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The final round: when a win means more than just four points

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Like most years now it seems, the regular AFL season has come down to what should be an exciting conclusion this weekend. This one, however, might have even more spice than usual. Why? Because in 2024, there's a race within a race within another race going on.

Yes, we have the battle for positions in the final eight as a whole, involving Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, Carlton and Fremantle, all of whom can still miss out on a finals spot should they lose and other results fall the wrong way.

Then there's the jockeying for a top four spot, which, while it would require the most unlikely event of West Coast defeating Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, is technically still open to Brisbane, the Bulldogs, Hawks and Blues.

But wait ... there's more. And that is in the shape of the battle for a top two spot. And why is that any different to usual? Because of the sizeable non-Victorian factor in this year's finals series, with potentially five sides from beyond the Murray River playing off for a flag. And because of the importance of hosting finals to all of them.

Take Brisbane, for example, which conceivably may have cost itself a premiership last Saturday when Joe Daniher, with only six minutes 40 seconds left on the clock, missed from relatively dead in front of goal 40 metres out.

A goal would have put Brisbane 23 points up and almost certainly ensured victory. And going into Saturday night's home clash with Essendon, the Lions would have had very realistic ambitions (should they win and Port Adelaide and GWS lose) of a second-place finish and two Gabba finals en-route to the MCG on Grand Final day, similar to last year's journey which fell only a straight kick short of the ultimate prize.

Instead, Brisbane, unless the Eagles (paying $10.50 for the win) somehow pull off one of the greatest upsets in AFL history, can finish no higher than fifth. And while that may mean a home final in week one at least, it also necessitates three finals wins in a row on the road to deliver that elusive flag. You can write your own ticket on that prospect.

Those sort of stakes on the line are what makes Sunday, the final afternoon of a six-month schedule of 207 home and away games, so enthralling.

Often in these situations the focus is squarely on the race for the bottom end of the eight, in this case whether the injury-afflicted Carlton can beat St Kilda and perhaps end Fremantle's finals hopes before the Dockers even take the field in Perth against Port Adelaide.

But this time, second spot means just as much, with the Power (second) and the Giants (third) both locked on 60 points and separated by about three-and-a-half percent, yet potentially both leapfrogged by Geelong should the Cats beat the Eagles by well in excess of 100 points.

And given how insipid West Coast was even at home against Carlton last week, that's not out of the question at all. For the Cats, unlikely though it is, that would be the difference between a final at the MCG and one in either Sydney or Adelaide.

That's significant given the Cats are 0-3 in finals at Adelaide Oval, and infamously lost their only finals game at the SCG in 2005 at the hands of Nick Davis's final term heroics for the Swans.

GWS, which beat Western Bulldogs in Ballarat by five points late last year, will be wanting not only to win again, but by a decent amount to clamber over Port into second spot even should the Power win in Perth in the final game of the round.

That would mean a final at its Engie Stadium home, where it has won two of three finals, as opposed to one in either Adelaide, where it is 1-1 in finals, or (more unlikely) Melbourne (where the Giants are 2-4).

That said, the Giants' relative lack of support and regular scheduling in a range of venues more widespread than any other team in the competition appears to have hardened them to life on the road.

Their overall away finals record is a handy 7-6, and last year they won two interstate finals before falling one point short of Collingwood in the preliminary final.

You certainly suspect the Giants would be more sanguine about the prospect now than the Power, whose record even in home finals at 9-8 is hardly indicative of a major advantage, and whose away record in them at 4-8 is considerably worse still.

A GWS win over the Dogs most likely means the Power needs to beat Fremantle in Perth or face the prospect of a final away to the Giants. And the degree of difficulty of that task against Freo will have just gone up given GWS's victory opens the finals door for the Dockers at the Bulldogs' expense.

Yes, it's complicated. But the catalogue of potential finals scenarios makes this final home-and-away round a de facto week of finals in itself with spots in the eight, top four and top two all still up for grabs.

There's generally a call around now for the final round to be played concurrently like English Premier League soccer. This however, might be one year we're grateful it isn't. Imagine how many heads would be exploding were we trying to sort all these possibilities out at once?

You can read more of Rohan Connolly's work at FOOTYOLOGY.