Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Sunday's MLB games

ESPN Fantasy

Jul 23, 2023, 03:30 PM

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. Game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and how to best use the information, check out our handy primer here.

Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

What you need to know for Sunday's MLB games

By Todd Zola

Sunday's action gets an early 12:05 p.m. ET start with the Detroit Tigers hosting the San Diego Padres. The slate finishes with the Boston Red Sox entertaining the New York Mets in the ESPN Sunday night affair. In between there are 13 afternoon contests. Unfortunately, it's not ideal for those looking to make up points via streaming pitchers. The hurlers are available, but the matchups aren't especially favorable.
For example, the top-ranked probable pitcher available in more than half of ESPN leagues is Bryan Woo (16.8% rostered). Woo entered the break with a 3.63 ERA and 1.07 WHIP to begin his career, but he struggled in his first start since teams returned, allowing six runs in 3 1/3 innings to the Minnesota Twins. Woo will be at home, but he'll face the Toronto Blue Jays. On paper, it's not a terrible matchup facing a just above league average lineup on the road facing righties, but it's tough to trust winning or losing a head-to-head matchup hoping a rookie can navigate a lineup featuring Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, George Springer and friends.
Next on the list is Taj Bradley (16.4%) who has also pitched well at times but faces a challenging lineup as the Tampa Bat Rays continue to battle the Baltimore Orioles for supremacy in the AL East. Bradley opened the second half by limiting the Texas Rangers to two runs over five frames, fanning nine. For the season, the rookie's 30.6% strikeout rate and 7.2% walk rate are excellent, but 12 homers allowed in 66 1/3 innings has inflated his ERA. Working in Bradley's favor is the game will be at home in Tropicana Field, a venue known to suppress power. Plus, the Orioles are just a tick above league average with respect to home run rate facing right-handers.
Continuing the theme of rookie pitchers tasked with a tough opponent, Los Angeles Dodgers freshman Emmet Sheehan (10.2%) is next on the list, despite drawing a Rangers lineup averaging the most runs per game in MLB. That said, regression is beginning to set in as the Rangers batting average with runners in scoring position was unsustainably high. For the last month, Texas is down to the 10th most runs per game, which is still well above average. Sheehan and the Dodgers will be at home, and the Rangers will be without Corey Seager who was placed on the IL Saturday after spraining his thumb on a slide Friday night. Consider this a "break glass in case of emergency" option.
Luis Severino (49.9%) isn't racking up strikeouts, but given the manner in which he has opened the second half, more could be on the way. Severino's velocity and spin rate were as high as they've been all season during his last outing, a six-inning effort against the Angels. However, he only fanned three. Next up is a weak Kansas City Royals lineup, so even if Severino's whiffs don't manifest today, he's still a solid option for run prevention and a possible win.
Some batters boosted by the platoon edge on Sunday include Jonny Deluca (0.1%) facing Martin Perez, Eddie Rosario (10.9%) facing Julio Teheran along with both Wilmer Flores (18.8%) and Austin Slater (0.2%) stepping in against MacKenzie Gore.

Starting pitcher rankings for Sunday

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
12.8	Alek Manoah	R	@SEA	61.9%	115	8.5	50%	5.9	2.0	6.0
12.7	Jesus Luzardo	L	COL	90.1%	-267	8	61%	5.7	2.1	6.1
12.5	Bryan Woo	R	TOR	19.9%	-135	8.5	50%	5.4	1.7	5.5
11.6	Joe Musgrove	R	@DET	93.0%	-240	8.5	62%	5.8	2.6	6.0
11.3	Aaron Nola	R	@CLE	99.0%	-145	8.5	52%	5.8	2.7	6.2
11.1	Hunter Brown	R	@OAK	58.5%	-240	8.5	59%	5.6	2.5	6.2
10.7	Taj Bradley	R	BAL	19.7%	-140	8.5	51%	5.2	2.2	5.6
10.4	Jordan Montgomery	L	@CHC	81.9%	-140	--	54%	5.5	2.4	5.3
10.3	Bailey Ober	R	CWS	61.5%	-145	8	52%	5.3	2.5	5.3
10.0	Emmet Sheehan	R	@TEX	11.7%	-120	10	63%	5.1	2.4	5.5
9.6	Mitch Keller	R	@LAA	91.6%	110	9.5	51%	5.7	2.7	5.4
9.5	Luis Severino	R	KC	49.9%	-205	9	56%	5.4	2.7	5.3
9.2	Tyler Wells	R	@TB	77.8%	118	8.5	49%	4.9	2.1	4.7
8.9	Jameson Taillon	R	STL	12.7%	118	--	46%	5.3	2.6	4.9
8.8	Bryce Elder	R	@MIL	79.3%	-170	10	56%	5.5	2.6	4.9
8.8	Tyler Anderson	L	PIT	32.2%	-130	9.5	49%	5.3	2.5	4.6
8.6	Jordan Lyles	R	@NYY	2.8%	170	9	44%	5.8	3.0	5.0
8.4	Lucas Giolito	R	@MIN	92.2%	122	8	48%	5.4	3.1	6.0
8.3	Luis Medina	R	HOU	2.1%	196	8.5	41%	5.3	2.5	5.0
8.1	Jose Ruiz	R	@CIN	0.0%	-110	11	54%	5.1	2.7	5.1
7.2	Julio Teheran	R	ATL	7.3%	143	10	44%	5.5	3.4	5.0
7.0	Xzavion Curry	R	PHI	0.8%	122	8.5	48%	4.1	1.9	3.7
6.8	MacKenzie Gore	L	SF	18.8%	100	8.5	40%	4.9	2.8	5.4
6.0	Nick Pivetta*	R	NYM	9.4%	--	--	51%	5.1	3.3	5.1
5.9	Alex Faedo	R	SD	0.4%	196	8.5	38%	4.7	2.7	4.1
5.7	Anthony DeSclafani*	R	@WSH	19.4%	-120	8.5	60%	4.6	2.9	4.0
5.6	Luke Weaver	R	ARI	1.0%	-110	11	46%	4.9	3.2	4.5
5.2	Carlos Carrasco	R	@BOS	7.2%	--	--	49%	4.8	3.2	4.7
5.1	Ty Blach	L	@MIA	0.0%	215	8	39%	3.5	1.5	2.5
4.9	Martin Perez	L	LAD	22.7%	100	10	37%	5.4	3.7	4.4

