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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Saturday's MLB games

          Bryan Woo has 39 strikeouts and 8 walks in his first six MLB starts. Steph Chambers/Getty Images
          • ESPN Fantasy
          Jul 8, 2023, 03:35 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. Game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and how to best use the information, check out our handy primer here.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          What you need to know for Saturday's MLB games

          By Mike Sheets

          • Health has long been the issue with James Paxton (45% rostered in ESPN leagues), but he's healthy now and he's dominating. He was particularly filthy his last time out, spinning 7⅔ shutout frames against the Toronto Blue Jays at the Rogers Centre. Overall, Paxton boasts a 2.70 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP and an 11.0 K/9 rate across nine starts. He shouldn't experience any slowdown, as his matchup against the Oakland Athletics is about as favorable as it gets. After all, the A's have one of the worst offenses in baseball season, sporting an 87 wRC+ with a 24.6% strikeout rate. Paxton is an easy pickup as one of the day's top streamers.

          • It has been a mixed bag for rookie pitcher Gavin Williams (13%) since the Cleveland Guardians called him up in mid-June. While he owns a respectable 3.79 ERA over three starts, his K/9 sits at just 5.7, and the Atlanta Braves tagged him for three home runs in his last outing. That said, he fired seven shutout innings against the Kansas City Royals in his second start, and he squares off against those same Royals this weekend. Blessed with stuff that could make him an ace in the future, Williams can be started with confidence versus a K.C. lineup that ranks worst in MLB over the past 30 days with a wRC+ of 72.

          • Braxton Garrett (53%) is on some kind of run right now. The southpaw's past 10 starts have seen him produce a 2.26 ERA with 70 Ks in 55⅔ frames. The Philadelphia Phillies will present a stiff test for the 25-year-old. However, they've actually been below average against lefty pitching this season (97 wRC+), and Garrett appears to be matchup proof right now, so keep throwing him out there as long as he's rolling.

          • Opposing hurler Ranger Suarez (40%) looks like a fine streamer against the Miami Marlins, but some caution is warranted. Miami's offense has been one of the most lethal in baseball against left-handed pitching this season (120 wRC+), and the Marlins have been hitting well over the past two weeks (111 wRC+). Consider righty batters Jorge Soler (77%), Bryan De La Cruz (16%), Garrett Cooper (4%), Jon Berti (3%) and Jean Segura (6%) as under-the-radar plays.

          • A recent hot streak has seen Corey Julks (3%) slash .415/.500/.547 over his past 15 games, with a home run and five stolen bases, giving him 15 steals on the year. Although his hard-hit metrics aren't very impressive, and he has only six homers in 67 games, he's providing enough value across the board to warrant some attention in deeper fantasy leagues. Plus, Julks did pop 31 dingers at Triple-A last season, so there's at least some hope for more power.

          Starting pitcher rankings for Saturday

          Bullpen usage watch for Saturday

          By Todd Zola

          • It's been a busy, and mostly productive couple of weeks for Devin Williams as the Milwaukee Brewers All-Star closer has pitched on eight of the past 13 days, using 129 pitches to compile six saves and a win in that span. More recently, He's collected saves on two of the previous three days, throwing 40 total pitches. He has a break coming up, but since he'll be traveling to Seattle to likely appear in the Midseason Classic, Williams' respite won't be as refreshing as other closers. While some relievers may put in overtime this weekend, it's hard to envision Williams pitching today and tomorrow. Recent workload suggests getting today off, and playing it by ear on Sunday. Joel Payamps has pitched extremely well since being promoted to Williams primary setup man. Since May 7, Payamps has posted a 1.33 ERA and .85 WHIP with 33 strikeouts to only five walks in 27 innings. He's collected 14 holds, three wins and two saves in that span. Not only is he a good pickup for today, he's a sneaky stash in deeper leagues. Chances are Williams will not be dealt, but after the Brewers traded Josh Hader last season at the deadline, it doesn't hurt being proactive with the next in line.

          • With help from the ghost runner, the New York Mets scored four runs in the top of the 10th to take a 7-3 lead over the San Diego Padres. Even though David Robertson took over in the bottom of the frames with a runner at second, it was not a save situation. Robertson allowed two runs (the ghost runner's tally is considered unearned), helping the Mets secure a 7-5 win in San Diego. Robertson has now pitched on three of the past four days, albeit with a reasonable 37 pitches. Even so, despite Adam Ottavino and Brooks Raley also appearing yesterday, they both last pitched on Tuesday, so they're better candidates to pitch today in back-to-back fashion. Ottavino in particular is compelling with six saves and 10 holds.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Saturday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Saturday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Today