Our AFL experts tackle some of the burning questions ahead of the first week of finals.
How far can the Bombers go this finals series?
Rohan Connolly: Given most of us thought they might finish bottom four, even getting this far is a major achievement. I don't think they're quite good enough yet to go past week two, but they have to be a reasonable chance of winning that elusive final, given they beat the Dogs a fortnight ago. Then what? I suspect they'd have a better chance of beating Melbourne than Brisbane in week two, given the Lions' scoring potential, sharp attacks have presented a problem for them this season.
Jake Michaels: I can't believe I'm saying this, but I think they will beat the Dogs this week! As in-form as the Bombers are, it probably says more about the Bulldogs' slide in the last month of football. Right now, with players like Jake Stringer, Zach Merrett, Darcy Parish and Peter Wright, they feel like the have enough genuine match-winners to get over the Dogs and break that finals win drought.
Matt Walsh: They're in hot form, so would it surprise me to see them beat the Bulldogs this week? Not at all, given the Dogs' struggles in recent weeks. After that, it's the loser of the Demons and Lions, which, on paper, seems like the easier semi over the loser of Port and Geelong. Could they make a prelim?! Possibly! But having said that, they are the eighth seed for a reason. I have them losing a tight one this week. Sorry, Bombers fans!
Jarryd Barca: It may have taken until the last day of the home-and-away season to cement their spot, but getting into week two is not beyond them here, and I'm sensing an upset in a similar vein to the Collingwood-West Coast boilover of 2020. They have a free hit here, the Bombers, and should be able to play with a dangerous freedom that sees them become the 11th lower-ranked elimination final winner of the last decade.
Which team are you most confident will win this week?
RC: It's hard to remember four week one finals so evenly-matched. Ordinarily, you'd think fifth beats eighth is the safest bet, but the Dogs have lost three on end, are unsettled, and lost to the Dons recently. I'm going with Sydney against GWS, even though they're 1-1 over the season. Really, the Swans shouldn't have let that first encounter slip, and their form is solid indeed, with seven wins from their past eight. The Giants did struggle to put Carlton away, and I reckon Sydney matches up pretty well against them.
JM: I'm probably going with the Swans, too, but I'm far from confident. I just think they've been a better, more consistent side throughout the year and I have faith they will come to play on Saturday afternoon. I'm never really sure what I'm getting with the Giants...
MW: I think it's a testament to the way the season ended up playing out that there's no overwhelming favourite in any match. Even the Giants have hit form to look good, while the Bombers beat the Dogs just a couple of weeks ago! Having said that, I think given the Bulldogs were top of the ladder a month ago, they're some class above the Bombers, despite their form lines being rather the opposite of their finals seeding.
JB: Each game is a genuine 50-50 in my eyes, and elimination finals are too unpredictable, so slightly, I'll say Port Adelaide. They're in form, have won five games decided by less than 10 points, and are second behind only Melbourne in contested possessions this season. If they win the midfield battle and put an undermanned Cats defence under enough pressure, I'm confident in saying they'll be hosting a home preliminary final.
Has Melbourne done enough to convince you they will win the flag?
RC: "Will" might be a bit strong given how even this particular flag race looks, but the Demons certainly deserve to at least start favourites, I reckon. Take out a six-game block when they stuttered a little and they've won 15 from 16, and importantly, in the last month, got back to the sort of form they had in the nine-game streak to start the season, Ben Brown I think having made an important difference up forward. The midfield is rock-solid, the defence equally so, and they have the best ruckman in the caper in Max Gawn. Clearly their best chance since 1964.
JM: Elite defence? Check. Elite midfield? Check? Elite ruckman? Check. Elite forward line? Hmmm. It remains my only question in regards to the Demons' premiership credentials, but I do believe they can overcome a lack of forward line power, given how strong they are in other areas. I wouldn't say this year's flag is their to lose, but they they are the righfully deserved favourites heading into finals.
MW: This is a great question, because I said 'yes' much earlier in the season, pending their ability to find a forward line solution that works and has settled. Would we call seven weeks or so of Brown anchoring that forward line a solution? Can you rely on Bayley Fritsch to kick two or three goals in three finals? How does Luke Jackson settle in his first final? I think the Dees -- given they're the least experienced in finals of the top four sides -- have the most questions hanging over them, despite their minor premiership.
JB: Not at all, despite the fact I think they do deserve favouritism. While their comeback on the weekend was impressive, they still found themselves 44 points down, and I highly doubt the Cats will make the mistake of leaving Joel Selwood and Patrick Dangerfield on the pine for extended periods of a last quarter in a cut-throat final. The Dees do a lot right; they win it at the coalface, deny teams corridor access with a strong defensive system and have a notably high inside 50 efficiency, but I can't trust them until they package that all together in a September contest.
If the Swans lose to GWS, it is a failed season?
RC: Absolutely not! Wasn't I just about the only person in the country to tip them to make the final eight? Whatever happens on Saturday, it's been a remarkable effort, given their 16th place last year and the amount of inexperience John Longmire has had at his disposal. Sydney has played no fewer than 11 players this season who when 2021 started had just 51 games to their names collectively, and the likes of Justin McInerney, Sam Wicks, Errol Gulden, Chad Warner and Hayden McLean have all made important contributions. This group is going to be hanging around the top of the ladder for some time, I think.
JM: It's probably not a failed season, but certainly a wasted one. As much as we can talk about how nobody expected the Swans to be playing finals, did anyone really think the Giants would be there, particularly after losing Jeremy Cameron!? The plethora of talented youth at the Swans has me confident of many strong years ahead but why settle on a week one finals exit to their cross-town rival this year? They should be winning this game and will be bitterly disappointed if they don't.
MW: The initial sting will hurt, but not many pundits had the Swans even making the eight, let alone finishing just outside the top four! It was a wonderful year for Sydney, who were able to pump games into inexperienced kids, and get a wonderful return out of Lance Franklin late in his career. You get the feeling this year was just a stepping stone to bigger and better things, and it's not like they were going to win the flag this year anyway.
JB: Whatever happens, this season has been a remarkable rise for Sydney, who probably adapted to the new rules better than almost every other team. They've had a great return from bona fide stars such as Franklin, Isaac Heeney, Luke Parker and Jake Lloyd, coupled with an important injection of youth and unforeseeable improvements from those previously on the fringe. It won't be a failed season if they lose, but it would be the loss that stings a team the most.