Last week featured yet another shakeup in the MVP market as favorite Patrick Mahomes was held without a touchdown in an upset loss against the Denver Broncos. That caused Tua Tagovailoa to replace him as the favorite -- the seventh straight week there has been movement at the top of that market. Most of the other markets remained relatively stagnant. However, Week 9 features several high-leverage matchups that could affect several markets, including Cowboys-Eagles, Bills-Bengals, and perhaps the highest leverage MVP game of the season when Mahomes and Tagovailoa meet in Germany.
MVP
Favorite: Tua Tagovailoa (+350)
Last week's favorite: Patrick Mahomes (+240)
Another week, another favorite in the MVP market. One week after Patrick Mahomes became the biggest favorite in this market, Mahomes lost to the Broncos and fell out of the favorite role. Now Tua Tagovailoa is back on top of the market. Mahomes and Tagovailoa will square off in Germany this week, in a game with a total in the low 50s. The winner will likely be the MVP favorite this time next week.
Jalen Hurts is right behind them, but Hurts enters his most difficult schedule stretch of the season. The Eagles' next six games are against the Cowboys, Chiefs, Bills, 49ers, Cowboys again and Seahawks. Lamar Jackson is the only other player below 10-1.
Offensive Player of the Year
Favorite: Christian McCaffrey (+135)
Last week's favorite: Tyreek Hill (+125)
Christian McCaffrey and Tyreek Hill remain the top two favorites as both look for record-setting seasons. McCaffrey has scored a touchdown in 17 straight games including the playoffs, tied for the longest streak in NFL history. Meanwhile, Tyreek Hill has become the first player in the first player in the Super Bowl era with 1,000 yards in his first eight games. Hill remains on pace to become the first player in NFL history with 2,000 receiving yards.
However, Eagles receiver A.J. Brown has closed the gap with his sixth straight 125-yard receiving game, the longest stretch in NFL history. He is just 75 yards behind Hill, though Hill also holds a three-touchdown lead. McCaffrey will likely remain near the top of the market as long as his touchdown streak continues, but if it ever ends, this race could end up coming down to the two receivers. It won't end this week as McCaffrey is on bye.
Defensive Player of the Year
Favorites: Micah Parsons and Myles Garrett (+200)
Last week's favorite: Parsons (+180)
Out of all the awards markets, this is the one that has moved the least throughout the season. It's essentially been a three-man race between Parsons, Garrett and T.J. Watt all season. Garrett and Watt both have 8.5 sacks, behind only Danielle Hunter and Josh Allen.
Parsons has six sacks and rates the best in advanced pass rushing metrics, but his odds have slowly started to lengthen as he still lags behind Garrett and Watt in sacks and forced fumbles. Parsons has a big opportunity this week against the Eagles in one of the biggest games of the season, but if the Cowboys lose and Parsons doesn't improve his numbers, his odds could fall behind Watt and Garrett.
Coach of the Year
Favorite: Dan Campbell (+225)
Last week's favorite: Campbell (+200)
Dan Campbell entered the season as the favorite and has been the favorite for the last five weeks. As the Lions keep winning, his chances keep growing. Campbell is on bye this week, so his odds are dependent on his fellow Coach of the Year competitors, all of whom have big opportunities this week. Mike McDaniel (+300) could become the favorite in this market with a win over the Chiefs on Sunday, but a loss would drop Miami to 6-3.
Given that the Dolphins made the playoffs and won nine games last season, a third loss should hurt his chances significantly. Robert Saleh has been flying up the board and is now +600. If Saleh wins as a home underdog against the Chargers, the Jets would be 5-3 with Zach Wilson. If Saleh takes the Jets to the playoffs, he becomes a very strong candidate.
DeMeco Ryans (10-1) took a big hit last week with a loss to the Panthers. A win and his candidacy is back on track, but a loss and he is in deep trouble.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Favorite: C.J. Stroud (-160)
Last week's favorite: Stroud (-200)
Despite losing to fellow top pick Bryce Young last week, Stroud remains the odds-on favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. Young's odds were bet last week prior to the game from 75-1 to 40-1, but even with the win over his rookie rival, Young's odds did not budge after the win, remaining at 40-1. Stroud's overall numbers remain a lot better than Young, but Young is now only two touchdowns behind.
One wrinkle to this market last week was that the top two receiver candidates each saw their quarterbacks get injured, with Matthew Stafford (Puka Nacua) and Kirk Cousins (Jordan Addison) both getting hurt. Nacua is still on pace to break the NFL rookie receiving record, but he has now been held under 50 yards in two of his last three games. The big move last week happened from Jahmyr Gibbs, who moved from 50-1 to 12-1 after he had 189 yards. Gibbs is on bye this week.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Favorite: Jalen Carter (-120)
Last week's favorite: Carter (-150)
Carter remains the favorite in this market, though the gap between he and corner Devon Witherspoon keeps shrinking. Witherspoon is now +150, followed by Lions DB Brian Branch (10-1) and Texans DE Will Anderson (15-1). Nobody else is 50-1 or shorter.
With Carter facing the Cowboys, a big Carter performance could shorten his odds next week. Nobody in this market has a big statistical profile, so there is room for a longshot to potentially join the top four in this race.