Bullpen usage watch for Sunday

By Todd Zola

It was a bit of an adventure, but Devin Williams escaped with his 25th save after nailing down the Milwaukee Brewers' 4-3 win over the Atlanta Braves. Williams fanned three but he loaded the bases with two walks and a hit, driving his pitch count to 29. Williams was working on two days of rest, so it's not a no-brainer to assume he won't come back today. Adding Joel Payamps is a viable hedge since even if he doesn't collect a save today, Payamps already has 20 holds to go along with three saves.
Alexis Diaz surrendered a ninth-inning homer to Corbin Carroll, but he and the Cincinnati Reds held on to defeat the Arizona Diamondbacks 4-2. Diaz used 19 pitches one day after he threw 10. He's been busy lately, working in five games over the past week, but he has yet to pitch on three straight days, so the safe play is to look elsewhere for points today. Lucas Sims and Buck Farmer are next in line for the Reds, but neither are reliable enough to trust, especially on the last day of the fantasy week.
David Bednar navigated around two walks to collect his 19th save last night, protecting the Pittsburgh Pirates' 3-0 win over the Los Angeles Angels. He needed 19 pitches, but since he last pitched on Wednesday, Bednar should be in play today for the series finale.
Yesterday, Emmanuel Clase collected his second save in two days. He's yet to appear on three straight days, but since he threw just seven pitches yesterday (after a reasonable 14 the prior day), there's a chance he might be used today. Trevor Stephan is the best hedge since he's likely to get a hold in the event of a close game.
Felix Bautista has stepped up for the Baltimore Orioles in their big series against the Tampa Bay Rays, working two innings on Thursday to capture the win, then recording a save yesterday, He used 15 pitches each time, which is enough to signal a day off for many relievers -- but not necessarily Bautista.

Relief Pitcher Usage Chart

This chart lists the pitchers rostered in at least 50% of ESPN leagues who have been most heavily used recently, signaling they might be unavailable today. Rst% is the player's ESPN roster percentage; the listed date is the pitcher's pitch count from the previous day; P3 is the pitcher's total pitch count from the previous three days; Rest is the pitcher's days of rest; Strk is the number of consecutive days the pitcher has worked.

Pitcher	Team	Rst%	7/22	P3	Strk
Devin Williams	MIL	95.0%	29	29	1
Alexis Diaz	CIN	86.6%	19	29	2
David Bednar	PIT	81.0%	23	23	1
Emmanuel Clase	CLE	95.6%	7	21	2
Felix Bautista	BAL	97.5%	15	30	1

Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Sunday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.

Jarren Duran (BOS, CF -- 23%) vs. Carlos Carrasco
Triston Casas (BOS, 1B -- 29%) vs. Carrasco
Billy McKinney (NYY, RF -- 0%) vs. Jordan Lyles
Adam Duvall (BOS, CF -- 24%) vs. Carrasco
Andrew McCutchen (PIT, LF -- 20%) at Tyler Anderson
Francisco Alvarez (NYM, DH -- 33%) at Brennan Bernardino
Franchy Cordero (NYY, 1B -- 0%) vs. Lyles
Wilmer Flores (SF, 2B -- 17%) at MacKenzie Gore
Andrew Benintendi (CHW, LF -- 17%) at Bailey Ober
Emmanuel Rivera (ARI, 3B -- 0%) at Luke Weaver

Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Sunday

Josh Lowe (TB, RF -- 53%) vs. Tyler Wells
Whit Merrifield (TOR, 2B -- 54%) at Bryan Woo
Brandon Lowe (TB, 2B -- 51%) vs. Wells
C.J. Cron (COL, 1B -- 55%) at Jesus Luzardo
Matt Chapman (TOR, 3B -- 83%) at Woo
Ty France (SEA, 1B -- 70%) vs. Alek Manoah
Kris Bryant (COL, LF -- 62%) at Luzardo
Ian Happ (CHC, LF -- 52%) vs. Jordan Montgomery
Josh Jung (TEX, 3B -- 67%) vs. Emmet Sheehan
Elly De La Cruz (CIN, SS -- 92%) vs. Jose Ruiz

THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Sunday

Prop of the Day

Bailey Ober, Twins, 17.5 pitching outs (-135/+105).

PROJECTION

THE BAT X sees Ober putting up 16.1 pitching outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 38.7% of the time. THE BAT X believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $25.73.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

Target Field has the fifth-highest average fence height in the league.
Ober is an extreme flyball pitcher (41. FB% according to THE BAT X) and is fortunate enough to be pitching today in the No. 22 HR venue in the majors.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

It may be smart to expect stronger performances for the White Sox offense in future games, considering that THE BAT X views them as them as the unluckiest offense in the majors this year.
John Libka, expected to be behind the plate in this game, profiles as a hitter's umpire.
Target Field projects as the No. 10 stadium in the league for walks, per THE BAT X.
High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 87 degrees.