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          The Six Points: Ken Hinkley doesn't deserve the 'anti-Alastair Clarkson' treatment; rucks are wildly overrated

          • Jake Michaels, Senior WriterMay 2, 2023, 10:36 PM
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              Jake Michaels is a Melbourne-based sports writer. He has been with ESPN since 2013, covering everything from AFL to Formula One, basketball to boxing, and tennis, both in Australia and around the world.
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          Each week, ESPN.com.au's Jake Michaels looks at six talking points from the AFL world.

          This week's Six Points features the most overrated position in the sport (spoiler alert, it's ruckman), why Ken Hinkley is the anti-Alastair Clarkson, and the Geelong Football Club, which is well and truly back in premiership calculations.

          1. The AFL Grand Final curse is so real it's becoming spooky

          My good friend, Christian Joly, who works as a statistician at Champion Data, reminds me of this weird and wonderful stat every pre-season where it's relevant.

          Since 1995, teams that lose a Grand Final by 40+ points are 6-6 at making finals the following season. NONE have won a final the following year.

          This year was no different. As we prepared to make our 2023 season predictions on the ESPN Footy Podcast, he again reminded of this quirk. "Surely not," I scoffed at the possibility of Sydney dropping off the cliff. Something I probably said of the 2022 Bulldogs and 2020 Giants...

          We're seven rounds into the year and the Swans are 3-4, only boasting wins over the Suns, Hawks and Tigers. They've been humiliated by the Cats, crushed by the Demons and this week face the daunting task of travelling to the MCG for a date with the ladder-leading Magpies. By Sunday afternoon, John Longmire's side could easily be two games outside the top eight and facing an uphill battle to avoid adding to this remarkable statistic.

          Last year, Sydney ranked sixth for contested possession differential and fourth for contested possession differential post-clearance, one of the most important metrics in the modern game. This year they've plummeted to 13th and 14th, respectively, meaning they are far easier to win and move the ball against.

          So why do we see this trend with teams belted in the Grand Final?

          It's impossible to answer that question, but I don't subscribe to the fact this 'Grand Final curse' is just a statistical anomaly. Perhaps it's mental. To reach the final game of the season, come so close and go home empty handed (and well beaten) must be debilitating. That's what I'm going with. If anyone else has a theory, I'm all ears.

          2. Collingwood is proving my theory about rucks; they are wildly overrated

          For years I've been mocked, ridiculed and forced to engage in endless debates about my unpopular opinion on AFL rucks. I'd love to share some of the, erm, feedback, I've received, but the big wigs at ESPN don't look too fondly at published expletives.

          Anyway, many of those arguments used to centre around Brodie Grundy, when he was still a Magpie. I was constantly told he wasn't just Collingwood's best player, but the club's most important. I said it then, and I'll say it again: "give me a spell." The Pies are 22-6 without Grundy since the start of 2021.

          Let me make it clear this isn't a criticism of Grundy, rather the reality of the position which has become totally overrated by fans and the wider media. Hitouts might be the most misleading and pointless stat Champion Data tracks. It simply does not correlate to winning games of football.

          In fact, teams that win the hitout count win the game just 39% of the time. It doesn't take a mathematician to work out they lose 61% of games...

          Since Darcy Cameron suffered a knee injury in Round 3, and the Pies have been rolling with the ruck combination of Billy Frampton and Ash Johnson, it's little surprise they're ranked dead-last in hitout differential. But in that time, Craig McRae's side ranks fourth for scores from clearance and has conceded the second fewest points from stoppages. Both metrics have improved despite the ruck 'crisis' and the Magpies have since moved into premiership favouritism. With all due respect to Cameron, suggesting they've lost something from the midfield is laughable.

          The elite rucks of the game obviously provide value to their clubs, that's inarguable, but we need to stop overrating the impact the average tap ruckman has in the modern game of football, where speed, mobility, skill and endurance is what's critical for success - traits that almost never go hand-in-hand with players of that position.

          You want to know why I'm correct? Every single time a ruckman attempts anything even remotely skillful, and botches it, the condescending commentary which follows always tries to remind viewers of their limitations as a footballer. It's contradictory to what many believe, but it does prove my points.

          3. Ken Hinkley is the most unfairly treated coach in the AFL

          It's like clockwork. When Port Adelaide's in a slump, the knives immediately come out for Ken Hinkley.

          "It just looks untenable," club great Warren Tredrea said of Hinkley after the Power's 31-point loss to the Crows in Round 3. He wasn't the only one to criticise the Port boss, either.

          It's fair to say that comment has aged as well as a Farmers Union Iced Coffee, with Port rattling off four straight wins to climb to fifth on the ladder, knocking on the door of the top four. And with games to come against the Bombers at home and the Kangaroos in Tasmania, there's a real opportunity to establish a gap between themselves and the chasing pack.

