Focus on ... F1's Finns
It may only be the fourth round of the season, but if Valtteri Bottas and Kimi Raikkonen want to be considered serious title threats this year they need to start staking a claim. It was perhaps expected that Bottas would struggle to get up to speed at Mercedes with such a short period of time to bed in and such a formidable teammate on the other side of the garage. His pole position in Bahrain exceeded expectations, but the race only served to back the theories that he will play a supporting role to Hamilton's title challenge this year. There's little doubting that the pace is there, but in the current battle at the front even the smallest mistakes are severely punished.
This year's Mercedes is a fast but temperamental beast; capable of securing pole position at all three opening races but running in a very narrow window of performance in the race. The Ferrari, which is not quite as quick over one lap, can exploit that weakness and the team's pit wall have done so by opting for unusual strategies that pull Mercedes out of its comfort zone. Bottas is struggling more with the W08's vices than Hamilton -- as shown by his spin in China and his lack of pace throughout the race in Bahrain -- and unless he gets on top of those issues quickly we could see even more calls for him to move over and let his teammate past. A good result in Russia could stem the tide, but ideally he needs to beat Hamilton convincingly and that is no easy task.
The Kimi conundrum is harder to analyse. Since joining Ferrari in 2014, Raikkonen hasn't been at the level he was when he returned to the sport with Lotus in 2012 and 2013. There are a number of theories surrounding that as his switch to Ferrari also correlates with the the introduction of the turbo-hybrid engine era and a switch in the construction of the Pirelli tyres midway through 2013. But even this year, with a new breed of cars that should have offered a fresh start, the Ferrari driver is off the pace. There seems to be a reluctance to adapt to the needs of the car, but he admits the slump has been going on too long.
"To be honest it has taken way too long [to get up to speed]," Raikkonen said after finishing a distant fourth in Bahrain. "It wasn't possible to get it right straight away and we still haven't, for a lot of reasons. It didn't help that in China we didn't drive in the first day of practice, because when you're going through some issues you want to get track time.
"I'm pretty happy with the car now and in qualifying, on one lap pace, it was just small things. I feel that we are doing the right things and in the race [in Bahrain], I felt the car was really good but I made a mess of the first lap, so I put myself in a difficult position. It's not the ideal way to start the race."
Right now Ferrari lead the constructors' championship by three points, but the pressure on Raikkonen will only increase if Mercedes regains the lead later in the season. One good race could be all he needs to return to his brilliant best, but with just half the points of his teammate after three races (68 to 34), Raikkonen needs a run of wins if he is to be a serious title threat ... and that doesn't seem likely.
In need of a win
As mentioned above, Bottas has been thrown in at the deep end at Mercedes and so far is just about keeping his head above water. A win in Russia would be the perfect tonic following the team orders in Bahrain and Bottas has good form in Sochi. In 2014 he was on target for pole position until the final sector when he just pushed over the limit and had to settle for third behind the two Mercedes. In 2015 he was again the best of the rest behind the Mercedes duo in qualifying and last year he was second on the grid after Hamilton's car failed to set a time in Q3. He is rapid here and with the W08 he now has a car capable of turning that pace into victory.
In need of podium
To continue on our Finnish theme, Raikkonen desperately needs a podium in Russia. Of the top five drivers in the championship, he is the only one not to score a podium at the opening three races and his absence has been noted by the Ferrari hierarchy. If Sebastian Vettel is to fight for the title, he needs a wingman to get ahead of the Mercedes drivers from time to time and Raikkonen needs to step up his game to do so.
ESPN prediction
But for all the talk of Finns, it's Hamilton who we're backing for victory. Sochi has been a Mercedes stronghold for all three Russian Grands Prix to date, and even with Ferrari in a much stronger position this year the track should still favour Mercedes. The cool conditions and smooth track surface will result in low degradation across the board with plenty of strategy options to play with. As a result, Ferrari's tactic at the opening three races of rolling the dice and watching Mercedes react will be less effective and with Hamilton in such fine form this year he is unlikely to let this one slip through his fingers.
Betting
There's not much point in placing bets on Hamilton (10/11) and Vettel (5/4) for the win, but Bottas at 15/2 or Raikkonen at 16/1 could be worth a punt. Last year Fernando Alonso took a top six finish here -- albeit with a more powerful engine -- and this year you can get odds of 16/1 for him to repeat that performance. Or perhaps you fancy a strategic bet: you can get either Ferrari at 8/1 to be the first to make a pit stop (possibly in an attempt to force Mercedes hand).
Weather
There should be plenty of sunshine in Sochi with all three days set to be dry, but temperatures are unlikely to get much above 21C. That could make getting the tyres up to temperature ahead of a qualifying lap quite challenging and it is likely to result in low levels of degradation in the race.
Tyres
Available compounds: Ultra-soft, super-soft, soft
The circuit from a tyre point of view:
Degradation levels are among the lowest seen all season: limited demands on tyres.
Generally mild weather conditions mean thermal degradation is contained as well.
Turns 2 and 13 are the heaviest braking zones, with a risk of flat-spotting tyres.
The final sector is all about traction and braking: stop-go, similar to Abu Dhabi.
Track not used extensively outside of the grand prix, so will be very 'green' at first.
Most demanding corner is Turn 3: a multi-apex left-hander a bit like Istanbul's Turn 8.
The front-right tyre is worked hardest.
Mario Isola, head of car racing: "The race follows a two-day test in Bahrain, so it will be interesting to see how the lessons learned there translate into on-track performance and tyre management in Russia. On the face of it, with Sochi being a low-severity circuit and more durable tyres this year, it should be a relatively straightforward one-stop race. However, this is the first time we are going there with the ultrasoft tyre, so the effect that it has together with the new generation of cars remains to be seen. The performance gap between the softest compounds is relatively small, so all three choices are potential race tyres in Sochi."