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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Friday's MLB games

          Ronel Blanco had a great April for an Astros team that struggled mightily during the first month. G Fiume/Getty Images
          • Tristan H. Cockcroft
          May 3, 2024, 03:27 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Unstoppable force, meet immoveable object

          The Minnesota Twins, widely regarded the favorites to win the American League Central division entering the year, got off to a sluggish start, in part because of their schedule. That included being swept over three games by the AL East-leading Baltimore Orioles, and losing two of three to the National League West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers, as the Twins got off to a 7-13 start.

          Since then, the Twins have been by far the game's hottest team, winners of 10 straight games while averaging 7.60 runs per game, more than 1½ runs greater than the next-closest team. Their roster has also been reinforced by the returns from the injured list of Max Kepler (April 22), Carlos Correa (April 29) and Jhoan Duran (April 30).

          Unfortunately for their lineup, however, the Twins begin a three-game weekend series against the Boston Red Sox on Friday. The Red Sox, for those who missed it, have gotten a major league-leading 2.03 ERA from their starters, and they're scheduled to have one of their best-performing, Tanner Houck, on the mound. (Note that it's entirely possible that they could slot in Chase Anderson and buy Houck a fifth day's rest.) Houck is 10th among pitchers in WAR (1.4), first in FIP (1.99) and fifth in fantasy points per start (18.5). He also owns the year's best single-game point total (35, on April 17).

          The decision on Houck versus Anderson would swing things significantly in the Twins' direction -- the projections would have Anderson scoring 5.1 fewer fantasy points and Twins hitters would go from a five to a seven on a 1-10 hitter grading scale (10 being best for offense) -- but Houck might capitalize upon one specific Twins matchups-based advantage, that being that they're much more potent against left- than right-handed pitchers. To date, the Twins' team wOBA is 32 points higher and they've struck out 2.7% less often against lefties, and the projections say that, going forward, they should have a 16-point wOBA split but a wider strikeout rate gap (4.6%).

          It's nevertheless a test for both teams, for Houck, more supporting evidence that his hot start is for real, and for the Twins, that they were mere slow-starters who can compete with the league's best, rather than a team that plays more to the opponent.

          What you may have missed on Thursday

          By Todd Zola

          • Nathan Eovaldi left yesterday's contest with one out in the sixth inning after tweaking his groin. He still captured the win in the Texas Rangers 6-0 win over the Washington Nationals. Eovaldi fanned eight with only two walks and two hits allowed. He'll have an MRI taken today to determine the extent of the injury.

          • Evan Carter was in the lineup for the Rangers, despite facing Mitchell Parker, a left-hander. After last night, only 18 of his 113 plate appearances this season have come against southpaw pitching. He's sporting a low .347 OPS without the platoon advantage, as opposed to a productive .832 mark facing right-handers. Carter is still just 21-years-old, and the club is confident he'll develop into a full-time player, but for now manager Bruce Bochy will selectively choose when he deploys Carter against a lefty.

          • Jon Singleton started at first base in yesterday's Houston Astros 8-2 win over the Cleveland Guardians. This was the first time the Astros faced a left-handed starter since Jose Abreu voluntarily accepted an option to the club's Florida Complex League affiliate. The lefty swinging Singleton was 1-for-2 with an infield hit against southpaw Logan Allen before taking righty reliever Nick Sandlin deep with a two-run homer. Newly promoted Joey Loperfido was on the bench with Mauricio Dubon handling left field, suggesting the rookie could be in a platoon, albeit on the busier side.

          • The Chicago Cubs stole six bases yesterday, albeit in a losing effort as the New York Mets prevailed 7-6 in 11 innings. The Mets have allowed a league-high 42 steals as their backstops have only one caught stealing on the season. The Tampa Bay Rays are hosting the Mets in a three-game interleague set. They're sixth in MLB with 32 steals, so look for the Rays to pad their total this weekend.

          Everything else you need to know for Friday

          • The Red Sox are likely to activate Vaughn Grissom (groin) to make his season debut on Friday, after his return was delayed by a few days due to the flu. For fantasy, Grissom is better left to benches until he demonstrates in games that he has his timing down and is closer to the player he was in his first 25 big-league contests than since. It's the defensive question that always rings loudly with the Red Sox, as they have minus-6 Defensive Runs Saved from their infield but nine DRS from their outfield thus far, and Grissom isn't expected to significantly upgrade them in that department. It's something to monitor, and tuck away when evaluating Red Sox pitchers. Historically, Houck and Brayan Bello have been more ground ball-oriented, while Kutter Crawford and Nick Pivetta have more of a fly ball leaning.

          • With one more out recorded in his most recent start -- and that outing was in Mexico City's extreme hitters' environment -- the Houston Astros' Ronel Blanco would have five consecutive quality starts to open his 2024, which included 14⅔ no-hit innings from its beginning. Blanco's heavier changeup usage (31.6%, up from 9.0%) has had a lot to do with it, and that gives him an advantage against a Mariners team with a 35.4% whiff rate against the pitch, and fourth-worst 28.2% against all offerings.

          • Stack Toronto Blue Jays against Washington Nationals left-handed Patrick Corbin, who has been the least effective regular starter in the league thus far and hasn't had an ERA beneath five for the season since 2020. Several Blue Jays regular righties are out there in more than 45% of ESPN leagues, including Justin Turner and Danny Jansen. Jansen has, since the beginning of last season, started 24 of 26 Yusei Kikuchi's outings that were while he was on the active roster, so there's a high probability he'll get this assignment as well.

          • Additional stacks, in a day with a fair amount of opportunities for offense, include the St. Louis Cardinals against the Chicago White Sox's Brad Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates against the Colorado Rockies' Cal Quantrill and Oakland Athletics against the Miami Marlins' Ryan Weathers. Red-hot Tyler Nevin, who has settled in as the Athletics' No. 2 hitter recently, is a noted lefty masher with career .278/.366/.500 rates and seven of his nine homers against that side.

          • Though Slade Cecconi has back-to-back quality starts while filling in for the injured Merrill Kelly, the projections advise a degree of caution. Cecconi's 17th-percentile whiff rate (20.0%) doesn't back up his strikeout success thus far, and he's a noted fly baller (33.9% big-league rate thus far), a steep-downside combination. The San Diego Padres, an above-average, contact-oriented offense, could get to him.

          • Betting tip of the day: Dylan Cease is coming off his worst start of 2024, and his San Diego Padres have dropped nine of their last 14 games, which might explain how their Friday odds in a road game against the Arizona Diamondbacks are so modest. The projections, however, call this a misread, as Cease OVER 6 ½ strikeouts -115, Padres -105 on the Money Line and Padres +160 on the run line of 1 ½, in that order of preference, all stand out. A big reason for this is the Diamondbacks' extreme platoon split: They have a team wOBA 81 points lower and strikeout rate 3.5% higher against righties than lefties thus far.

          It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

          Starting pitcher rankings for Friday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Friday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Friday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Today