It's a long season, and anything can happen on any given Sunday. Super Bowl favorites' seasons can quickly crumble, just as expected rebuild teams can suddenly find themselves in the playoff hunt.
To find a ceiling and floor for each NFL team's expected performance this season, we pulled the middle 90% of ESPN Stats & Information's 10,000 Football Power Index (FPI) simulations of the 2019 campaign for each team. That eliminated outliers and gave us realistic best- and worst-case win-total projection scenarios. In other words, roughly 90% of the simulations have the Bills finishing with between four and nine wins.
What will determine on which end of the win-total spectrum each team eventually falls? Our NFL Nation reporters indicate the biggest factor in each team hitting the high or low end of the range.
Jump to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE
NO | NYG | NYJ | OAK | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills
Ceiling: 9-7 | Floor: 4-12
Biggest variable: Offensive cohesiveness. The Bills reworked their run game, receivers and offensive line over the offseason in an effort to give quarterback Josh Allen weapons -- and keep him upright. This defense shouldn't regress from its top-five finish last season, and it should keep the Bills in games. But how quickly their offense comes together will determine how many of those games the Bills will actually win. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques
Miami Dolphins
Ceiling: 8-8 | Floor: 3-13
Biggest variable: Takeaways. The 2018 Dolphins were probably worse than their 7-9 record indicated largely because of their 28 forced turnovers, which tied for fifth in the NFL. There are still several ballhawks on defense, including cornerback Xavien Howard, who could help flip a game even if Miami's offense struggles as we expect. If the Dolphins' turnover number dramatically drops in 2019, their win-total range probably will lean toward the low of three. But if they can somehow duplicate or improve it, they could be a slight surprise trying to move closer to .500. -- Cameron Wolfe
New England Patriots
Ceiling: 13-3 | Floor: 8-8