          Of course, few are retracting their words, and praise for Hinkley is kept to a minimum. If he's playing such a key role in the club's losses, then he must be playing the same role in the wins, right? For some bizarre reason it doesn't work that way with Hinkley, who has become the anti-Alastair Clarkson. He gets zero credit when the Power is winning yet is absolutely savaged when they lose. Just like I've argued with 'Clarko' for years, you simply can't have it both ways.

          To highlight just how unfair the treatment of Hinkley has been over the journey, there are only three current coaches with a better winning percentage than him.

          It's clear the playing group adores him and you truly get the sense they enjoy playing under his tutelage. I love the emotion he shows in the dugout, the way he embraces his players and the fact he rides the emotional rollercoaster of a football season in such a unique way.

          Sure, Hinkley hasn't been able to take the Power to a Grand Final in his 11-year tenure, but he's only ever had two losing seasons and you could certainly argue he's extracted the most out of the crop of talent at his disposal. Give the man some respect.

          4. Geelong is well and truly back in business

          You might recall me pleading with the football world to pump the breaks on the 'Cats are back' narrative when they beat the lowly Hawks in Round 4 to get on the board in season 2023. Well I think it's safe to say we've now seen enough to suggest they are back and firmly amongst the best (and scariest) teams in the competition.

          The notion of 'flicking a switch' or 'turning it on' is a little overused in football but there's really no other way to describe Geelong over the last month.

          It's as if Chris Scott looked at the ladder after three rounds, saw his side anchored to the bottom and said, 'right, we need to get cracking'.

          The turnaround is unprecedented. It's not just the fact they've turned 0-3 into 4-3, but some of the numbers behind the win streak are mind-boggling, so much so that you have to wonder what was going at the beginning of the year.

          • 17th for disposal efficiency in the first three weeks. 1st over the last four weeks.

          • 17th for contested possessions in the first three weeks. 2nd over the last four weeks.

          • 11th for inside 50 differential in the first three weeks. 1st over the last four weeks.

          • 15th for uncontested possessions in the first three weeks. 4th over the last four weeks.

          The Cats have improved drastically in just about every aspect of the game and look very close to their devastating best. The only area which may be cause for concern is the fact they're conceding 80 points per game, 14 more than last year. But on the flip side, they're the highest scoring team in the competition at 109 per game (10 more than 2022), so should it really be a concern?

          5. And the player of April is ... Noah Anderson!

          Some will argue Nick Daicos, others will say it's Jeremy Cameron or Clayton Oliver. But over the last month, the player I've awarded the most Brownlow Medal votes to is none other than rising Sun Noah Anderson.

          Anderson would be leading Gold Coast's best and fairest by a wide margin after seven rounds and (mark my words) it won't be long before some of my fellow media pundits begin asking whether or not he's jumped the injured Touk Miller as the Suns' No. 1 player.

          I won't go that far just yet -- after all, Miller was my pre-season tip for the Brownlow -- but Anderson's form over the last four weeks has been special and his output trajectory is off the charts.

          Through April, Anderson averaged 31 disposals, 13 contested possessions, eight clearances and eight score involvements. He was one of just three midfielders -- along with Stephen Coniglio and Christian Petracca -- to rank 'elite' for metres gained, contested possessions and uncontested possessions in the month, highlighting his ability to win the ball in both phases of the game, as well as take territory.

          I love how his instincts always tell him to take on the game and move the ball forward. He is one of the best effective metres gained players in the league and ranks sixth for total kicks so far in 2023.

          This guy is just getting better and better. I'm buying as much Anderson stock as the market will allow.

          6. If the Lions want to be taken seriously in 2023, travel down to Melbourne and beat the Blues

          Is Brisbane a fully fledged, 100% legitimate premiership contender in season 2023?

          While I can't provide a definitive 'yes' to that question just yet, if Chris Fagan's side dispatches the Blues at Marvel Stadium on Friday night, all while missing several key personnel, then I might just be convinced they are in with a shot.

          The Blues are hardly world beaters but confidence will be high after last week recording the club's first three-figure win in 12 years. Many Carlton fans will argue their side plays its best football at Docklands, as opposed to the traditional home deck of the MCG.

          For the Lions it's a familiar old tale in 2023. Dominate at home and be a below par team on the road.

          Brisbane's really only played three true away games this season (a fourth game away from the Gabba was against North Melbourne at a neutral ground during Gather Round). They lost to the Power by 54 points at Adelaide Oval in Round 1, lost to the Bulldogs by 14 points at Marvel Stadium in Round 3 but edged the Giants in Canberra two weeks back.

          Another road loss would just raise further questions about the legitimacy of this team away from home and whether it can cause damage come September. It's something the Lions cannot afford.