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Expert tips, best tips for AFL preliminary final weekend

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Michaels on Mitchell: 'Give me a fricking break' (1:25)

The ESPN Footy Podcast crew discuss Ken Hinkley's and Jack Ginnivan's actions before and after Port Adelaide's semifinal against Hawthorn, and Sam Mitchell's following comments. (1:25)

Welcome back, everyone! It's time for AFL preliminary final weekend. Our footy experts have put their heads together to help you out. So open your ESPNfootytips app, take notes, and get ahead of the game!

The 2024 AFL final series has exceeded what was expected and no doubt the final two weeks will be the same. Four teams remain but only two spots await for that famous day in September.

On Friday night, Sydney will host Port Adelaide at the SCG. The Swans have not beaten Port since 2017 and the last time these two met Port got the better of the Swans by 112 points, which caused many to rule a line through Sydney. However, finals football is a different beast, so could a home game be what gets them over the line? Will Isaac Heeney's heroics be needed again, or will someone else stand up?

Port Adelaide's last two weeks have been a whirlwind; one week they are handed one of their worst ever losses in a final and the next week they are congratulated for one of their best ever wins since the 2004 Grand Final. Ken Hinkley has been the main headline for the Power in the last few days, could it derail the rest of their final series, or will the momentum from last week's win get them over the line?

On Saturday night, Geelong and Brisbane will face off at the MCG, one of these teams will be back the following week at the same ground, the other will be at Mad Monday. The Cats have been one of the most successful teams in the modern era, they carry experience and expertise going into this game, and the Lions carry the hunger from last year's disappointment.

While Geelong enjoyed the week off the Lions pulled off a stunning 44-point comeback, the second-largest comeback in finals history. Question marks still remain whether the Lions can win at the 'G and their kicking in front of goal. For the Cats, how much weight relies on Patrick Dangerfield to get his side over the line?

These two games are going to be big, but don't worry, we've got your back.


EXPERT TIPS:

Jake Michaels

Last week: 0
Season total: 133

Certainty and why: The Swans have been the best team all year. They're rested, at home, and primed for this year's premiership.

Upset and why: I've been a Cats skeptic all year and am still unconvinced they have enough weapons to win it all. If the Lions put a four quarter performance, together they win this prelim.

Tips for the week:

Sydney Swans vs. Port Adelaide
Geelong vs. Brisbane


Matt Walsh

Last week: 1
Season total: 138

Certainty and why: Don't worry about the Swans not having beaten Port in eight years. Drastically different teams, and eras. Don't worry about the last start, in which Port won by 112 points. A week is a long time in footy, let alone two months. Swans easily.

Upset and why: Wouldn't be surprised if the Lions beat the Cats, but I'll back the 'home' team.

Tips for the week:

Sydney Swans vs. Port Adelaide
Geelong vs. Brisbane


Jarryd Barca

Last week: 0
Season total: 130

Certainty and why: Even if they make a Grand Final, I still won't believe in Port Adelaide. Sydney will be too strong at home.

Upset and why: This was clearly the harder of the prelims to pick and, even at the MCG, these two teams are pretty evenly matched. I'll side with the Lions... just.

Tips for the week:

Sydney Swans vs. Port Adelaide
Geelong vs. Brisbane