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          Fantasy baseball advice for Friday: Start Bryce Miller

          Bryce Miller has come up big in this, his second MLB season. Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images
          • Todd Zola, FantasySep 6, 2024, 03:40 PM
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET , and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Miller's Time

          The Seattle Mariners are one of three teams featuring four pitchers with at least 25 starts. Combined, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo have started 130 of the club's 140 games (92.9%). The worst ERA among quintet is a still impressive 3.61, courtesy of Kirby. Castillo sports the highest WHIP, albeit a still solid 1.15.

          Miller falls exactly in the middle for both ERA and WHIP. However, he's been the luckiest of the five. His 3.72 xFIP is just a tad higher than his actual ERA, fueled by a high 75.4% left on base mark. Miller's .244 BABIP has benefited his 1.00 WHIP. Even so, Miller's skills are commensurate with a second or third starter on a competitive MLB team. In Seattle, he's arguably the fifth starter.

          Heading into the season, Miller was a fantasy favorite. After an encouraging freshman year, Miller spent the offseason working on a splitter. The 26-year-old right-hander has used the splitter 16.5% of the time. Its 16.0% swinging strike rate has helped improve Miller's strikeout rate from 22.2% to 24.6%. He's also using more sinkers while reducing the times he throws his four-seamer and sliders. It wouldn't be surprising for Miller's peripherals to improve even more next season as he continues to fine tune his repertoire.

          On Friday, Miller (88.8% rostered in ESPN leagues) takes the hill in Busch Stadium for an interleague affair with the St. Louis Cardinals. Miller is available in just one of every 10 ESPN leagues, so this isn't a suggestion to pick him up. It is a vote of confidence to make sure he's active. In two of his past three outings, Miller has failed to throw five innings. Don't play scared. Miller's overall body of work merits a fantasy start.

          What you may have missed on Thursday

          • Prior to last night's game, the Philadelphia Phillies placed OF Austin Hays on the 10-day IL due to a kidney infection. Hays had missed the previous two contests, so the stint can be backdated. Hays' replacement will likely be OF Johan Rojas, although the club promoted Cal Stevenson to fill the roster spot. The Phillies were also without 1B/3B Alec Bohm, marking the sixth straight game he's missed because of a sore hand. Roster expansion renders it easier for Philadelphia to play a man down, but an IL visit for Bohm is still possible.

          • The Pittsburgh Pirates played without OF Andrew McCutchen as the veteran missed Thursday's game due to lingering knee soreness. McCutchen came off the IL about a week ago after dealing with the same ailment. His status is day-to-day.

          • Minnesota Twins OF Max Kepler was sidelined for the fourth game in a row as he continues to experience knee soreness. The club also reported that OF Byron Buxton may have suffered a setback in what was hoped to be his final rehab appearance before being activated today. Buxton's hip acted up on Wednesday night, so his current status is unclear.

          • The Atlanta Braves continue to play it cautiously with 2B Whit Merrifield after he was hit in the head with a pitch on Tuesday night. Merrifield has cleared the league's concussion protocol, but manager Brian Snitker nevertheless opted to start Luke Williams at second base last night.

          Everything else you need to know for Friday

          • As is tradition when the Chicago Cubs are home for the weekend, the Friday slate commences at 2:20 p.m. ET in Wrigley Field. The New York Yankees are visiting the North Side for a three-game interleague set. The club activated Luis Gil (67.6% rostered) from the 15-day IL to make his first start since Aug. 20. The 26-year-old righty was out with a sore lower back. He made one rehab start, throwing 80 pitches, suggesting he's still stretched out. However, Gil has already compiled 124 2/3 innings. He threw a combined 29 2/3 innings the prior two seasons. It will be a delicate balance between protecting Gil and having him contribute to the stretch run and hopefully the postseason. There is even speculation that Gil transitions to the bullpen where Clay Holmes has been relieved of regular closing duties and is part of a committee. As for using Gil today, with the chance of a truncated outing, there are safer options in leagues with weekly games started or innings pitched limits.

          • The slate's top ranked streaming option is LHP Jose Quintana (8.0%), who will take the hill for the surging New York Mets. The opposition will be the Cincinnati Reds. For the season, the Reds offense boasts the ninth best wOBA on the road facing southpaws, but they fan at an above average clip. The Mets will face LHP Brandon Williamson, who will be making his second start of the season after recovering from a shoulder injury. Williamson threw 66 pitches in his debut on September 1, so he's likely to be on a limit, giving the Mets some hacks at the league's seventh worst bullpen since the All-Star break.

          • Cleveland Guardians LHP Matthew Boyd (11.0%) is the second highest ranked streamer on the docket. He's on the road against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The catch is the Dodgers offense is league average facing lefties since the break. The Guardians will step in the box against RHP Landon Knack, who will be summoned from Triple-A Oklahoma City for the occasion. Knack has been effective, but he rarely completes five innings. On the other hand, the Guardians bullpen has recorded a 1.96 ERA on the road since the break. Boyd is risky, but he's in play for those needing to make up ground. That said, perhaps Boyd is best suited as a GPP DFS play.

          • St. Louis Cardinals RHP Erick Fedde (45.1%) will face the Mariners in what portends to be a low-scoring affair. As has been the case all year, the allure facing Seattle is their lineup has been among the league leaders in strikeouts. For the season, Fedde has punched out just 137 over 154 2/3 innings. However, he's rung up 15 over his last two outings, spanning 11 1/3 innings.

          • Betting tip of the day: Strikeouts increased only slightly over the summer, but they've spiked in September. The Cincinnati Reds tend to struggle with contact when facing left-handers. Tonight, they get New York Mets LHP Sean Manaea at Citi Field. I'm backing Manaea for over 6.5 strikeouts (+120).

          Starting pitcher rankings for Friday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Friday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Friday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Friday