Here’s a look at the Super Bowl prospects of the Chicago Bears, who finished the season 3-13:
Bears Super Bowl barometer: Nowhere close.
Assessing the foundation: A foundation exists. Chicago’s 2016 draft class contains several players who can be identified as future core contributors. At the top of the list is running back Jordan Howard, who set the franchise single-season rookie rushing record with 1,313 yards. Howard’s main drawback is he lacks a second gear, but that can be complemented if the Bears add a speedy, change-of-pace back in the offseason. Last year’s ninth overall pick, outside linebacker Leonard Floyd, finished tied for second on the club with seven sacks. Second-round choice Cody Whitehair looks to be a future Pro Bowler at center or guard. The Bears also were pleased with linebacker Nick Kwiatkoski, who started seven games. Elsewhere, the Bears have faith in numerous other younger players, including nose tackle Eddie Goldman (23), right guard Kyle Long (28), defensive end Akiem Hicks (27), linebacker Danny Trevathan (26) and wide receiver Cameron Meredith (24).
The problem is the Bears face extreme uncertainty at several key positions. Who plays quarterback? Do they keep receiver Alshon Jeffery? Who replaces Jeffery if he departs via free agency? Can anyone in the secondary intercept the football? Can Kevin White or Pernell McPhee stay healthy? The Bears have done a respectable job building a small core, but they are multiple impact players away from being a playoff contender, much less a Super Bowl contender.
Judging the quarterback: What quarterback? The Bears don’t have one. All signs point toward the Bears trading or releasing veteran Jay Cutler, who led the franchise to one playoff berth in eight years. Moving Cutler opens up $13 million worth of salary cap space. The Bears may attempt to trade for New England’s Jimmy Garoppolo. They also could kick the tires on Tony Romo, who turns 37 years old in April. However, Romo has played only five games since 2014, so age and durability are major concerns.
Expect the Bears to draft a quarterback this year, but there is no guarantee that player will be ready to start in 2017. The Bears -- if they fail to land Garoppolo -- could be looking at a situation where a bridge quarterback plays until the draft pick is ready. Under that scenario, the Bears could re-sign veteran Brian Hoyer, or use Matt Barkley or Connor Shaw. Even Romo fits in that dynamic, but he would cost $14 million in 2017. The other options are much cheaper. There is unfortunately no simple solution for the Bears. They got themselves into this mess by sticking with Cutler for way too long and not drafting a suitable replacement. Things would undoubtedly be better had the Bears allowed Cutler to walk after 2013, instead of signing him to another long-term extension.
Realistic ways the Bears can improve their chances to contend for a Super Bowl:
1. Draft the right quarterback: The 2017 quarterback draft class is supposedly average. But if the next Dak Prescott is out there, the Bears better find him. They are desperate to find a long-term fix. Another solution is trading for Garoppolo if you truly believe he is a franchise-caliber passer.
2. Extend Alshon Jeffery: Sorry, the Bears won’t be better without Jeffery. He turns 27 in February. Is Jeffery perfect? No. But he is light years better than anything else the Bears have at the position. Worst case -- apply the franchise tag again and buy more time.
3. Overhaul the secondary: The Bears need more interceptions from the back end. Chicago’s pass rush (37 sacks) was above average in 2016. But they had only eight interceptions. That’s brutal and has to be addressed if the defense wants to take the next step.