<
>

Reality is Rex Ryan got Bills no closer to contention

play
Bills' OT loss likely behind timing for Ryan brothers' firing (0:57)

ESPN Bills reporter Mike Rodak says the team's overtime loss to Miami was the final straw and it was a slight surprise that Buffalo decided to fire both head coach Rex Ryan and defensive coordinator Rob Ryan ahead of its season finale. (0:57)

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. -- Dressed sharply in a navy suit, glistening red tie and crisp white shirt, Rex Ryan stepped to the lectern, tapped the microphone and with conviction asked the crowd, "Is this thing on? Because it's getting ready to be on."

It was the afternoon of Jan. 14, 2015, Ryan's third day as Buffalo Bills head coach. Two weeks earlier, Doug Marrone had quit the same job, opting to use a little-known escape clause in his contract despite leading the Bills to their first winning season since 2004. Realizing an opportunity, Ryan quickly got to work selling hope to a spurned fan base.

"I'm not going to let our fans down," Ryan said. "I am not going to do that. I know it’s been 15 years since the Bills made the playoffs. Well, get ready, man. We're going. We are going."

Almost two years later, the Bills have not made the playoffs. Their postseason drought, now the longest among the four major North American professional sports leagues, has extended to 17 seasons. Despite Ryan's initial promise, the Bills seem no closer to climbing out of mediocrity and into championship contention.

That is why Bills owners Terry and Kim Pegula's decision to fire Ryan on Tuesday is logical despite their earlier pleas for fans' patience in building a winning product. Continuity among the coaching staff and front office, while desirable when there are encouraging signs of progress on the field, borders on madness when flaws are not fixed and weaknesses outnumber strengths -- which is exactly the state in which Ryan has left his team.

In his 31 games as Bills coach, during which he posted a 15-16 record, Ryan won only two contests against teams that later made the playoffs: a 30-21 home victory over the Houston Texans in December 2015 and a 16-0 road win over the Jacoby Brissett-led New England Patriots in Week 4 of this season.

If his club has proved largely incapable of winning games against good teams, what sense does it make keeping Ryan around as coach?

Ryan delivers little impact on the offensive side of the ball, but defense is where he was expected to deliver results. He arrived in Buffalo proud of his Jets defenses finishing 11th or better in all six of his seasons in New York, as well as his track record of coaching an aggressive and blitz-heavy scheme that often gave rival quarterback Tom Brady trouble. Yet in the Bills' three games against Brady under Ryan, the Patriots quarterback averaged 352 passing yards per game and a 103.8 quarterback rating while throwing for eight touchdowns and only one interception.

Ryan declared upon taking the Buffalo job that his defense would lead the NFL, but in his 31 games as Bills coach, that group has ranked 24th in DVOA, 23rd in yards allowed per game, 15th in points allowed, 21st in yards allowed per play, 30th in yards allowed per rush, 15th in net yards per pass attempt, 29th in sacks per pass attempt, 20th in third-down conversion rate and 24th in red zone conversion rate. Ryan also has overseen a defense that allowed the franchise's most passing yards in a game (466 by Brady in September 2015) and most rushing yards in a game (236 by Le'Veon Bell in December 2016).

So, again, why does it make sense for Ryan to remain as coach if he has not been a positive influence on the defense?

The only reason for Ryan to stay would have been for his abilities as a leader and motivator -- qualities that tend to be nebulous and cannot be easily measured by statistics. Players enjoy Ryan's behind-the-scenes humor, looser team rules and how he defends his players when they are under fire. But the Oakland Raiders' scoring 29 unanswered points and reversing the Bills' 15-point lead in a crippling Week 13 loss this season spoke volumes about the mental toughness of Ryan's team, and the squad's discipline can be questioned in light of 255 total penalties since the start of the 2015 season -- second most in the NFL.

If an argument can be made for Ryan sticking around, it lies not in what the Bills will lose in Ryan but in what the Bills will not gain by firing him. Turning over a coaching staff rarely yields immediate results because players need time to adapt to changing terminology, schemes and philosophies. With that in mind, the Pegulas and team president Russ Brandon have often cited the need for continuity within an organization that has undergone six head-coaching changes and run through 11 offensive coordinators and eight defensive coordinators since its last playoff appearance.

However, the Bills do not have to look beyond their division for an example in which bucking continuity for a complete overhaul has brought success. The Miami Dolphins, after clinging to coach Joe Philbin through three full non-winning seasons, turned to Adam Gase this season and reinvigorated their club with a 10-5 start and the franchise's first playoff appearance since 2008.

Who's to say, with Ryan now gone, the Bills can't manage the same turnaround?