Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Saturday's MLB games

Todd Zola, FantasyApr 6, 2024, 03:21 PM
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- Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
- Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: This file has been updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

Pocket Aces

All 30 teams are in action on Saturday, with the festivities beginning at 1:10 PM ET in Motown with the Detroit Tigers hosting the Oakland Athletics. There are seven matinees with eight games contested under the lights with the Los Angeles Angels hosting the Boston Red Sox at 9:38 PM to wrap up the slate.

We're barely a week into the season and pitching matchups are already off kilter. But then, it usually doesn't take long before aces square off with back-end starters. Saturday's slate features 16 of the 30 probable starters rostered in fewer than 10% of ESPN leagues, along with a few elite arms.

Kevin Gausman tops the rankings, edging out Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Gausman debuted earlier this week, but he was on a pitch count and only lasted 4 1/3 innings. They were effective as he limited the Houston Astros to one run on two hits while fanning six with no walks. Gausman threw 69 pitches, so approaching 80 tosses on the road against the New York Yankees is within reason. It will be chilly in the Bronx for this evening affair, so even though Gausman will be challenged, it's safe to trust him for fantasy purposes.

Yamamoto rebounded from his Korea Series struggle with five frames of shutout ball against the St. Louis Cardinals in his first at Dodgers Stadium. The Los Angeles Dodgers continue road series against the Chicago Cubs in Wrigley Field where the gametime temperature is forecast to be in the mid-40s, another pitcher-friendly scenario.

What you may have missed on Friday

Atlanta Braves ace Spencer Strider managed only four innings last night, giving up five earned runs on seven hits to the Arizona Diamondbacks. He fanned four with three walks. After the game, it was reported that Strider experienced elbow discomfort during the outing and is scheduled for an MRI today.
Trevor Story left the game last night after laying out for a grounder and landing on his left shoulder. He walked off the field in obvious pain. Boston Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Story would undergo an MRI today. · Switching to some good news regarding injuries, both Brendan Donovan and Willson Contreras are back in the lineup for the St. Louis Cardinals today.
Will Smith's struggles continued last night. The Kansas City Royals held a 2-1 lead over the Chicago White Sox when Smith was asked to secure the save in the top of the ninth. He struck out Yoan Moncada, but after Luis Robert Jr. doubled and Kevin Pillar walked, James McArthur replaced Smith. McArthur induced Andrew Vaughn to ground into a 6-4-3 game-ending double play to capture his first save, and perhaps the closer role.
Brady Singer didn't factor into the decision, but the Royals starter was effective again. Over his first two starts, Singer has fanned 14 in 13 1/3 innings, walking just two with a .68 ERA and .53 WHIP. The league is full of starters with a pair of solid efforts, but Singer bears tracking because he heeded the advice of his coaching staff and is using more four-seamers and sweepers than last season. His next outing is slated to be a home date with the Houston Astros, so we'll have a better feel if Singer's tune has changed this season.
Jordan Hicks is another hurler with two encouraging efforts to begin the season. The San Francisco Giants signed Hicks and transitioned him back to the rotation. He's now punched out 11 over his first 12 frames, issuing just one free pass on route to a .75 ERA and .75 WHIP. His next start lines up to be a favorable home affair with the Washington Nationals.

Everything you need to know for Saturday

Ranger Suarez (11.6% rostered in ESPN leagues) checks in as the day's stop streaming option. The Philadelphia Phillies visit the Washington Nationals who will counter with Jake Irvin. Suarez fanned seven with just one walk over five frames in his first start, but he also surrendered a homer and three earned runs to the Atlanta Braves. Considering the opposition, Suarez has begun the season in encouraging fashion. The lefty will face a much less daunting lineup in his second effort while his teammates should provide run support against Irvin, who ranks as the first lowest pitcher on the ledger.
Steven Matz (1.5%) is the next highest rankings streaming candidate, but this feels like a trap game. Even though they lost the Thursday opener, the Miami Marlins hit three homers off Lance Lynn, with Josh Burger clubbing a pair while Josh Bell also sent deep. Since 2022, the right-handed Burger has posted a .913 OPS facing lefties. Meanwhile, the switch-hitting Bell's .819 OPS versus southpaws in the same time frame bests his .736 mark facing righties. Burger and Bell make for a sneaky mini stack in DFS, not to mention solid daily pickups.

Saturday is the ideal elixir for Kenta Maeda (36.8%). Maeda disappointed in his 2024 debut, yielding six earned runs on seven hits (with three homers) to the Chicago White Sox in what was supposed to be a favorable matchup. Last season, streaming against the Oakland Athletics was a common ploy as their lineup posted the second lowest wOBA in the league. Picking on the Athletics offense could generate even better results this year, look for Maeda to rebound at home.
Last season, the San Francisco Giants threw more breaking balls than any staff in the league. Their pitching coach, Andrew Bailey, is now with the Boston Red Sox in the same capacity. The Red Sox aren't leading the league, but they are throwing a higher percentage of breaking balls, helping them pace the league in ERA. Sure, it's helped that the club has opened the year on the west coast in three pitching parks. We'll worry about regression when the Red Sox finally play in Fenway Park. On Saturday, Garrett Whitlock (25.2%) faces the Los Angeles Angels in Anaheim. Whitlock opened the season by punching out eight Seattle Mariners without issuing a walk over five innings. The Angels have struck out the eighth most in the early going, setting up Whitlock for another dominant outing.
Betting Tip of the Day: Splits facing left-handed pitching are sketchy more than halfway through the season, let alone after one week of play, so taking the under on Steven Matz 4.5 strikeouts (+210) is more of an early season play where pitchers don't go as deep into games as it is the Miami Marlins ability to handle left-handed pitching. However, as mentioned earlier, on paper, the meat of the Marlins lineup has historical success facing lefties.

