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College football Week 11 betting trends: Why TCU might have an edge over Texas

Max Duggan and the TCU Horned Frogs enter their primetime matchup against Texas as 7-point underdogs, despite being No. 4 in the CFP rankings. AP Photo/Ron Jenkins

Week 11 of the 2022 college football season features plenty of AP Top 25 action and a few games with major College Football Playoff implications. Heisman sleeper candidate Bo Nix and the Oregon Ducks take on the Washington Huskies is a battle of Top 25 Pac-12 contenders and Ole Miss and Alabama duke it out in Oxford as Lane Kiffin's squad attempts to make a statement over Nick Saban. However, one of the most intriguing games on Saturday night is in the Big 12 as Max Duggan and TCU Horned Frogs look to upset Quinn Ewers and the Texas Longhorns as 7-point underdogs.

With plenty of questions and games to wager on this weekend, and we have everything you need to make your betting decisions ahead of Week 11.

Check out all of the notes and trends courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information.

Rankings are from AP Top-25 poll before College Football Playoff Rankings are revealed.


Friday

Colorado at No. 8 USC (-34, 64)
8 p.m. ET, Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, California

  • Overs are 1-4-1 in the last six meetings in the series.

  • Overs are 7-3 in games where USC is a home favorite since the start of last season.

  • Colorado is 2-7 ATS this season, tied for the third-worst cover percentage in FBS.

  • Colorado is 0-4 ATS on the road, tied with Boston College and UAB for the most cover losses without a cover win on the road this season.

Saturday

Missouri at No. 5 Tennessee (21, 56.5)
noon ET, Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, Tennessee

  • Tennessee: 6-1 ATS as a favorite this season (7-0 SU), T-most cover wins as a favorite this season (T-7th best cover percentage).

  • Missouri: first time being a 21-plus point underdog against any team not named Alabama or Georgia since 2012 (Texas A&M).

  • Missouri: 4-1 ATS as 21-plus point underdog in last 10 seasons, 3rd-best cover percentage over span.

  • Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in last six games as 21-plus point favorite; largest favorite either team has been in series history.

Indiana at No. 2 Ohio State (-41.5, 57.5)
noon ET, Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio

  • Favorites of 40-plus points are 24-17 ATS this season (5-3 ATS in FBS vs FBS matchups)

  • Indiana is 6-0 ATS in last six games at Ohio State; only team Ohio State hasn't covered against at home since 2011 (min. 2 games)

  • Largest spread in series since the FBS/FCS split (OSU: 2-4 ATS vs Indiana in games favored by 30-plus points)

  • Indiana is 1-7 ATS against AP Ranked opponents since the start of last season, worst ATS record over span (min. 5 games)

No. 7 LSU (-3, 62) at Arkansas
noon ET on ESPN, Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, Arkansas

  • The Under has hit in four of the last five games and six of the last eight meetings between these two teams.

  • The Over is 7-2 in Arkansas games this year (4-1 at home), tied for the fifth-highest Over percentage this season (T-10th-highest home cover percentage).

  • Arkansas is 2-15 SU as a home underdog in last 17 games (9-8 ATS).

  • LSU is 6-1 SU as a road favorite vs Arkansas in last 20 years (4-3 ATS).

Purdue at No. 21 Illinois (-6.5, 47)
noon ET on ESPN, Memorial Stadium, Champaign, Illinois

  • The Under is 6-2-1 in Illinois games this season, T-highest Under percentage in the Big Ten (4-1-1 in home games).

  • The Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in the series.

  • The Over is 6-0 in the last six games where Purdue is a underdog of 7 or less points.

No. 19 Liberty (-14.5, 48.5) at UConn
12 p.m. ET, Pratt & Whitney Stadium, East Hartford, CT

  • UConn has covered in six straight games, tied-longest active streak in FBS.

  • UConn is 5-1 ATS in last six games against ranked opponents at home.

  • Liberty is 5-0 ATS as an AP ranked team all-time.

