<
>

Slow starts could be the fatal flaw for Bucs' playoff run

TAMPA, Fla. -- Did Sunday feel like a win for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Atlanta Falcons? Sure, they came away with a victory and now own a 9-5 record. They've also got a favorable, two-game schedule remaining (at the Lions on Dec. 26 and at home versus the Falcons on Jan. 3) that has them positioned for their first trip to the postseason since 2007.

But again they were plagued by a slow start, falling behind 17-0 at halftime before roaring back to score 31 points in the second half against a now-4-10 Falcons squad. It was the fourth time they’ve trailed by 17 or more points in the first half this season, tied with the previously winless New York Jets for the most in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. It was also their seventh time trailing by double digits in the first half this season. Only the Jets and Washington have done that more times.

“My comments to the team after the game [were], ‘If we can play 30 minutes like that, why can’t we play 60?’ It’s frustrating,” coach Bruce Arians said.

Slow starts have been their Achilles' heel this season, even more so than their widely publicized struggles in prime-time games. Their minus-19 points differential in the first half of games is 19th in the league -- the worst of any team with a winning record.

In their Week 5 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers, they were down 24-7 with 1:41 to go in the first half. In their Week 6 upset over the Green Bay Packers, they were down 10-0 by the end of the first quarter. They were down 14-9 to the New York Giants at halftime in Week 8.

But against better teams -- with the Packers being the one outlier -- they haven't been able to come back, which could ultimately come back to bite them in the playoffs. In the past 20 seasons, teams are 3-29 when trailing by 17 or more at halftime in the playoffs, with Tom Brady having one of those wins in Super Bowl LI.

“We know how talented we are as a team. It’s just for whatever reason, we shoot ourselves in the foot and we can’t string together 60 minutes,” tight end Cam Brate said. “You can win against teams that aren’t going to make the playoffs right now, but I don’t think we will win too many playoff games spotting a team 17 points. It’s going to be something we’re going to have to figure out.”

What's behind these slow starts? Here’s a closer look.

Defense: Poor communication, missed assignments

On defense, it's been a number of things -- from poor communication and missed assignments (Saints, Chiefs) to poor tackling (Rams). Poor matchups such as Carlton Davis one-on-one with Tyreek Hill with no safety help over the top have also been an issue, as has lack of pressure.

"They did a great job of max protection," Arians said of the Falcons, which is why the Bucs struggled to get to Matt Ryan before Devin White notched 3.0 sacks in the second half.

But even White missed a tackle on a checkdown to Todd Gurley on the opening drive on third-and-9 that would have gotten them off the field. Antoine Winfield Jr. and Lavonte David both curiously went to the flat with fullback Keith Smith on Russell Gage's 27-yard reception on that drive, with no help for Sean Murphy-Bunting on the deep post route as he was playing Gage very far off the line of scrimmage. Tight end Luke Stocker was also completely unaccounted for in the flat for a 25-yard gain.

“I feel like every time, it’s a hit-and-miss,” White said. “Great players will make you pay for it."

Murphy-Bunting had one of his worst days in coverage, losing outside leverage against Gage on a 5-yard touchdown and losing track of Calvin Ridley on a 12-yard touchdown in the second quarter, but all three of the Bucs’ young starting cornerbacks -- Murphy-Bunting, Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean -- have been picked on this season.

“Defensively, we shouldn’t need growth,” Arians said. “We should be ready to play.”

Offense: Not establishing the run, pressure, poor throws

Without Ronald Jones against the Falcons, the Bucs rushed for just 1.0 yard per carry on first and second down in the first half -- the worst of any team this weekend. But even throughout the season, the Bucs’ 3.24 yards per rush average on first and second down in the first half is the second-worst in the league, making things challenging for an offense that has recommitted itself to establishing the run and using play-action.

Offensively, Brady has missed some throws early on in games -- although in the case of Atlanta and the absence of left tackle Donovan Smith, Brady was pressured quite a bit, which was also the case against the Saints when they were without Ali Marpet. Brady was pressured on 27.8% of dropbacks in the first half against Atlanta and just 6.7% in the second.

Play selection hasn't always done them favors. The Bucs have thrown the ball 23 times on third-and-short (less than 3 yards) in the first half this season -- the most in the NFL. But they're converting just 56.5% of third downs in the first half in those situations (15th in the NFL)

Brady has also attempted 37 passes of 20 or more air yards in the first half of games this year -- second-most in the NFL -- but his completion percentage on such throws is just 29.7%, 29th in the NFL.

In the second half, however, Brady tends to get into more of a rhythm and his completion percentage on such throws shoots up to 42.9%. In fact, his 15 completions of 20 or more air yards in the second half is tied for third-highest in the league.

Odds against Bucs if they keep playing from behind

The Bucs will be in for a rough time against some of the NFC’s points-scoring machines if they can’t resolve their slow starts on both sides of the ball come January.

The top-seeded Packers (11-3) are averaging 18.5 points in the first half of games this season -- the most in the NFL. They also have a league-leading points differential of plus-116 in the first half of games.

The second-seeded New Orleans Saints (10-4) have beaten the Bucs twice already and are averaging 15.57 points in the first half of games with a total points differential of plus-58. But before Drew Brees' injury -- and he has since returned -- they were averaging 18.66 first-half points per game, the league's best from Weeks 1-10.

And if it all ended today, the Bucs would be the sixth seed, playing the third seed Seattle Seahawks at Seattle. The Seahawks are averaging 14.42 points in the first half with a first-half points differential of plus-55.