It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

Starting pitcher rankings for Saturday

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
11.1	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	R	@CHC	99.2%	--	--	59%	6.1	2.6	5.9
11.1	Kevin Gausman	R	@NYY	99.3%	--	--	49%	5.7	2.6	6.6
11.0	Ranger Suarez	L	@WSH	18.8%	--	--	61%	5.9	2.5	4.9
9.9	Max Fried	L	ARI	97.9%	--	--	60%	5.4	2.4	5.2
9.6	Reid Detmers	L	BOS	71.9%	--	--	49%	5.3	2.3	5.5
9.5	Michael Wacha	R	CWS	11.9%	--	--	61%	5.4	2.6	4.9
9.4	Joe Ryan	R	CLE	96.4%	--	--	56%	5.4	2.7	5.4
9.2	Bryce Miller	R	@MIL	67.3%	--	--	46%	5.3	2.6	5.1
9.1	DL Hall	L	SEA	6.1%	--	--	54%	4.7	2.2	5.3
9.0	Steven Matz	L	MIA	3.6%	--	--	55%	5.2	2.4	4.9
9.0	Kenta Maeda	R	OAK	38.8%	--	--	55%	5.0	2.6	5.3
8.7	Michael King	R	@SF	71.8%	--	--	56%	4.7	2.0	5.0
8.6	Garrett Whitlock	R	@LAA	34.5%	--	--	51%	4.7	2.3	4.9
8.3	Clarke Schmidt	R	TOR	13.4%	--	--	51%	5.1	2.5	4.6
8.1	Luis Severino	R	@CIN	10.2%	--	--	51%	5.1	2.9	5.6
8.0	Nick Martinez	R	NYM	4.0%	--	--	49%	4.8	2.4	4.8
7.9	Tyler Wells	R	@PIT	14.7%	--	--	50%	4.8	2.3	4.5
7.9	Brandon Pfaadt	R	@ATL	30.3%	--	--	40%	5.2	3.0	5.3
7.8	Trevor Rogers	L	@STL	3.2%	--	--	45%	5.0	2.4	4.7
7.7	Keaton Winn	R	SD	1.6%	--	--	44%	5.0	2.5	4.6
7.6	Bailey Falter	L	BAL	0.2%	--	--	50%	4.7	2.2	3.8
7.1	Paul Blackburn	R	@DET	8.1%	--	--	45%	5.2	2.8	4.6
7.1	Jordan Wicks	L	LAD	3.8%	--	--	41%	4.8	2.5	4.5
6.8	Jon Gray	R	HOU	28.3%	--	--	49%	5.0	3.0	4.8
6.7	J.P. France	R	@TEX	2.4%	--	--	51%	5.5	3.3	4.7
6.2	Jake Irvin	R	PHI	0.5%	--	--	39%	5.1	3.0	4.6
5.2	Carlos Carrasco	R	@MIN	1.2%	--	--	44%	4.7	3.1	4.6
3.9	Chris Flexen	R	@KC	0.3%	--	--	39%	5.1	3.5	3.8
2.1	Tyler Alexander	L	@COL	0.3%	--	--	54%	4.3	3.9	3.8
1.9	Ryan Feltner	R	TB	0.1%	--	--	46%	4.5	4.0	4.2

Reliever report

To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Saturday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

Brendan Rodgers (COL, 2B -- 3%) vs. Tyler Alexander
Kris Bryant (COL, RF -- 12%) vs. Alexander
Maikel Garcia (KC, 3B -- 23%) vs. Chris Flexen
Brandon Lowe (TB, 2B -- 9%) at Ryan Feltner
Charlie Blackmon (COL, RF -- 10%) vs. Alexander
Nelson Velazquez (KC, RF -- 3%) vs. Flexen
Richie Palacios (TB, LF -- 0%) at Feltner
Harold Ramirez (TB, DH -- 1%) at Feltner
Max Kepler (MIN, RF -- 12%) vs. Carlos Carrasco
Elias Diaz (COL, C -- 4%) vs. Alexander

Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Saturday

Christopher Morel (CHC, CF -- 50%) vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Gabriel Moreno (ARI, C -- 81%) at Max Fried
Anthony Volpe (NYY, SS -- 65%) vs. Kevin Gausman
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (MIA, CF -- 68%) at Steven Matz
Dansby Swanson (CHC, SS -- 84%) vs. Yamamoto
Ian Happ (CHC, LF -- 84%) vs. Yamamoto
Luis Campusano (SD, C -- 56%) at Keaton Winn
Teoscar Hernandez (LAD, RF -- 81%) at Jordan Wicks
Max Muncy (LAD, 3B -- 83%) at Wicks
Corbin Carroll (ARI, LF -- 100%) at Fried