Louisville at No. 12 Clemson (-7, 52)
3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, Memorial Stadium, Clemson, South Carolina

  • 38 straight wins at home (longest active streak in FBS), but just 17-20-1 ATS over span.

  • Clemson is 5-0 ATS in last five meetings against Louisville.

  • Louisville has covered in 4 straight games overall.

  • Louisville is the largest underdog they've been all season; 5-2 ATS as underdog of 7-plus points since 2019.

Nebraska at No. 3 Michigan (-29, 51.5)
3:30 p.m. ET on ABC, Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Michigan

  • The Under is 2-6-1 in Michigan games this year, tied for the lowest Over percentage in the conference.

  • Michigan is 3-7 ATS in last 10 games as 28-plus point favorites.

  • Nebraska would be second biggest underdog since the FBS/FCS split if line holds at +29 (+30 vs Oklahoma in 2004 is the record).

  • Nebraska is 3-7 ATS in last 10 games vs. AP Top 5 ranked teams.

No. 10 Alabama (-11.5, 63.5) at No. 11 Ole Miss
3:30 p.m., Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, Mississippi

  • Alabama is 5-0 ATS in their last five games coming off a loss; the under is 7-0 in last seven games off a loss.

  • Alabama is 1-3 ATS at Ole Miss over the last 10 years.

  • Ole Miss has only covered once in the last 6 weeks (1-4-1 ATS over span).

  • Ole Miss is 1-5 ATS against AP ranked teams since the start of last season (The over is also 1-5 in these games).

  • Lane Kiffin is 2-1 ATS against Nick Saban (1-1 at Ole Miss).

Maryland at No. 14 Penn State (-10.5, 57)
3:30 p.m. ET, Beaver Stadium, University Park, Pennsylvania

  • Overs are 7-2 in PSU games this season (tied for the 5th-highest rate in FBS), but the over is only 3-2 in home games.

  • Penn State is 5-1 ATS against Maryland in last six meetings, The under is 5-1 in the same span.

  • Maryland is 2-16 ATS in last 18 games vs AP Top 15 teams (1-9 ATS in last 10).

  • Maryland is 4-11 ATS in last 15 games as a road dog of 10-plus points.

No. 22 UCF at No. 16 Tulane (-2, 51.5)
3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2, Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, Louisiana

  • Tulane is 8-1 ATS this season, best ATS record in FBS this season (4-1 ATS at home)

  • Tulane is on a five-game cover streak, tied for third-longest active streak in FBS.

  • UCF is 5-1 SU in last six meetings against Tulane, but just 1-5 ATS.

Boston College at No. 17 NC State (-19, 42)
3:30 p.m. ET on ACC Network, Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, North Carolina

  • NC State is 1-5 ATS in last six games, 1-4-1 in last six meetings against Boston College.

  • The under is 8-2 in last 10 meetings in the series.

  • Boston College is 2-7 ATS this season, tied for the third-worst cover percentage in FBS.

  • Boston College is 1-4 ATS against AP Ranked teams since the start of last season.

  • Unders are 14-10-2 this season in games with a total less than or equal to 42.

No. 1 Georgia (-16.5, 53.5) at Mississippi State
7 p.m. ET on ESPN, Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Mississippi

  • Unders are 7-2 in Georgia games this season, tied for the seventh-lowest over percentage in FBS.

  • Georgia is 10-3 ATS (7-1 ATS in last eight games) as a road favorite of 14 or more points since 2019, second best record over span (min. 5 games).

  • Mississippi State is 0-3 ATS in last 3 games and 0-6 ATS in last 6 games against AP Top 5 teams.

  • Mississippi State is one of two teams to have a perfect ATS record vs AP No. 1 teams at home over the last 10 years (min. 2 games).

No. 24 Washington at No. 8 Oregon (-13.5, O/U 70.5)
7 p.m. ET, Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon

  • Unders are 11-7 in games with 70-plus point totals this season.

