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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Saturday

          With limited streaming options available Saturday, Washington's DJ Herz is worth a look. Rafael Suanes/USA TODAY Sports
          • Todd Zola, FantasyAug 3, 2024, 03:30 PM
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication

          Herz so good

          The Washington Nationals farm system may be focusing on position players, but this season has featured the emergence of a trio of starting pitchers to complement MacKenzie Gore. The continuing struggles and health woes of SP Josiah Gray have brightened the spotlight on Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz.

          Herz's surface stats are not impressive, but things look different under the hood. His 4.79 ERA is over a run above his 3.46 xFIP and 3.28 SIERA. The culprits have been a bloated .321 BABIP and 17.0% home run-per-fly ball mark. Granted, in cases like this, there is a combination of bad luck and bad pitching, but at the very least, Herz has pitched better than his 4.79 ERA suggests.

          Most notably, through nine starts covering 41 1/3 innings, Herz sports a 29.3% strikeout rate and 6.6% walk rate, both of which are much better than the league average. Putting it in perspective, Herz's 22.7% K-BB% would rank eighth among qualified starters. Granted, it isn't a sure thing that Herz maintains those levels as the innings mount, but he's displaying encouraging skills.

          On Saturday, the 23-year-old southpaw has a home date against the Milwaukee Brewers. The visitors don't fan much, but away from home, they tote the sixth-lowest wOBA and 10th-poorest home run rate on the road facing left-handers. Considering the dearth of streaming options on Saturday's docket, Herz (1.8% rostered in ESPN leagues) warrants consideration.

          What you may have missed on Friday

          • A late afternoon rotation switch proved prescient for SP Blake Snell and the San Francisco Giants. Snell was initially slated to start today with SP Kyle Harrison being last night's original starter. However, a few hours before the game, Giants manager decided to flip-flop the lefties, giving Harrison extra rest after hurling a career-high 106 pitches in his last outing. Snell proceeded to not only throw a no-hitter against the Cincinnati Reds, but it was the first time he ever pitched in the ninth inning.

          • Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts indicated the club expects 1B Freddie Freeman to miss the rest of the weekend set with the Oakland Athletics as Freeman continues attending to family business. The Dodgers also announced the SP Walker Buehler will make another rehab start with Triple-A Oklahoma City before returning to the big league rotation. In addition, SP Bobby Miller was scratched from his Friday start with Triple-A Oklahoma City with adductor tightness. Miller continues to experience control issues as he tries to work back to the major league rotation.

          • After missing Thursday's game with a lingering wrist issue, Los Angeles Angels 2B Luis Rengifo started last night, but was removed after striking out in his only two at bats. It wouldn't be surprising if the club took the cautious route with Rengifo, but for now he's considered day-to-day.

          • The Texas Rangers placed SP Max Scherzer on the 15-day IL with right shoulder fatigue. It's unclear whether Scherzer will require more than the minimum stay. Scherzer's absence further strains a starting rotation already missing Jon Gray, though SP Tyler Mahle could be ready to make his Rangers debut after tossing 74 pitches in a rehab outing last Wednesday.

          • Toronto Blue Jays C Alejandro Kirk missed his second straight game after being hit on the elbow by a pitch on Wednesday. The club did not call up another catcher, suggesting Kirk, or former catcher OF Daulton Varsho could have played in an emergency. Backup C Brian Serven picked up his second straight start last night.

          • Arizona Diamondbacks skipper Torey Lovullo reported that RP Paul Sewald has been relieved of closing responsibilities. Despite stringing together five consecutive scoreless appearances in the middle of the month Sewald struggled early and late, finishing July with a 10.80 ERA and 2.20 WHIP for the month. Lovullo did not name a replacement. Recently acquired RP A.J. Puk, RP Kevin Ginkel and RP Ryan Thompson are the primary options for saves.

          Everything else you need to know for Saturday

          • Saturday's action commences at 1:05 p.m. ET in the Bronx with the New York Yankees hosting the Toronto Blue Jays. Most of the action is under the lights. The top-10 ranked probable starters are all rostered in at least 74% of ESPN leagues, rendering the streaming landscape relatively thin.

          • The highest ranked spot starter candidate is Chicago Cubs SP Jameson Taillon (25.5% rostered in ESPN leagues) at Wrigley Field against the St. Louis Cardinals. When to use Taillon has mostly been a fool's errand. He's usually around the plate, but he doesn't miss many bats. His fate is left to the whims of batted ball fortune. Sometimes the contact nestles in opposing leather, other times he's generous with bleacher souvenirs. The Cardinals offense is above average facing righties, but they also fan at an above average clip. Taillon is best suited for those needing a weekend boost in head-to-head formats.

          • Ranked just below Taillon is one of the season's biggest disappointments thus far, as Arizona Diamondbacks SP Jordan Montgomery (46.3% rostered) is slated to square off with the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. We're well beyond the point where Montgomery's struggles can be attributed to his late signing and delayed 2024 debut, though that could have fueled the health issues the lefty has experienced this season. In his two post-break outings, Montgomery punched out just three hitters in nine frames. In his last effort, he yielded six earned runs in only four innings. On paper, facing the Pirates is a favorable matchup, as they strike out at the fourth-highest rate when facing left-handers, helping the club to the 13th-lowest wOBA against lefties. Fear of missing out may cloud judgement. I'd probably use Montgomery in leagues without an innings or games started limit.

          • Another matchup looking good on paper is San Diego Padres SP Martin Perez (2.5%) facing the Colorado Rockies at pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Perez did not pitch well for the Pirates, posting a 5.20 ERA and 1.65 WHIP with a pedestrian 63 strikeouts in 83 frames. However, he is a veteran with postseason experience. The Padres hope that moving to a team with playoff aspirations elevates Perez's performance over the final two months. In addition, the Padres have assembled an uber-bullpen, so Perez can go all out for around five frames, then pass the baton. Historically, the Rockies have trouble on the road facing left-handers, rendering Perez as an intriguing streaming option.

          • Like Perez, Kansas City Royals SP Michael Lorenzen (7.7%) will make his first start since being acquired at the trade deadline Saturday at Comerica Park. The Royals opted to demote SP Alec Marsh to Triple-A Omaha and insert Lorenzen into their rotation. The right-hander will face former teammates, as he spent part of last season toiling for the Detroit Tigers. Lorenzen will face a Tigers lineup sporting the fifth-worst wOBA with a righty on the hill.

          • Betting Tip of the Day: Baltimore Orioles SS Gunnar Henderson has his modest eight-game hitting streak snapped last night. Heading into the contest, Henderson compiled at least three Total Hits + Runs + RBIs in his previous five games. Henderson should get back on track today with a matchup against Cleveland Guardians rookie SP Joey Cantillo. I'm taking Henderson for the over on 2.5 Total Hits + Runs + RBIs (+125).

          Starting pitcher rankings for Saturday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Saturday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Saturday

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