Change of plans! (And change of positions.)
After Carlos Correa's 13-year, $350 million agreement with the San Francisco Giants fell through, due to a reported medical concern that came up during his physical, the two-time All-Star and 2015 Rookie of the Year shortstop quickly agreed to a 12-year, $315 million contract with the New York Mets early Wednesday morning. It's a stunning turn of events and brings with it a noticeable change to his fantasy outlook.
The most obvious change will be Correa's position. The Mets have a shortstop already in Francisco Lindor, whose superior defense -- 13 Statcast Defensive Runs Saved last season and 87 over the past five seasons combined, compared to three and 50 for Correa -- assures he'll remain there for at least the foreseeable future. Correa will therefore shift to third base, à la Alex Rodriguez when he was traded to the New York Yankees following the 2003 season, and for fantasy planning, be aware that he'll need 10 games played there in 2023 before qualifying at his new spot.
The position change might matter depending upon your league type, as well as your perspective on the relative depth at either position. In rotisserie leagues last season, for example, top-10 shortstops collectively earned 15% greater Player Rater valuations than did top-10 third basemen. In points-based leagues, however, top-10 third basemen averaged 399.3 seasonal points and 2.73 points per game, compared to 340.7 and 2.46 for shortstops. Those differences are to be expected, considering third base is typically regarded more of a run-producing lineup spot than shortstop, which frequently sports speedier, more athletic players. Tuck that away, though the upshot is that a player of Correa's stature shouldn't be dramatically impacted by his long-term position.
Correa will play in a more homer-oriented environment, though he'll still play in a pitching-friendly environment in Citi Field. Over the past three seasons combined, Citi Field was 19th in terms of home runs per Statcast's park factors (96, meaning it deflated homers by 4% compared to an average venue), 25th in runs scored (92), 20th in homers (95) and 28th in runs scored (88) for right-handed hitters exclusively. This is a negative for Correa, but he derives a good share of his fantasy value from power, it's better not to see him calling San Francisco's Oracle Park, with its 27th-ranked overall home run factor (81) or 29th-ranked for righties (77), his home for the next decade-plus.
What's especially attractive for fantasy purposes with Correa is the Mets' all-in strategy. He'll presumably be the No. 2 hitter (but could also slot third or fourth, depending upon manager Buck Showalter's lineup machinations. The top of the order is loaded including leadoff man Brandon Nimmo, Lindor and probable cleanup man Pete Alonso. The Mets already averaged a fifth-best 4.77 runs per game last season, 0.35 more than the 11th-ranked Giants, and despite their pitching-friendly home might make a push towards five runs per game which was only achieved by the Los Angeles Dodgers. That'd be big news in fantasy terms, because of what it would mean for the collective group's runs scored and RBI opportunities, not to mention times turning over the lineup, meaning more plate appearances for all.
Correa's health history is his primary obstacle to fantasy success. He has appeared in more than 110 games in only three of his six full, 162-game campaigns and has been absent for 22% of his teams' games in his career. Correa won't be any less susceptible to injury in New York and that leaves us to guess whether he'll play 125, 150 or some other number of games in 2023 (and beyond).
Ultimately, Correa and his new Mets teammates should all enjoy a small bump as a result of his unexpected decision. Whereas previously he was shaping up as the potentially fourth most-appealing free agent shortstop for 2023 fantasy drafts, Correa now brings similar, if not better, value to Xander Bogaerts and he's certainly in a stronger team-support situation than Dansby Swanson, who signed with the Chicago Cubs. There's little doubt Correa is a top-eight fantasy shortstop (or third baseman) now and his upside on the Mets gives him a ceiling within the top-50 overall players.
That's assuming all goes smoothly with his physical this time around and his deal becomes official. I'd wait a few days before ordering your Correa Mets jerseys.