  • Oregon has covered in each of the last four weeks, hasn't covered in five straight games since 2015.

  • The winner in this meeting has also covered in every reg. season game since 2000 (Oregon 16-4 SU and ATS over span).

  • Washington is 8-16 ATS against AP Top 10 teams over the last 15 years, tied for the second-worst cover percentage in such games over span (min. 20 games)..

No. 23 Kansas State at Baylor (-3, 53)
7 p.m. ET, McLane Stadium, Waco, Texas

  • Ranked underdogs vs unranked teams are 3-11 SU and are 6-8 ATS this season.

  • The over has hit in 6 straight Baylor games, the longest active streak in FBS.

  • Baylor is 0-2 SU and ATS against AP ranked opponents this season.

  • Baylor is 12-3 ATS in last 15 games as unranked team against ranked conference opponents, best ATS record over span (since 2012) min. 5 games.

No. 4 TCU at No. 18 Texas (-7, 65)
7:30 p.m. ET on ABC, DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, Texas

  • TCU is 7-3 ATS in last 10 meetings against Texas, The under is 7-3 over span as well.

  • Texas is 1-5 ATS (1-4-1 SU) as a favorite against AP Top 5 teams (only win/cover in 1984 vs Penn State).

  • TCU: 7-1-1 ATS this season, tied for second-best spread record in FBS.

  • 7 points would be largest underdog an AP Top 5 teams has been against a Non-Top 10 team since the FBS/FCS split (record is 6.5, done twice).

  • AP Top 5 teams that are underdogs to non-Top 15 teams are 4-8-1 ATS since the FBS/FCS split.

No. 15 North Carolina at Wake Forest (-3.5, 76.5)
7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2, Truist Field, Winston-Salem, North Carolina

  • Wake Forest is 10-3 ATS (0-13 SU) against AP Top 15 teams since 2015, second-best record over span (min. 10 games).

  • When these programs squared off last season, the over/under was 78, the highest total in a game involving two ACC teams in the last 15 years (ended with 113 points, 7th-most points in a game involving at least one ACC team).

  • The under is 11-4 in the last 15 games to have a total of 75-plus points.

  • The over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in this series.

No. 25 Florida State (-6.5, 51.5) at Syracuse
8 p.m. ET on ACC Network, JMA Wireless Dome, Syracuse, NY

  • The under is 5-1 in the last six Syracuse games, Under is 4-1 in last five meetings vs FSU.

  • Syracuse is 6-2 ATS in last eight games vs AP ranked opponents.

  • Florida State is 0-4 SU and ATS in last four games as an AP ranked team (last SU and ATS win was Dec. 2016 vs No. 6 Michigan).

Stanford at No. 13 Utah (-24, 53.5)
10 p.m. ET on ESPN, Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, Utah

  • Utah is 6-1-1 ATS against Stanford since 1989; Utah's best vs any team over span (first meeting since FBS/FCS split) (min. 5 games).

  • Utah is 52-35-1 ATS (.598) as a ranked team against unranked opponents in the last 20 years, 3rd-best record over span (min. 20 games).

  • Stanford is 5-15-1 ATS since the start of last season, third-worst record over span.

  • Stanford hasn't covered in any of their last six games against an AP ranked opponent (0-5-1).

Arizona at No. 9 UCLA (-19.5, 77.5)
10:30 p.m. ET, Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California

  • If line holds, Arizona-UCLA will be the highest total of any game this season (current high is 74.5 for Fordham-Ohio)

  • The under is 11-4 in the last 15 games to have a total of 75-plus points.

  • UCLA is 5-1 ATS in last 6 games and the over is 7-2 in Bruins games this year.

  • UCLA is 8-2 ATS in last 10 games vs. Arizona, their second-best ATS record vs any team over span (since 2012) (vs 5-1 ATS vs Washington).

  • UCLA is 8-2 ATS as a favorite against conference opponent since the start of last season, best record in FBS over span (min. 10 games).