Falcons (4-11) at Buccaneers (10-5)

1 p.m. ET | Fox

Matchup rating: 73.7 | Spread: TB -7 (50)

What to watch for: The Falcons had a 17-0 lead on the Bucs at halftime two weeks ago and became the only team this season to hold the Chiefs to fewer than 20 points last week. But they haven't been able to close out games. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are hoping they can put four quarters together as a final tuneup heading into their first postseason since 2007. And make no mistake about it, they want to go streaking into the playoffs. This would be their fourth straight win if they can do it. -- Jenna Laine

Bold prediction: Bucs receiver Mike Evans had 110 yards receiving against Atlanta two weeks ago and 181 last week against Detroit. But the Falcons will hold him to 55 yards on Sunday. However, quarterback Tom Brady will surpass 300 yards passing for a third straight game, marking the first time he will have done so since Weeks 2-4 of 2017. -- John Keim

Stat to know: Brady already has a team-record 36 passing touchdowns this season, and he could become the first player with 40 passing TDs in a season at age 40 or older. His Atlanta counterpart, QB Matt Ryan, has 24 passing touchdowns this season, one shy of reaching 25 for the ninth time in his career.

Playoff/draft picture: The Buccaneers already locked up a playoff berth and are eliminated from the NFC South race. So what are they playing for? Well, with a win against Atlanta or a Rams loss, Tampa Bay will secure the top wild-card seeding, for which FPI is giving it an 83.6% chance. That would give the Bucs a wild-card matchup with the winner of the dreadful NFC East. The Falcons are eliminated from the playoffs and are currently projected to end up with the NFL draft's third pick. They have a 76.2% chance of finishing with at least a top-five pick.

Injuries: Falcons | Buccaneers

What to know for fantasy: Since Week 12, Falcons receiver Calvin Ridley is the fourth-highest-scoring receiver in fantasy and leads the league with 575 receiving yards. See Week 17 rankings.

Betting nugget: Each of the past five meetings between these teams, and eight of the past nine, have gone over the total. Read more.

Keim's pick: Buccaneers 30, Falcons 23

Laine's pick: Buccaneers 31, Falcons 21

FPI prediction: TB, 74.3% (by an average of 8.7 points)

Matchup must-reads: Are Falcons closer to being a contender than their 4-11 record suggests? ... Even at 4-11, Falcons will test Bucs in areas where they've struggled ... Before Bucs embark on playoff run, Evans has some history to make