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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Saturday's MLB games

          Aaron Civale gets a great matchup against the lowly White Sox. Jim McIsaac/Getty Images
          • Todd Zola, FantasyApr 27, 2024, 05:00 PM
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          South of the border

          Saturday marks the first game of the 2024 Mexico City Series, this year featuring the Colorado Rockies and Houston Astros. Like last year, the games will be at Alfredo Harp Helú Stadium, which plays even more hitter-friendly than Coors Field. In the opener of the 2023 Mexico City Series, the San Diego Padres outslugged the San Francisco Giants 16-11. The finale was much lower scoring with the Padres also taking the finale 6-4.

          The Rockies will serve as the host with Cal Quantrill throwing the first pitch at 6:05 p.m. ET. The Astros will counter with Ronel Blanco. Considering the extremely favorable hitting venue, and the quality of both lineups, neither starter should be active for fantasy purposes. Most of the Astros batters are rostered in over half of ESPN leagues. Jeremy Pena is an exception as he's available in 44.8%. Pena is not a fly ball hitter, but he's striking out at a career low 15.1% clip and much like Coors Field, you want to put the ball in play in Alfredo Harp Helú Stadium.

          The Rockies have several hitters readily available. Someone to watch is recently recalled Hunter Goodman (1.1% rostered in ESPN leagues). He went deep on Thursday after clubbing homers for Triple-A Albuquerque. While that's impressive, keep in mind Goodman's home park when in the minors plays like where he'll be this weekend.

          Everything else you need to know for Saturday

          • Saturday's first game is a bit later than usual with a 3:07 p.m. ET start. It also features the marquee pitching matchup of the day with Yusei Kikuchi and the Toronto Blue Jays hosting Tyler Glasnow and the Los Angeles Dodgers.

          • The rule of thumb is calling out favorable starting pitchers with a rostership under 50%. With Aaron Civale barely over at 51.5%, and the Tampa Bay Rays visiting the Chicago White Sox, an exception is in order. Civale is coming off a rough game in Yankee Stadium where he walked five and allowed eight hits in 4 2/3 innings, helping the New York Yankees score five runs. However, that's over half of what the White Sox average per game. Civale's strikeout rate increased last season after he was dealt to the Rays. He's maintained an elevated pace with a career-high 26.7% mark.

          • Mitchell Parker's first two MLB starts came against the Dodgers on the road, and at home against the Houston Astros. On paper, it doesn't get more difficult, but the 24-year old southpaw posted a 1.50 ERA and 0.58 WHIP with 12 strikeouts and no walks in 12 innings. Even facing a slumping Astros lineup, that's impressive. The Washington Nationals are in South Beach for a date with the Miami Marlins, rendering Parker (14.3% rostered) one of the top streamers on the card. The hosts are averaging the third fewest runs per game in MLB.

          • Parker will be opposed by Edward Cabrera. Especially with Jesus Luzardo recently placed on the IL with elbow tightness, the Marlins need Cabrera (24.6% rostered) to continue his solid start to the season. In his first two outings, Cabrera has fanned 17 with a palatable four walks over 11 stanzas. The Nationals are averaging the fifth fewest runs in the league, landing Cabrera as a candidate for a spot start in what portends to be a low-scoring affair.

          • Betting tip of the day: I expect a low-scoring game in South Beach with Edward Cabrera and the Miami Marlins hosting Mitchell Parker and Washington Nationals. I was hoping for a little higher line, or better odds, but I'll take under 7.5 runs (E). Backing the under may often be the smart play, but it's more fun rooting for the over. Let's have some fun today and put some juice on the Mexico City Series (Houston Astros vs. Colorado Rockies) and take over 16.5 runs (E).

          It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

          Starting pitcher rankings for Saturday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Saturday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Saturday