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          Olgs' notebook: Who will take the final NBL play-in spot?

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          Kings hold on to beat JackJumpers in arm wrestle (1:35)

          The Sydney Kings beat the Tasmania JackJumpers in a tight contest to claim an important win at home. (1:35)

          • Olgun Uluc
          Jan 20, 2025, 02:42 AM

          Every week, ESPN's Olgun Uluc runs through what's catching his eye across the NBL, and takes you inside the conversations trickling around the Australian basketball ecosystem.

          Fight to make the play-in going down to the wire

          There are a few races going on at once as the end of the NBL regular season draws nearer. There's a fight for top spot and, just below that, who'll finish in the top two and advance straight to the semifinals.

          Of course, there are also the teams looking to sneak into sixth place, which is that final play-in spot. Here, we take a look at the run home for the three teams fighting for the chance to experience play-in action.

          Tasmania JackJumpers (6th; 12-13)

          Tasmania's run home: @ South East Melbourne, vs Illawarra, @ Melbourne, vs Cairns

          The JackJumpers are still in the driver's seat to end up as the 6th seed, but a mixture of some tough road games and injuries to key players means it's likely they won't be able to run away with it.

          Scott Roth's team will be without Will Magnay, Sean Macdonald, and Majok Deng for the remainder of the regular season; that's their starting point guard, starting centre, and reliable scoring option gone for this run home. That means we're getting flashbacks to what this team looked like to start the season, where their organised defence kept them in games, but the lack of potency on the other end of the floor made it difficult to get enough points to actually win them.

          There are three tough games in this run home, starting with a matchup in South East Melbourne against an in-form Phoenix side. You'd always give the JackJumpers a chance in their own building, but it'll be against the No. 1 seeded Illawarra Hawks, who have been the best offensive team in the NBL all season long. Can the JackJumpers keep up with them? Unfortunately, probably not.

          Let's say the JackJumpers drop those first three games, then defeat the last-placed Cairns Taipans at home; that would put them on 13-16 for the season, likely with a not-so-great percentage. That still might be enough to sneak into sixth place, but it wouldn't seem likely, given the 36ers' good health and run home. The key for the JackJumpers is to steal one of those three games, then do what's expected of them against Cairns in their final contest of the season.

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          1:44
          36ers dominate Taipans from start to finish

          The Adelaide 36ers seal the game in the first quarter in a dominant display against the Cairns Taipans.

          Adelaide 36ers (7th; 11-13)

          Adelaide's run home: @ Sydney, vs New Zealand, vs Brisbane, @ South East Melbourne, @ Perth

          The big thing the 36ers have going for them right now, relative to the other teams fighting for sixth place, is health. Both the JackJumpers and Bullets are missing multiple starter-level, rotation players, while the 36ers are fully healthy.

          Their run home is still relatively tough, but a full-health Adelaide has the capacity to steal one or two of the games they'd enter as the underdogs; they've beaten the Kings in Sydney before, and their recent game in Perth went down to the wire.

          The other thing that helped the 36ers significantly was their blowout win over the Taipans on Sunday. Their percentage is now effectively tied with Tasmania (97.06%, to the JackJumpers' 97.08%), so that doesn't have to be a substantial consideration in these upcoming games. It's simple: if you lose those road games (which, realistically, they're expected to), then don't drop them by too much.

          In a world where the 36ers lose three road games against teams above them, then they have to make sure they get the job done at home against a weakened Bullets and volatile Breakers. Those two games could lift the 36ers to 13 wins, then winning one of those road contests would probably be enough to see them jump into sixth place, assuming their percentage is reasonable.

          Brisbane Bullets (8th; 10-14)

          Brisbane's run home: @ Illawarra, @ New Zealand, vs Melbourne, @ Adelaide, @ Cairns

          There's still a chance the Bullets can continue being part of this conversation, but it's tough to see them stringing multiple wins together - while also lifting their percentage - given all their injuries.

          Justin Schueller's team is coming off a 31-point loss to the last-placed Taipans, with their percentage dropping to 95.87%. They get a chance to rebound from that... against the healthy, No. 1-seeded Hawks. It's an unbelievably tall order for them to compete in that game on Monday.

          The Bullets will be hoping that 13 wins is enough to earn that sixth spot, but it's looking more likely that it'll be 14. That means the Bullets - assuming they lose to the Hawks on Monday - will have to sweep their remaining games; that includes one against Melbourne, and what would be considered a double win in Adelaide.

