I tried not to cheat when doing my first version of a mock draft for the New Orleans Saints.
Pairing them with Tennessee defensive end Derek Barnett is almost too easy. He fills their biggest need -- an edge rusher who had 33 sacks as a three-year starter. And the value is right at pick No. 11. It reminds me of when most of the mock-drafting world nailed the Saints’ pick of defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins at No. 12 last year.
But that’s what I came up with after eliminating the 10 players most likely to be gone when the Saints are on the clock in two weeks.
If Barnett does go in the top 10 -- which is a distinct possibility -- this becomes a much more difficult exercise.
Seven players almost certain to be gone:
Three players I project will be gone:
Saints’ most likely picks:
1. Tennessee DE Derek Barnett. The 6-foot-3, 259-pound Barnett might not be the most dynamic athlete among the edge rushers in this year’s draft class. But he seems to check off the most boxes of anyone behind Garrett and Thomas.
Barnett obviously has the experience and production at a high level in the SEC. Analysts credit intangibles such as Barnett’s instincts and hand movement. And he has better size than some DE/OLB tweeners. The Saints tend to like bigger edge rushers who can play defensive end in a four-man front -- even though their defense is multiple, like most NFL defenses.
2. Ohio State CB Gareon Conley. If an edge rusher is the Saints’ No. 1 need, cornerback is 1A. Conley is not universally rated as a top-15 prospect. But he has been one of the fastest risers in mock drafts since his terrific performance at the NFL scouting combine (where he measured in with 33-inch arms and ran the 40-yard dash in 4.44 seconds). And the Saints obviously have faith in the Ohio State program after successfully drafting receiver Michael Thomas and safety Vonn Bell in the second round last year.
Conley (6-foot, 195 pounds) was a two-year starter with the Buckeyes with six interceptions in the past two seasons. Another possibility here is Washington’s 6-foot-3 cornerback Kevin King, whom ESPN analyst Todd McShay picked in his latest Insider mock draft, where he put himself in the shoes of each team’s general manager.
3. Alabama LB Reuben Foster or Temple LB/DE Haason Reddick. These guys both fit the “best available player” criteria. And the Saints could obviously use all the help they can get on a defense that has struggled in the past three years. But New Orleans is a bit overcrowded at linebacker after signing veterans A.J. Klein and Manti Te’o in free agency. Both Foster (6-foot, 229) and Reddick (6-1, 237) would likely project as weakside linebackers for the Saints, even though Foster played middle linebacker and Reddick played defensive end in college.
Foster will have to shed some character concerns after he was sent home from the combine following an argument with a hospital worker. But there is little doubting his talent level. Earlier this year, McShay described him as “one of the better inside linebacker prospects in recent memory.” Reddick, meanwhile, has soared up draft boards after standout performances at both the Senior Bowl and combine. And the Saints could possibly use him in a multiple role after he had 10.5 sacks and 22.5 tackles for loss last year.
4. Michigan DE Taco Charlton. Draft analysts can’t seem to settle on Charlton’s stock. He was generating top-10, top-15 buzz early in the process, but now some analysts have him in the 20s or out of the first round entirely. Perhaps that’s because he was a late bloomer at Michigan and didn’t become a full-time starter until his senior year, finishing with 9.5 sacks in his final 10 games.
I still like the fit in New Orleans, though, because the need for an edge rusher is so great and since Charlton has excellent size at 6-6 and 277 pounds. I think the Saints would be more attracted to him than a smaller edge rusher such as UCLA’s Takkarist McKinley (6-2, 250). But they will consider all shapes and sizes to make their defense more disruptive.
5. Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey. We just saw the Saints trade away dynamic receiver Brandin Cooks, saying they need more resources to improve the defense. But because they have five picks in the first three rounds, they don’t all have to be on defense. And McCaffrey would be a younger, cheaper playmaker to help fill the void.
We know the Saints love their dual threat runner/receivers in Sean Payton’s offense (see: Reggie Bush, Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas). And McCaffrey (5-11, 202) is a special one, with more than 4,500 combined rushing and receiving yards in the past two years. The Saints have a need for a running back to help share the load with Mark Ingram after letting Tim Hightower get away in free agency.
Wild-card: North Carolina QB Mitch Trubisky or Texas Tech QB Patrick Mahomes II. There is a good possibility the Saints could use one of those five early picks on a quarterback to groom behind Drew Brees. But it would be pretty stunning to see them take the plunge this early – especially since analysts seem to agree that this year’s QB class isn't that strong. But if that allows a top prospect like Watson or Trubisky to fall to the Saints at No. 11 – or if they really love Mahomes’ dynamic potential – then never say never. ESPN analyst Jon Gruden, a close friend and former colleague of Payton's, said he thinks Mahomes could be the top QB prospect in this year's draft in this Insider piece.