Collingwood's Saturday clash with Hawthorn is massive for both teams in terms of their final eight hopes. But it's also big because of what a loss for the Magpies might say about where the AFL competition is headed.
Hawthorn, you'll remember, lost its first five games, and six of its first seven. It's still only 13th on the ladder. But remarkably, it's also just a game outside the top eight, and only a game-and-a-half from a top four spot.
Perhaps even more remarkably though, given the premiership glow in which Collingwood was basking not long ago, the reigning premier is 12th, above the Hawks by percentage only, and defeat will likely leave it two games outside the eight with only five games remaining.
The Pies have a very winnable game next week against Richmond, but the task for them then, in order, is Carlton, Sydney (away), Brisbane, and Melbourne. That's tough, to say the least.
Even with a win this week, the Pies are still going to battle to reach the finals. And that's significant from more than just a Collingwood perspective.
Because the Pies would become the fourth reigning premier of the past eight seasons to miss out altogether on the subsequent September. And further proof that not only are the days of dynasties seemingly now done and dusted, but with a longer than ever queue of would-be usurpers, in the AFL of the 2020s, you're a rooster one day, a feather duster the next.
The Western Bulldogs kicked off the latter-day trend by missing out on the eight in 2017 the season after breaking their 62-year flag drought. But while Richmond's three flags in four seasons from 2017-20 appeared to proclaim the dynasty concept alive and well, what's come since has been anything but.
The Tigers missed out on the 2021 finals. As did Geelong last year after steamrolling everyone in September of 2022. And the Pies missing out now would make it three defending premiers in four years to be left with a spare September the following year.
If that is the new norm, it's in stark contrast to what was happening previously. Because in a 17-season period between 2000 and 2016, only once did a premiership team fail to at least make the eight the following year.
That was Hawthorn in 2009, and even then, the Hawks finished ninth and were right in the hunt for a finals berth until the very last game. Not only that, but that same timespan produced the greatest single-club eras of the AFL age.
Those years are bookended by the flag hat-tricks won by Brisbane (2001-03) and Hawthorn (2013-15), with Geelong's three premierships (and four Grand Finals in five years) in-between.
And it was a period in which besides that trifecta of great teams, Collingwood (twice), West Coast and Sydney (against each other) and St Kilda all at least played in consecutive deciders.
The best sides didn't lose much, and when they were very good, they stayed very good for longer. Indeed, in 2009-10, the entire AFL top four remained the same, only the order among Geelong, St Kilda, Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs changing.
But the levers of equalisation catch up with even the best eventually, not just via the salary cap and draft, but a weighted draw.
It's just as the AFL wanted it, and the result has been a concertinaing of the 18 teams, the bottom of the ladder more competitive as a whole than it once was, the top not quite as good, another reason we're seeing more examples of best teams one season become also-rans the next.
And if the numbers on their own don't convince, perhaps the names will.
As good as was Collingwood in 2023, in terms of pound-for-pound individual talent, there's a pretty sizeable gap between the Magpies' star class last September and that of, for example, Geelong's premiership side of 2007.
The Pies last year had Nick and Josh Daicos, Jordan De Goey, Darcy Moore, maybe one or two more as acknowledged stars, like Tom Mitchell and Jack Crisp. But the Cats of 2007 had nine players named in the All-Australian team.
Even Geelong's dominant 2022 premiership team doesn't stack up in terms of pound for pound talent alongside the 2007 side. Consider the roll call of Gary Ablett, Matthew Scarlett, Jimmy Bartel, Corey Enright, Steve Johnson, Paul Chapman, Joel Selwood, Andrew Mackie and James Kelly ... and that's just the cream on top.
Little wonder those Cats nearly pulled off the perfect flag defence, losing just one game all season on their way to the Grand Final ... and yes, much credit to Hawthorn for knocking them off when it mattered most.
I'd happily back the Cats of 17 years ago against any team which has come since, even the hat-trick Hawks of 2013-15. And those Hawthorn teams similarly I'd be comfortable tipping against Richmond's dynasty sides of 2017-20. Are you spotting the trend here?
Even if Collingwood does miss the finals from here, it isn't going to raise as many eyebrows as it would have a decade ago. And of course, there's the not inconsiderable consolation of last year's premiership.
There's a shorter timeframe now in which to make hay while the sun shines. And the Pies, like the Cats and Tigers, at least have some silverware to polish. Which, of course, one club hanging around the top of the ladder for a few years now still doesn't.
Are you listening to all this, Brisbane?
You can read more of Rohan Connolly's work at FOOTYOLOGY.