          Unfortunately, the Bullets would probably be considered underdogs going into every game from here on out, so it would take a substantial effort for them to overcome that and get to 14 wins, or even 13 wins with a big jump in percentage.

          Adam Forde goes scorched earth against his starters

          You'd be hard-pressed to find a press conference as honest, and cut-throat, and unambiguous as Adam Forde's was after the Taipans' blowout loss to Adelaide on Sunday.

          The Taipans fell into a 38-12 hole by the end of the first quarter of that matchup and would ultimately walk away with a 99-75 loss at home, and Forde took aim at his starting lineup for their efforts over the course of the game.

          "The starters really let us down, aside from Tanner [Groves]," Forde said.

          He later continued: "This is the first time there was a level of selfishness that they don't even bother trying to disguise. I don't care how this looks. We need to start being adults and mature and professional.

          "They collect a paycheque, and they don't understand what it's like to work a regular job and shovel the s---. Sometimes you get a little bit entitled and sometimes you get a little bit precious when you don't know what the other side looks like."

          Groves was the sole standout among the Taipans' starters, dropping 23 points and nine assists in the loss, so he was seemingly exempt from Forde's criticism.

          The 36ers were led by Dejan Vasiljevic, who finished with 32 points, including 10 made three-pointers.

          When Kyle Adnam was asked in the press conference what he's expecting going into their next game against the Hawks, Forde interjected: "A different starting five."

          It didn't end there.

          "I'd hope so," Forde said when asked if he expects his starters to rebound and perform at the level against the Hawks on Thursday. "...if not, we've got the bench playing 40 minutes."

          Melbourne's Ian Clark problem

          A long-running criticism of Melbourne United going into this season was their expected lack of potency on the offensive end.

          It wasn't an unreasonable assertion. The team lost Jo Lual-Acuil Jr. and Luke Travers over the offseason, so that's a pair of creation hubs gone. They were replaced by Jack White and Rob Loe, who provide more of a complementary skillset within Dean Vickerman's system.

          There was a hope that Chris Goulding's elite shot-making, the generally high-level point guard play of Shea Ili and Matthew Dellavedova, and bench production from Ian Clark, would be enough for United's floor to be high enough to compete when combined with their expectedly elite defence. The four-man is more of a connector within United's schemes, so they'd only get high-output games from White every now and then, and the same can be said for both Loe and Marcus Lee.

          United's defence being inconsistent throughout the season has been a surprise and given them less room for error on the offensive end, and that's why Clark's offensive struggles have been so glaring and are a major concern.

          Over his first 15 games, Clark looked on track to continue as one of the league's most reliable imports, averaging 13.5 points per game, shooting 46% from the field, including 40% from downtown (on 5.0 3PA). There were a heap of home games in there, but that helped lift United to a 11-4 record. United did have a negative net rating with Clark on the floor over that stretch (scoring 109 points per 100 possessions, while conceding 112 points per 100 possessions), but the American was clearly helping things tick over for Vickerman's team.

          Since then, over United's last 10 games, Clark is averaging 9.6 points per game, with shooting splits of 38% FG and 29% 3PT. The 33-year-old also has the lowest net rating among qualified players on the team, with United scoring just 99 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, while allowing 121 points per 100 possessions; that's a -29.

          If United's defence doesn't lift to a level that's well above the league average, then they'll need to unlock Clark in order to have a chance at competing for a title. As of right now, Vickerman is still searching for answers on how to do that.

          "If I knew the absolute answer to that one, I would've done it three or four weeks ago," Vickerman said.

          "We're staying really positive with him, we know what he's capable of. We know what he did at the start of the year, and how well he shot the basketball. We've talked to him a lot about the defensive end, and making sure he's super solid at that end. We feel like when we've got him and CG both on the floor, who can really stretch it out, there should be really good opportunities for him. I think he got some pretty good looks that he's capable of knocking in."

          My favourite plays of the week

          Olbrich is creating a knack for being a high-level creator out of the low post or short roll. He's another example of it.

          The 36ers didn't pick up the win, but they executed this after timeout player to perfection.

          Credit to Rod Anderson for noting how this was a variation of Brad Stevens' 'winner' set.

          Ben Henshall's point guard play has taken a leap this season, and how he works off this on-ball is a great example of it. The range on the pick-up and the touch off the glass were particularly impressive.