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          The Six Points: Toothless Tigers destined for bottom four; Heeney in rare company

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          Who's overperforming? Looking at Champion Data's 100X stat (3:48)

          The ESPN Footy Pod team talks about 100X - the stat which ranks every player per 100 minutes played, against the competition average, in that position. Who has had a good start to the year? (3:48)

          • Jake Michaels, Senior WriterMar 26, 2024, 08:50 PM
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              Jake Michaels is a Melbourne-based sports writer. He has been with ESPN since 2013, covering everything from AFL to Formula One, basketball to boxing, and tennis, both in Australia and around the world.
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          Each week of the 2024 AFL season, ESPN.com.au's Jake Michaels looks at six talking points.

          This week's Six Points feature bottom four-bound Richmond, why Collingwood's season is on the line this Thursday night, Isaac Heeney's historic start to the year, and the AFL's latest failure.

          1. I tried to tell you Richmond would be a bottom four team in 2024

          I was ridiculed for saying Richmond would be a bottom four team in 2024 when we released our way-too-early predictions just hours after last year's Grand Final. But, as is often the case, I wasn't going to be deterred.

          Instead, weeks out from the season getting underway, I doubled down on that sentiment on the ESPN Footy Podcast.

          While I'm not gloating just yet -- after all, we're just 12.5% of the way through the season -- that take appears to be ageing like a fine wine. The Tigers have spluttered to an 0-3 start, the club's worst record through three games since 2010.

          You can go back further, too. Richmond's record since Round 20 last season is 1-7, with that sole win coming against the lowly Kangaroos at the MCG.

          The Tigers have gone backwards quickly. They have no identity under Adem Yze, and, so far in 2024, aren't doing anything even remotely well.

          Richmond now has the worst pressure differential in the league, which speaks to the lack of effort being put in across the board. Alarmingly, they also rank bottom three for winning the ball and kicking efficiency differential. If you can't win the ball and then don't use it well, you're not winning games of football. Simple.

          There's no chance they beat the red-hot Swans on Sunday afternoon, which means they will soon be 0-4. Then it's the rejuvenated Saints at Gather Round. An 0-5 start is looming.

          2. Put a line through Collingwood if they lose to Brisbane

          My Collingwood takes have been a little off over the last 18 months. When I was down on them, they made a historic run to a premiership. And just when I started to believe, they've slumped to an 0-3 flag defence.

          I'm not sure who wins on Thursday night at the Gabba (though I am leaning towards the Lions), but one thing is clear, if the loser is Collingwood, it's season over. This isn't just opinion or gut feel, rather over 100 years of evidence which suggests it's near impossible to make finals after such a woeful start to the year, let alone go on and win the premiership.

          In league history, there have been 162 teams start a season 0-4. Just five of them were able to rebound and play finals, meaning 96.9% of those teams missed out.

          But even that's a little misleading. One of those instances was the 1916 Tigers, which shouldn't really count given the competition consisted of just four teams back then! There was South Melbourne in 1923 (nine team competition), Collingwood in 1959 (12 teams) and North Melbourne in 1975 (12 teams).

          The only side to achieve the feat in modern history is Sydney in 2017. That team started 0-6 and came back to play in September, winning an elimination final before falling the following week.

          History says it's a long road back and that doesn't bode well for the Magpies in 2024.

          It's advantage, Brisbane, too. Chris Fagan's side is back at home where it's won 32 of its last 36 games and will be fresh from a week off. No matter how this one plays out, you just know the focus in the aftermath will be firmly on the loser.

          3. The umpires were right to not call that Jack Higgins ball out

          After watching the replay dozens of times, and starring at freeze frames for what feels like an eternity, I'm still unsure whether the ball was in or out -- remember, for the ball to be out, the whole of the ball has to cross the whole of the line -- before Jack Higgins slotted one of the goals of this young season.

          But the simple fact I still don't know tells me the boundary umpire's no-call, if you will, and allowing the play to develop, was correct.

          In situations like this, when it's a pretty clear 50-50, we must err on the side of the ball being in play 100% of the time. No exceptions. Give the benefit of the doubt to the player in possession.

          And if you think there's outrage now, I can guarantee it would be 10 times greater if that ball goes through for a goal only for the umpire to blow their whistle and bring it back for a boundary throw-in.

          Sorry, Pies fans. That's not the reason you lost the game.

          4. Isaac Heeney is having an extraordinary start to the year

          Isaac Heeney could very easily have polled a maximum nine Brownlow Medal votes after three weeks.

          The dynamic Swan has proven to be a star inside midfielder in the early part of 2024, filling the void -- and some -- left behind by the injured Luke Parker, Callum Mills, and Taylor Adams.

          READ: ESPN's 2024 Brownlow Medal predictor

          Through three games, Heeney is averaging -- yes, averaging -- 29 disposals, 15 contested possessions, 12 score involvements, eight clearances, six inside 50s, and over a goal per game. Truly elite numbers that stack up with some of the best starts to the season we've ever seen, and that's no exaggeration.

          Heeney is averaging 25.8 Rating Points through the first three rounds, which places him fifth for the greatest three-week start to a season since Champion Data introduced the metric in 2010.

          It's extraordinary company Heeney has joined.

          Dustin Martin won the Brownlow Medal with a record 36 votes in 2017, ahead of Patrick Dangerfield on 33 votes. Gary Ablett was the AFL MVP in 2012 and Lance Franklin was named as the All-Australian captain in 2018. Big things are on the horizon for Heeney.

          5. More proof the MRO system needs a complete overhaul

          If I've said it once, I've said it 1,000 times. The simple fact we can have a nasty incident like Peter Wright electing to bump, getting it wrong and leaving Harry Cunningham concussed on the SCG turf and there to be such polarising opinions on the suitable punishment is proof the current MRO and grading system needs a complete overhaul.

          I've heard some pundits in football circles call for a six-week suspension, others a two or three-week ban, and then there's a group who think Wright should be exonerated completely. It's utter madness.

          We went through this same charade late last year after the Brayden Maynard-Angus Brayshaw collision. Nobody can seem to agree on what penalties must be handed down for certain actions and incidents due to the way the rules are written, and that falls on the AFL for its embarrassing inconsistencies and failure to make any sort of statement by setting an early precedent.

          When is it going to end?

          6. The most common and least common match-ups in football

          My eagle-eyed colleague, Rohan Connolly, noticed this little fixturing quirk earlier in the week.

          So, of course, we asked Champion Data to provide some answers. Thankfully, they did!

          The most common match-up we've had since the AFL became an 18-team competition is Sydney-GWS. These two clubs have already faced each other 26 times, including three finals. As of Round 3, 2024, the Giants have played 277 games in the AFL, that means 10.65% of them have been against the Swans!

          There's a three-way tie for the least common match-up. Carlton-North Melbourne, Essendon-Melbourne, and Sydney-Brisbane have been played just 12 times since the beginning of 2012. That's once per season for 12 straight years and no finals.