Remember the days when just about every team had one established closer? Yeah, those days are gone -- at least for now -- and it has made it trickier than ever for fantasy managers to know how to address the saves category.
Here are Eric Karabell, Tristan H. Cockcroft, AJ Mass, Kyle Soppe, Todd Zola and Mike Sheets to discuss their approach to drafting closers this season.
Tristan: Boy, you can't really win with this year's closer pool, just as you can't win by saying this isn't a one-size-fits-all answer either, can you? Ideally, my league mates let a specific closer slip 1-2 rounds/$2-3 beneath my valuation and that fills my saves category, but from a general perspective I'm more apt to fade saves this year than ever. The case for Josh Hader, Liam Hendriks or Aroldis Chapman is an easy one, considering the uncertainty in many bullpens, the rising number of committees and the tendency for non-contenders to sell of any meaningful late-inning piece, but when Hader is going 50th in ADP in ESPN leagues as he was the other day, I'm out on those three.
That doesn't mean I'm punting in 2021, because I don't think there's enough pitching certainty to guarantee you wins in the other four primary rotisserie categories, but I'm only going to buy skills here and hope it works out. It means I'm taking Edwin Diaz, if people don't believe; Taylor Rogers, if Alex Colome's arrival has people avoiding the lefty outright; Will Smith, if people fear the dreaded committee; Richard Rodriguez, if people are scared he'll be dealt in March; or Jake McGee, if I must get desperate in the final rounds. Leave me the skilled arms you least trust.
Todd: Holding my nose, closing my eyes and crossing my fingers. I'm more apt to roster a top tier guy in single league formats as I did in AL LABR, with Trevor Rosenthal. In mixed drafts, I won't be in the mix early, but if someone from the second tier is staring at me and there aren't any batters screaming at me, I'll take the plunge. Past that, I love the idea of pairing Matt Barnes/Adam Ottavino or Will Smith/Chris Martin. For a late option, Jake McGee appears to have the job and is set up to succeed in San Francisco.
Kyle: Maybe it's a cop-out answer, but I'm addressing the position by reading my draft room. I'm certainly not going to be the first manager to select a closer, but that doesn't mean I'll be the last to start drafting saves. I tend to chase team situation more than current role, so I'm fine with being "that guy" that looks at Kenley Jansen in the middle rounds or the Drew Pomeranz's/Will Smith's of the world a handful of rounds later. The checklist I have for my closers is simple: can your team win 90 games and is there a reasonable path to you leading them in 9th inning chances. I'll wait until value presents itself on the half dozen closers that fit this profile and try to leave my draft with two of them in addition to a late bullpen flier or two.
Mike: The 2021 closer landscape is perhaps the ugliest it's been since I started playing fantasy baseball. By my count, there are really only 14 or 15 teams where the closer situation is 100% clear. Sure, there are plenty of other ninth-inning situations where we might think we know who is going to close, but we don't really know for sure. The closer situation in Cleveland is a perfect example. Nearly everyone assumes James Karinchak is going to be the guy. After all, the 25-year-old has the elite swing-and-miss stuff to be a premiere closer, showcased by a 17.7 K/9 in 27 innings last season. However, he also has trouble throwing strikes, as he held a 5.3 BB/9 in 2020 and has already walked four batters in three innings this spring. More importantly, Karinchak hasn't actually been named the team's closer. Yet, he's currently the seventh reliever off the board in ESPN drafts. That's a situation I want to avoid. While I don't necessarily feel the need to pay the premium for a Josh Hader or Liam Hendriks, I do want to invest in at least one top-tier closer with strong skills and a clearly defined role. I'm fine taking a chance on a reliever or two in questionable situations later in the draft, but I want at least one guy I know is going to get saves.
Eric: Guessing? I'm never one to use a top-100 mixed pick in saves, and despite the lack of clarity surrounding so many teams, I'm not changing now. I'm not sure even 10 pitchers will save 30 games this season. So many questions, so many likely timeshares. Not saying I will punt saves up front, but I'd like to invest in reliable, durable arms -- Raisel Iglesias and Archie Bradley jump to mind -- but also invest in skills and presume those arms -- like Jonathan Hernandez and Giovanny Gallegos -- earn some saves, too. And if I lack saves in May, it should be easy to trade for them.
AJ: As a whole, given the new normal of "one-inning specialists from the seventh on" combined with the general lack of urgency for managers to specifically designate a closer, I'm down on relief pitchers in points leagues. While I still believe you can compete with an "ace plus eight closers" strategy in this format, it's a lot harder to pull off given the volatility of exactly who will get called on for saves. Instead, focus on a solid rotation, grab the few "sure things" (Josh Hader, Liam Hendricks) if you can and be prepared for a season of waiver wire prowling for the next hot thing in the ninth.