UPDATE: The mock draft has been adjusted to reflect the trade of Percy Harvin from Minnesota to Seattle. It shifts a number of picks.
---
Doing a mock draft the day before free agency gets rolling? Call it a recipe to be wrong if you want, but let's instead use this as an opportunity to preview what free agency could mean for the draft. For every selection, I'll discuss how I think free agency additions and subtractions could change what the pick becomes. Bottom line: I expect a lot of things to change soon as teams cross off major personnel needs, but I've also taken into consideration what I expect some teams to do.
Feel free to quibble in the comments, and know that I'll be doing a lot of TV this week, looking at the draft through the lens of free agency. As always, juniors and third-year sophomores are noted with an asterisk.
MORE KIPER CONTENT:
Updated mock draft | Big Board | Top 5 at each position
1
Luke JoeckelKansas City Chiefs (2-14)
COLLEGE: Texas A&M
AGE: 21
HT: 6-6
WT: 306
POS: OT
Pick analysis: Joeckel can play a huge role this season as the immediate starter at right tackle, and could become the left tackle of the future. Joeckel is a complete package, a gifted pass-blocker who utilizes great technique and also brings power in the run game.
Free agency factor: Branden Albert was franchised, but Joeckel could replace him next year on the left side if the Chiefs let him walk, saving them a ton of money at a premium position. I don't think any moves they make in 2013 free agency will play into this pick.
2
Eric FisherJacksonville Jaguars (2-14)
COLLEGE: Central Michigan
AGE: 22
HT: 6-7
WT: 306
POS: OT
Pick analysis: The Jags really need help on the pass rush, but they can get help there in Round 2. In taking Fisher, they improve their situation at left tackle, and there's no certainty that incumbent Eugene Monroe will be around in 2014. The Jags will never know what they have at QB if they can't do a better job in pass protection.
Free agency factor: The Jags could re-think this pick based on need if they can't find any pass-rush help in free agency. They have some cap space to add, but my guess is the team will be really focused on improving on several years of weak drafts.
3
Sharrif Floyd *Oakland Raiders (4-12)
COLLEGE: Florida
AGE: 20
HT: 6-3
WT: 297
POS: DT
Pick analysis: The Raiders are in desperate need of young talent on the defensive line after a year where they were far too often gashed by the run. Floyd is a dynamic young talent, has played inside and on the edge and uses great leverage and power to drive blockers back and blow up plays.
Free agency factor: The future for Carson Palmer is a question mark because of his massive contract, and I can see the Raiders taking a hard look at a QB with this pick, even if the value range doesn't line up well. The Raiders also must find upgrades at linebacker. All in all, free agency shouldn't have much of an affect on this selection.