. I don't want to get too excited for the chaos because if New Zealand does what they need to do and controls home court, it would likely be the end of Brisbane for NBL24.
Kane Pitman: Storyline
How can you argue otherwise as of right now? For New Zealand, it will be win and you're in. For Brisbane....well they need a little more help due to their lowly percentage. The teams have split two meetings this season, with the Breakers win on the 27th of December coming behind 18 points and nine free-throw attempts from the now injured, Anthony Lamb. Brisbane is and should be underdogs, if they win, it's likely behind a massive defensive performance from Sam McDaniel on the blur that is Parker Jackson-Cartwright. With Illawarra also playing for their season in the first game on Friday, the final round couldn't be set up any better.
Olgun Uluc: Storyline
There are mathematical possibilities to the contrary, but this game is basically a win-or-go-home for both teams. If Brisbane loses, then they'd need Sydney to lose to South East Melbourne later in the round - and that can't possibly happen again, right? - otherwise there's no realistic pathway to the play-in; so, in effect, if Brisbane loses, they're going home. The Breakers losing would put them in an incredibly disadvantageous position, from a percentage standpoint, going into their final game against Adelaide, so it's effectively a must-win for them too. You can guarantee both teams will be playing like it's a do-or-die affair.
JO LUAL-ACIUL IS CORRECT IN DECLARING SHEA ILI DPOY
Peter Hooley: Storyline
It's hard to argue at this point I believe. Yes, there have been some outstanding defensive individual seasons across the league, with guys like Sam McDaniel and Kristian Doolittle deservedly in the conversation, but when you think of the best pure defensive player in the NBL, it's Shea Ili and it has been for a few seasons now. Anyone who has followed to the NBL close enough for the past few years understands Ili's value and contribution to winning and it all comes from the defensive side of the ball. The award is rightly named after the greatest defender we have ever seen in Damian Martin, and the Shea Ili is probably the closest thing we have to what Damo did for so many years at a high level. It's not just media and fans that think Ili is up there, it's his own peers as well. Look no further than him being a finalist last season after only playing half the season (which we know probably shouldn't have happened).
Kane Pitman: Headline
Look, he's almost certainly going to be correct and I would most likely vote for Ili if I was to have that power, but it's worth discussing how deep and talented the individual defenders on the United roster are. Purely by team defensive rating when on the floor, Ili boasts the best on court differential via Spatial Jam (-3.2 points per 100 possessions), while Ariel Hukporti (-2.5) and Luke Travers (-1.0) are known game changing defenders and all should enter the conversation. Ili is without question a defensive player of the year talent, though it's hard for me to go as far as to say it's "criminal" he hasn't claimed one as JLA suggested. This league has had some absolutely elite talent on that end of the floor in recent seasons and I do think context of talent around you should be part of the consideration which could open the door for other candidates.
Olgun Uluc: Storyline
Shea Ili is the best defensive player on the best defensive team in the league; he's effectively the reason why United is able to put opposing teams in a straitjacket on a consistent bases. I agree with Kane that there are a few guys on this United team who've been elite defensive players this season -- and all deserve recognition in one way or another -- but Ili is the head of that snake. He should be the Defensive Player of the Year.
SOUTH EAST MELBOURNE NEED MAJOR CHANGE IN THE OFFSEASON
Peter Hooley: Storyline
The short history for SEM in the league has been a rollercoaster. They have had a bunch of talented rosters and failed to put it all together, for many reasons, every season. It is worth noting that with all the talk about their injuries and losses, this franchise was 20 minutes away from winning an NBL title just a few seasons ago still. Had they not blown that lead against United in front of an empty Qudos Bank Arena in Game 3, they would have gone on to be Champions after beating a Bryce-less Perth in the finals. That being said, some major changes going forward isn't the worst thing for the club looking to the future. Their new facility is one of the best in the country and will no doubt attract some big talent as they build their roster for next season and beyond. Mike Kelly can't control injuries and the way he's helped this undermanned and young team battle the last few weeks, I think proves that he deserves another chance to put it all together going forward.
Kane Pitman: Storyline
Look, Hools can talk about the Phoenix being 20 minutes away from a title a few seasons ago, but the reality is, they have only claimed one playoff win across the Mitch Creek MVP calibre era. That's a waste. Why are they consistently among the most injury-impacted teams in the league? It wouldn't matter if it was Mike Kelly, Simon Mitchell or Erik Spoelstra, no coach could do anything with this team and the availability concerns this season. Are they recruiting players with health red flags? Are they building a roster that is too top heavy? Is the successful program across the road hindering their ability to sign locals? All questions that should be investigated but it should be a fascinating offseason for South East Melbourne. For mine, a healthy and competitive Melbourne rivalry is critical for the league.
Olgun Uluc: Storyline
This is an obvious storyline, so it's a good sign that this Phoenix organisation is conducting a pretty wide-ranging review of all of its performance processes, from on-court, to medical, and beyond. Yes, their injuries were untimely and to the most valuable players on their roster, but other franchises go through similar things and don't capitulate in the same way. These 'changes' we'd suggest don't include the ousting of Mike Kelly or anything like that; instead, it's more a revamping of their processes, which starts with holding people accountable for some of these poor outcomes. The medical staff obviously needs to be reviewed, along with some of the day-to-day operations of this team; the way the franchise operates has to match the seriousness of the off-court infrastructure and fanbase it's developed over the course of time.