Who are the favourites for the AFL premiership? Who are the legitimate contenders? And who should already be booking September holidays? Jake Michaels has ranked every club after the fourth month of the season in his July edition of tiers.
Note: ESPN's AFL tiers will be a monthly column throughout the 2024 season.
Joint premiership favourites (by default)
1. SYDNEY
2. CARLTON
The Swans appeared almost untouchable the last time these tiers were published. But back-to-back losses over the last fortnight -- albeit by one and two points, respectively -- has left the door ajar for their challengers. Whether fair or not, as the best team in Victoria (and thus a team that has the advantage of playing finals at home at the MCG), the Blues deserve to be viewed as the nearest challenger. And that's even taking into account last week's disappointing loss to the Giants. Am I as confident in either as I was two weeks ago? No. But are they still the two teams most likely to hoist the premiership cup? Absolutely.
The late 90s Adelaide Crows
3. BRISBANE
Few could have, or would have, predicted the Crows to reign supreme in either 1997 or 1998 after beginning BOTH seasons a disappointing 1-3, records which quickly became 2-4. But midseason recoveries and key player form upticks helped lead the club to its two -- and only -- premierships. This year's Lions feel as if they're walking a similar path. Chris Fagan's mob couldn't buy a win early in the year, losing three straight to open their season, and only saluting in two of their first seven games. But things are nowhere near as bleak now. Brisbane's lost just once since Round 8, climbing back into the top eight, as well as flag calculations. Timing is everything in sport, and nobody looks to be doing it better than the Lions.
Perfectly primed for a Steven Bradbury
4. FREMANTLE
5. GWS
6. COLLINGWOOD
7. GEELONG
8. PORT ADELAIDE
Throw a blanket over them all, I say. If you were to ask a dozen people to rank these five teams from best to worst, you would likely get a dozen different responses. All of these sides have had moments where they look like contenders, but they've also had periods that have left us scratching our heads and questioning their premiership credentials. But with the top two sides seemingly coming back to the pack in recent weeks, 2024 is beginning to feel like it could be a year where an unlikely premier emerges. Could it be the under-the-radar Dockers who have built the third best record in the competition? Perhaps the Magpies or Cats rediscover some sparkling September form. Or maybe the Giants or Power finally break through after extended periods up the pointy end of the ladder. It's hard to discount any of them.
Pump the brakes
9. ESSENDON
10. HAWTHORN
Both the Bombers and Hawks have shattered pre-season expectations and put themselves in positions to either be relevant when September rolls around, or, at the very least, alive in the final fortnight of the year. But can either of them win the premiership this year? Deep down we all know the answer to this question. For Essendon, it's hard to look past that percentage of 99.9, which tells us they're losing the season. As does the expected scores ladder which has them placed 13th after Round 17. For Hawthorn, their sluggish start to the year means their margin for error in the final two months is so low. With four games to come against teams positioned higher on the ladder it's tough to see them not slipping up at least a couple of times. Neither will be premiers in 2024, but both clubs and fanbases should be bullish about next season.
Get the big red Texta out
11. MELBOURNE
12. WESTERN BULLDOGS
13. GOLD COAST
In the words of Breaking Bad's Mike Ehrmantraut, "you're done!" These three teams are finished. Could one of them sneak into finals? Sure. But are they any legitimate chance of making a serious run? No. The Demons have been the biggest disappointment of the year, and with Christian Petracca sidelined for the year and skipper Max Gawn now set to join him for at least a couple of weeks, it's tough to see how the season can be turned around. The Bulldogs simply cannot be trusted week to week. They fact they haven't had a three-game winning or losing streak since Round 11 last year proves just how up and down they are. And then there's the Suns, who literally cannot win on the road. How on earth can they be trusted?
Not even the diehards believe
14. ADELAIDE
15. ST KILDA
With all due respect to the Crows and Saints, these teams are not good. The footy world knows it, and so do their fanbases. Sure, they have each had moments and stirring wins throughout the 2024 season, but a combined record of 11 wins, 20 losses, and a draw highlights just how far they've been off the pace. There's also a feeling that things might get worse before they get better for both clubs.
Can see the light
16. NORTH MELBOURNE
The Kangaroos are 2-3 over their last five weeks, but could easily have been 4-1 if not for the comeback of all comebacks by the Magpies and some wastefulness against the Demons. In those five games, they've only coughed up 100 points once, something they did in each of their first 11 games. Harry Sheezel and Luke Davies-Uniacke continue to show their class in the midfield, the backline is looking more sound with easy passing week, and the team is finally playing a sustainable brand of footy. North Melbourne is through the worst of it and the club should now be able to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
The price of premiership success
17. WEST COAST
18. RICHMOND
Most fans would probably sign up for a premiership (in Richmond's case, three of them) if they knew a prolonged stint in footy's wilderness would follow. Granted, the Eagles are a little further along than the Tigers in their rebuild, but both clubs are languishing down the bottom of the ladder as a result of going all in late last decade to capitalise on their premiership-ready lists. West Coast showed some life with a stirring win over the Demons in Round 11, but that's been followed by six straight losses. Richmond, meanwhile, has won twice all year and have firmed as the favourite to collect this year's wooden spoon.