ENGLEWOOD, Colo. -- The Denver Broncos' 10-7 season and playoff berth brought welcome relief after eight consecutive postseason misses. It featured an encouraging debut for rookie quarterback Bo Nix -- who completed 66.3% of his passes for 3,775 yards, 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions -- and an aggressive defense that led the NFL with 63 sacks.
But the way it ended, with a 31-7 wild-card round loss to the Buffalo Bills, further highlighted the gap between the Broncos and the AFC's elite. Broncos coach Sean Payton acknowledged that point following the defeat.
"We need to have a good offseason," Payton said.
As the Broncos move forward into this important offseason, here are the biggest questions they'll face.
How should we view the Broncos' 2024 season? And what was the biggest surprise?
Ending the postseason dry spell makes the season a success. After an 0-2 start, the Broncos won nine of their next 12 games, putting themselves in a position where they needed to win only one of their final three contests to make the playoffs.
They did that, earning the franchise's first postseason berth since the Super Bowl 50 win to close out the 2015 season. Denver finished well above the 6.6 wins that ESPN's Football Power Index projected in the preseason.
However, the Broncos did not fare well against the best teams on their schedule. Only two of their 10 wins came against teams that made the playoffs and one of those -- the playoff-clinching victory in Week 18 -- came against a Chiefs team that was resting its regulars for the playoffs. The only other team the Broncos beat with a winning record was the NFC South champion Buccaneers in Week 3.
Diving in deeper, six of Denver's 10 wins came against the bottom 10 teams in the league. The Broncos also fared poorly against the AFC's elite quarterbacks, going 0-6 (including playoffs) when facing Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs), Lamar Jackson (Ravens), Joe Burrow (Bengals), Justin Herbert (Chargers) and Josh Allen (Bills). That said, being able to consistently win the winnable games was significant improvement.
As for the biggest surprise, Payton never found a consistent rhythm in the run game despite his considerable playcalling chops. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the Broncos were 24th in the NFL in rush yards over expected per play (minus-0.06) and struggled to find a runner they could depend on. Denver had five different players finish a game as the leading rusher, and its top running back, Javonte Williams, had only 513 yards.
That increased the workload on Nix, who finished sixth in the NFL with 567 pass attempts -- more than Herbert, Allen and Jackson. Payton consistently said that an efficient run game would be one of Nix's best allies, but that never happened.
Where do the Broncos stand in the AFC hierarchy after the playoff breakthrough?
While this season was a huge leap forward, the Broncos' main AFC West dilemma -- Mahomes -- still looms. The two-time NFL Most Valuable Player and three-time Super Bowl MVP has led the Chiefs to a 13-1 record against Denver in games he's started and is only 29 years old. So that roadblock isn't disappearing anytime soon. The Broncos were also swept by Herbert and the Chargers, so they have a lot to work to do in their own division to get where they want to go in the AFC.
"One of the things we learned early on is we've got to find a way to play these [playoff] games at home," Payton said following the Buffalo loss. "That's another thing that's at work."
The Broncos have put distance between themselves and the rebuilding Raiders. But until they can start beating the Chargers, much less the Chiefs, the Broncos finds themselves in the No. 3 spot in the AFC West.
"We know the way you get home games [in the playoffs, is to win your division]," wide receiver Courtland Sutton said.
What's next for Nix's development?
Throughout his rookie season, Nix displayed refreshing, unwavering self-awareness and was often far more grounded than those talking about him. He was quick to hold himself accountable for the good, bad and everything in between.
When asked this week about what to improve on, he cited better play in the red zone and third down.
"Those are the most important parts of the game," Nix said. "I feel like the red zone and third down areas are where I can make growth, be a little bit more aware of certain situations."
The Broncos had the third-highest percentage of three-and-out possessions (26.3%), behind the 3-14 Giants and 5-12 Panthers. Despite being seventh in red zone efficiency -- scoring touchdowns on 62.5% of its trips inside the opponents' 20-yard line -- their frequent short, empty possessions made their offense a bit of an all-or-nothing unit.
That isn't just on Nix, as the run game woes contributed to the three-and-outs. Accuracy and footwork were also occasional issues. Nix had a QBR of 56.9 (18th in the NFL) despite having one of the league's best pass-blocking offensive lines. And his in-pocket QBR of 53.9 was 23rd in the NFL. This shouldn't be unexpected for a rookie QB in an offense without a reliable tight end and only one wide receiver (Sutton) with more than 41 receptions. He needs more support.
Who might not be back in 2025?
It remains to be seen how many staff changes Payton will make. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph interviewed for the Jets' head coach opening on Wednesday and is a person of interest for other open head-coaching positions. Joseph has said he loves coaching the Broncos' defensive players and isn't chasing another coaching job but has also said he hopes the right opportunity to be a head coach again is out there.
Quarterbacks coach Davis Webb could also be worth watching, as he is on the radar for other positions around the league. He could want to leave for more playcalling opportunities, but it's interesting to see how Payton would handle another team wanting to interview or poach Webb.
The pending free agents are led by Javonte Williams, defensive tackle D.J. Jones and both starting inside linebackers -- Cody Barton and Justin Strnad. Both backup quarterbacks, Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson, are also scheduled to be unrestricted free agents.
What are some of the biggest offseason priorities?
The Broncos are in search of Payton's "joker," the runner-receiver combination he often had in New Orleans with players like Alvin Kamara, Reggie Bush and Darren Sproles. Skill-position players at running back, receiver and tight end are priorities, not only to help Nix's development but also to take advantage of a solid, veteran offensive line.
Denver still has cap issues, though. According to Roster Management System, the Broncos have $33.4 million in dead money in 2025 (including $32 million coming from quarterback Russell Wilson's release this past March), the third-most behind the Saints and Browns. How they manage it could determine whether their playoff return this season was a brief uptick or the start of an extended run.
They have already set the stage for possible future headaches by adding voidable years (dummy years in contracts that won't likely be used but will still be charged) to several expensive contracts in exchange for salary cap room in 2024, when they had a record $84.1 million in dead money. Denver is currently projected to have $61 million in cap space for 2025, eighth most in the league.
The Broncos were aggressive on the extension front in 2024, signing All-Pro cornerback Pat Surtain II, All-Pro guard Quinn Meinerz, outside linebacker Jonathon Cooper and offensive tackle Garett Bolles to four-year contracts. That could continue in 2025, with edge rusher Nik Bonitto being a priority.
Bonitto broke through in his third season, with his 13.5 sacks helping the Broncos set a franchise record in the category. He was selected to his first Pro Bowl and was named second-team All-Pro. Bonitto is entering the final season of his rookie contract -- like Meinerz and Cooper were heading into 2024 -- and it will take a top-of-the-market deal to prevent him from hitting free agency.
What positions could the Broncos target in the draft?
Payton is all-in on Nix and has already invested in the offensive line, so the quest will be to get help around the young QB, potentially starting in Round 1 at No. 20 overall. Skill positions will be a priority in the draft as well as free agency, with tight end being a particular point of emphasis. The Broncos' leading tight end, Adam Trautman, had only 13 receptions for 188 yards and two touchdowns.
Inside linebacker is a position to watch on defense -- even with the expected return of Alex Singleton, who was sidelined by a torn ACL suffered in Week 3 -- along with safety. Opposing offenses pounded away at the Broncos' nickel defense with the run game, highlighted by the Bills' 210 rushing yards and 41:43 time of possession in the wild-card loss.