The decision Australian rugby fans expected, but still feared, was finally revealed on Thursday afternoon with confirmation Joe Schmidt will step down as Wallabies coach in 2025.
There was however one small nugget of good news: that Schmidt will coach on for a further six Tests through the Rugby Championship, which culminates in back-to-back Bledisloe clashes against the All Blacks.
Wrestling the enormous trophy away from his homeland for the first time in 22 years? Wouldn't that be a way to bow out.
And so Rugby Australia has already begun the process of finding Schmidt's replacement, with chief executive Phil Waugh having last year declared he was ready with a "contingency plan" that wouldn't look too far afield.
Here are the top contenders to replace Schmidt later this year, a tenure that will begin with a grudge match, of sorts, against Eddie Jones' Japan.
LES KISS
The former State of Origin winger has carved out an impressive coaching career in rugby after starting with the Waratahs, before travelling abroad to Ireland and the U.K.; he then returned home to take charge of the Reds at the end of 2023. Immediately the Reds looked a different team in 2024. They played an up-tempo, attacking brand of rugby that saw them end a long drought in Christchurch, defeat tournament runners-up the Chiefs in Brisbane, and fall in desperate golden-point circumstances to the Blues and Hurricanes. Those twin defeats cost them a spot in the top four, which resulted in a tough quarterfinal trip to Hamilton, where the Chiefs proved far too strong.
The big advantage Kiss has when it comes to the Wallabies' job is that he worked alongside Schmidt previously with Ireland and as part of the broader Irish system, so there would be some level of continuity for the Australian playing group, despite the coaches' slightly different approaches. Add to that the fact that Reds players contribute several senior Wallabies, including captain Harry Wilson, to the starting side, and have rising stars Tim Ryan and Tom Lynagh also coming through.
Kiss last month told ESPN he did not want to "disrespect" Schmidt by commenting on the Wallabies while the Kiwi was still to make his decision, and the Queensland Rugby Union is desperate for him to see out his three-year contract to 2026. But you get the feeling that if the Queenslander wants the role the QRU will not stand in his way, save for a few grumbles with the RA brass at Moore Park.
STEPHEN LARKHAM
The man known as "Bernie" is in his second stint as Brumbies coach, after a three-year stay at Irish club Munster. Larkham applied for the role following Eddie Jones' unceremonious exit after the woeful World Cup failure, but he missed out to Schmidt on account of the Kiwi's vast experience with Ireland and then the All Blacks.
Larkham, however, has previous experience with the Wallabies, having served as the team's attack coach between 2015 and 2018, before he was moved aside by Michael Cheika in what was largely a case of shuffling the deckchairs on the Titanic. It was then that Larkham sought the overseas experience many believe a Test coach requires, before he returned to Canberra to replace Dan McKellar.
Just like Kiss, Larkham would be well surrounded by senior Brumbies at the Wallabies, with Allan Alaalatoa, Nick Frost, Rob Valetini, Len Ikitau and Tom Wright all entrenched in the Test environment. But the 1999 Rugby World Cup winner is also somewhat of an introvert, whose coaching style may not resonate with players who have not yet had the chance to work under him.
DAN MCKELLAR
In another world, one where RA bosses decided to stick with Dave Rennie and not parachute Eddie Jones in for a nine-month sprint to the World Cup, it may be that McKellar is already coach of the Wallabies, having replaced the Kiwi after the global showpiece in 2023. But the time machine remains an elusive dream, and so McKellar's coaching journey has taken several turns since.
While Jones offered McKellar a position on his staff, the Queenslander declined and instead headed for Leicester, where he experienced a difficult season in the Premiership. The Tigers decided to head in a different direction having finished a lowly eighth while McKellar was in charge, and in a situation not dissimilar to how Kiss landed at the Reds, there just happened to be a vacancy at the Waratahs, where the coach has just wrapped up a preseason and will coach his first Super Rugby game in sky blue a week today against the Highlanders.
McKellar has a reputation as being a tough but fair coach, someone who generates enormous respect among his playing group with his actions and words. It was one of the reasons Rob Leota, captain of the now defunct Rebels, headed to Sydney, he told ESPN on Thursday, with star prop Taniela Tupou having expressed similar sentiments. McKellar remains a popular figure among many of his former Brumbies players, too.
While McKellar said he was committed to the Waratahs having signed a three-year deal, the chance to take the role he was being groomed for under Rennie may prove too strong to resist. But having seen things go awry at Leicester - where he was replaced by Cheika -- perhaps the best place for McKellar is to rebuild the Waratahs first, and kick his Wallabies ambitions a few years down the road yet.
MICHAEL CHEIKA
The fact that Cheika's name has been mentioned several times here reflects the shadow he has cast on Australian rugby ever since he stepped down as Wallabies coach, only minutes before he was due to be sacked, following the quarterfinal loss to England at the World Cup. Cheika has since made no secret of his desire to get a second crack at the Wallabies and has set about building the resume to at least put his name back in the picture.
After joining Argentina as a consultant, where he helped the Pumas to a first ever win over the All Blacks, Cheika then stepped into the head coaching role, and added a maiden Test win on New Zealand soil over the three-time world champions. He also oversaw a win over England at Twickenham, before the Pumas then reached the semifinals of the 2023 World Cup in France, where they eventually finished fourth after a narrow loss to England. Cheika did not cover himself in glory with a post-match interview after that defeat however, and he remains a volatile character who often takes aim at officials. Some see that as a problem, while others admire his passion and view that as positive, particularly in Australia, where the game often needs a leg-up in the media.
Is the time right for a Cheika return? Would RA even consider it given how Jones' second coming landed? Those are questions that will be debated over the coming weeks. But given Waugh's stated desire to bring through a coach from Super Rugby, it may be that Cheika's wait for a second crack at the Wallabies goes on. The timing does fit however, with the Australian set to return home from Leicester at the end of the current Premiership season.
OTHER OPTIONS?
While the men listed above are undoubtedly the frontrunners, there are many coaches around the globe who looked poised to step up to, or return to the Test arena.
Irishman Ronan O'Gara has built quite the reputation at Leinster, but is fancied for either the Ireland or England post at some point, while Stuart Lancaster would love another crack at international level after his tenure at Twickenham ended in World Cup disaster.
Kiwis Steve Hansen and Ian Foster have teamed up at Toyota Verblitz in Japan and while both men haven't called time on their international ambitions, it's hard to see either man throwing their hat in the ring for the Wallabies at this point in time.
Super Rugby Pacific-winning Blues coach Vern Cotter has experience with both Scotland and Fiji, but he could be setting himself up for a crack at the All Blacks in the post-Scott Robertson era, whenever that might be.