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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Friday

          Garrett Crochet's breakout season has opened eyes. AP Photo/Paul Beaty
          • Tristan H. Cockcroft
          Jul 12, 2024, 01:00 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Don't fear an early hook

          Garrett Crochet's breakthrough 2024 has been the talk of the fantasy baseball world, but as the summer days progress, the chances only increase that he'll either face some sort of workload limitation, or perhaps be traded by the Chicago White Sox. For those interested in the long-term ramifications of either factor, my column last week more closely examined Crochet's (and others') rest-of-year outlook.

          For Friday, at least, Crochet appears to be on a regular pattern for his home matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates, one of the more favorable matchups for a left-handed pitcher. He'll be working on five days' rest, and the opposing Pirates have the fourth-worst team wOBA against lefties in the past three weeks, while the projections grade them one of the top-10 matchups for strikeouts for lefty pitchers.

          It should come as no surprise, therefore, that Crochet earns the day's greatest projected fantasy point total, though that could come with a hint of related workload concern. If his matchup is as soft as it is, and he's to have a few pitches spared for a possible All-Star Game appearance -- he was named to the team -- might the White Sox's widely reported plan to manage his workload result in a somewhat lighter load for this particular game? Though there's no formal announcement of it, nor should fantasy managers plan under the assumption that some sort of five-inning, 75 pitch outing is due, it's a game to monitor as we read the proverbial tea leaves of the White Sox's plan.

          Crochet's most recent start might've been one of his least impressive this season, his five fantasy points tied for his third-worst output of 2024, but he scored 18-plus in seven of his nine starts prior to that. Additionally, two of his best single-start performances in terms of average fastball velocity came in his past three outings (98.3 mph on July 6, 98.0 on June 24). Keep him in there for this one.

          What you missed on Thursday

          • Chicago Cubs OF Cody Bellinger was placed on the 10-day injured list when imaging confirmed he fractured a finger after being hit in the hand by a pitch on Wednesday night. Currently, there is no timetable for Bellinger's return. The club recalled Alexander Canario to take Bellinger's roster spot. Even though he's struggling with the bat, OF Pete Crow-Armstrong could see more action against left-handed pitching, at least until OF Mike Tauchman returns from a Grade 2 groin strain. Tauchman has been sidelined since mid-June. Nothing has been reported, but Tauchman was aiming to resume baseball activities when teams return from the break.

          • The Toronto Blue Jays played shorthanded last night with SS Bo Bichette (calf) and OF Daulton Varsho (knee) both out after being removed early from Wednesday night's contest. Their availability for tonight's road date with the Arizona Diamondbacks is unclear. Yesterday, the Blue Jays placed OF Kevin Kiermaier on waivers. Kiermaier played last night and is expected to play tonight. He's eligible to stay with the club until he's claimed, or outrighted off the roster. Assuming Kiermaier eventually is no longer part of the team, Varsho should take over as the everyday centerfielder with OF Davis Schneider seeing more action in left field.

          • The Oakland Athletics placed 1B Tyler Soderstrom on the 10-day injured list with a left wrist bone bruise. The club recalled 1B Seth Brown from Triple-A Las Vegas to fill the roster spot. Brown was demoted in mid-June, but he posted a .403/.416/.736 line with the Aviators. Brown is likely to serve as the left-handed portion of a first base platoon. The Athletics announced that SP Hogan Harris will return from the paternity list today and start tonight's road affair with the Philadelphia Phillies.

          • Los Angeles Angels OF Jo Adell missed his second straight game with an illness. Reportedly, Adell is dealing with the same virus that sidelined teammate Brandin Drury for 11 days. While Adell is out, OF Kevin Pillar should garner more action.

          • Houston Astros OF Yordan Alvarez missed last night's game with a tight right hip. Alvarez was removed from Wednesday's game early. His availability for tonight's home matchup with the Texas Rangers is up in the air.

          Everything else you need to know for Friday

          • Fantasy baseball's top-scoring pitcher -- 31 points and seven ranking spots ahead of the aforementioned Crochet -- draws one of his stiffer matchups tests, as Detroit Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal faces the Los Angeles Dodgers at home. It'll be the eighth consecutive start he makes in which his matchup was league-average at best, and frankly, most of his have ranked among the top-10 most challenging for an opposing pitcher. During that time, Skubal has three wins, five quality starts, a 2.93 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 29.4% strikeout rate, numbers that speak volumes about his otherworldly talent and eases any worry about this particular matchup. Imagine what he might do when he hits the softer stages of his remaining schedule?

          • Gerrit Cole's struggles since his return from an elbow injury has run parallel to his New York Yankees' overall funk, as he has a 6.75 ERA while failing to complete five innings in three of his four starts thus far, during which time the Yankees are 5-14. That's not to place the blame for the Yankees' problems squarely upon the shoulders of their ace, but Cole hasn't offered much reason yet to believe that he's close to his prior tops-at-his-position ability, and the team's diminished support provided to him during his outings (middling 4.35 team bullpen ERA since his activation) isn't helping matters. The right-handed ace now faces the rival Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards, one of the toughest matchups these days and one that deepens the downside involved. Nevertheless, Cole is a tough one to bench due to his immense talent, as well as the fact that he has improved his fastball velocity in each of his four starts.

          • Speaking of struggling starters, Philadelphia Phillies lefty Ranger Suarez, at one point the top-scoring fantasy starter, has surrendered at least four runs in each of his past three starts, and 15 total (13 of them earned) in 15 2/3 innings during that time. A Friday matchup at home against the Oakland Athletics might appear to be a soft landing point for him, but the Athletics have scored five or more runs in six of eight games and 55 total in the month, and the game is in the much more hitting-oriented ballpark of the two teams' homes. Suarez remains a generally worthwhile fantasy starter, but going forward he seems to be more of the above-average starter he has been in the past rather than automatic, every-start option. Consider this matchup a "go," considering the Athletics' rebuilder status, but don't get carried away with your expectations, either.

          • The St. Louis Cardinals, who have gone from seven games under .500 on May 15 to four games over today, could continue their climb up the National League Central standings in a hitting-friendly matchup against opposing Chicago Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks. Cardinals No. 2 hitter Alec Burleson, available in more than 60% of ESPN leagues, is a .283/.323/.531 hitter with 10 home runs in 37 games since the beginning of June and is well worth the pickup and start.

          • The Milwaukee Brewers also match up nicely against what will be a spot starter for the Washington Nationals. Rookie Jackson Chourio has resumed making regular starts and has even led off for the Brewers in each of their past four games, in large part because he is a .340/.397/.547 hitter with two home runs in his past 15 contests. Pick him up if you're in any of the near-75% of ESPN leagues in which he remains available.

          • Betting tip of the day: Joe Ryan never seems to get enough credit, despite boasting a 3.04 ERA and 27.0% strikeout rate in his past nine starts and the 12th-most fantasy points among starting pitchers for the season. The oddsmakers seem to fall in that same class, as his Minnesota Twins look like a great pick at -135 on the Money Line.

          It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

          Starting pitcher rankings for Friday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Friday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Friday

          The BAT X's Best Stacks for Friday