ENGLEWOOD, Colo. -- Denver Broncos coach Sean Payton isn't quite ready to talk about playoffs or potential. But after the Broncos dispatched the Carolina Panthers on Sunday to win for the fifth time in six weeks and move to 5-3 -- their best mark after eight games since they were 6-2 in 2016, the first season of the Broncos' current eight-year playoff drought -- Payton was more than willing to drop "expectations" into the mix.
"The most important thing is that [the players'] expectations can't be lower than mine," Payton said. "I said to them, 'We're going to play in bigger games than this.' ... We have a big game this week against a much better team."
Indeed, the Broncos have reached the most revealing part of their schedule. In the next three weeks, they play at the 5-3 Baltimore Ravens, followed by a trip to Kansas City to face the 7-0 Chiefs before returning home to face the 5-3 Atlanta Falcons. They will frequent the one-week-at-a-time lane, but how they navigate the next three games will determine what is on the line for them down the stretch and how deeply they can force themselves into the playoff conversation.
The franchise has dabbled on the playoff doorstep a few times in recent years. Even last season, one that eventually ended with a benched quarterback and 1-3 finish in the anchor leg, the Broncos were 7-6 on Dec. 16 before a blowout road loss to the Detroit Lions yanked them off course. Now they have a 48.6% chance to make the postseason this season, per ESPN's Football Power Index.
"I do feel like we are ready for the big games," Broncos outside linebacker Jonathon Cooper said. "... When we go against these really good teams we are about to go against, our start and our finish have to be on point."
But if the Broncos are truly a playoff contender this time around, they will have to check off some things on a postseason to-do list. Here are four areas the Broncos must maintain or improve to truly be in contention for their first postseason berth since 2015.
Maintain the defensive status quo
The Broncos are currently at or near the top of almost every major defensive category. Denver is No. 3 in scoring defense (15.0 points per game), No. 3 in total defense (282.6 yards per game) and No. 2 in sacks (30). It also leads the league in goal-to-go defense (have given up touchdowns on only 40% of drives) and is second in red zone defense (41.2%).
As always, health will play a major role in maintaining those rankings. So far, the Broncos have overcome the loss of linebacker Alex Singleton -- their leading tackler in 2023 -- to a season-ending knee injury. Cornerback Pat Surtain II has missed one game and all but one snap in another after suffering a concussion in Week 6.
Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has "just made all the right calls," as defensive end John Franklin-Myers put it. The Broncos have 12 different players with at least a half-sack and Surtain has three interceptions in eight games, one off his career high.
But even with the gaudy stats, the Broncos' defense has periodically drifted off, with a flurry of missed tackles here, a long drive there. The Panthers' 98-yard drive to close out Sunday's game did not say "championship finish," and it wasn't the first time something like that has occurred.
"I wish we would've finished better," Payton said. "It's not a good offense we played. It's just the truth."
Bo Nix must continue to avoid turnovers
Nix threw three touchdown passes in a game for the first time on Sunday and continues to swim in the deep end of the pool as a rookie quarterback who has started from snap No. 1.
League personnel executives say that Nix's footwork is spotty at times and his accuracy drifts because of it. They added that Nix, like most rookie quarterbacks, will leave a clean pocket at times because he's unsure of what he sees down the field.
Nix's best work has come when he's taken care of the ball and hasn't put the Broncos' defense in bad situations. He's thrown interceptions in three games -- all of which the Broncos lost -- with two picks each in the season-opening losses to the Seahawks and Steelers and one in a Week 6 loss to the Chargers.
Nix, who has thrown for 1,530 yards and eight touchdowns on 165-of-261 passing (63.2%) and ranks 20th in the NFL in QBR (53.4), hasn't committed a turnover in any of the Broncos' wins. He'll need to maintain that mistake-free play if the Broncos want to stay in contention.
Find some pop on offense
Former Broncos Hall of Fame quarterback John Elway has often said one of the most important attributes for a quarterback is the ability to create big moments and be a guy who "will make the throws to win you the game."
But except for three victories against NFC South opponents (the Buccaneers in Week 3, Saints in Week 7 and Panthers on Sunday), the Broncos haven't showed much big-play potential. Payton's mastery of his former long-time division foes has been apparent, as four of the Broncos' six 30-plus passing-yard plays have come against NFC South foes. But there's only one more on the schedule -- Week 11 against the Falcons.
Some of Payton's former players have said that Nix is running a pared-down version of the coach's offense. The Broncos' pass-catchers haven't consistently gotten separation, and Nix -- perhaps at the direction of his coaches -- might be choosing safety over explosiveness. Either way, big plays have been very hard to come by against non-NFC South squads.
The Broncos have only had one 100-yard receiving game, which came on Sunday from wide receiver Courtland Sutton, who had eight receptions for 100 yards. Sutton's effort was one of only four times this season in which a Broncos wide receiver has finished a game with more than 60 receiving yards.
Payton said Monday that the Broncos need to continue to find ways to "stretch the field" as Nix continues to grow. That is a necessity if they hope to stay in the playoff hunt.
Create a finishing kick
It's easy to forget among the playoff misses, failed stretch runs and coaching changes in recent seasons, but this isn't the first time the Broncos have been in this position during their current postseason dry spell.
In addition to the stumble in Detroit, last season's Broncos lost to a poor Patriots team on Christmas Eve to take themselves out of contention. They were 7-6 in 2021 before losing their last four games and were 6-6 in 2019 before another season-ending four-game losing streak.
The 2024 Broncos are currently 2-2 at home and 1-1 in AFC West games. They must finish over .500 in both categories if they're going to make a legitimate run at the playoffs. Not coincidentally, the last season the Broncos accomplished that feat was 2015, which ended with a Super Bowl 50 title.
With a late bye week (Week 14), the Broncos will need good injury fortune to be in range going into the final four games -- in which they'll play the Colts (4-4), Chargers (4-3), Bengals (3-5) and Chiefs (7-0) -- and have a chance to reverse recent history.
"We understand the task at hand," Surtain said. "We feel like every week is a new week of opportunity ... an opportunity to make our mark."