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          Fantasy baseball Saturday advice: Wacha is delivering serious results

          Post-game dousings of a successful Michael Wacha have become the norm in 2024. Getty Images
          • Mike Sheets
          Sep 14, 2024, 03:30 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication

          Wacha's success is no joke

          The Kansas City Royals currently hold the second wild card spot in the American League, boasting a +95 run differential that ranks second-best in the league. While Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo are the clear 1-2 at the top of the starting rotation, Michael Wacha has quietly asserted himself as a reliable arm who doesn't receive enough attention in both in real-life and fantasy circles.

          Wacha sports a rock-solid 3.34 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP across his 26 starts this season. In his 10 second-half starts, he has posted an impressive 2.63 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP. The veteran right-hander has also delivered a quality start in seven of his last eight outings.

          Wacha continues to rely heavily on his changeup, which is his most-used pitch (32%). It's the only pitch in Wacha's repertoire that grades as an above-average offering (110 Stuff+), but he maximizes its effectiveness by changing speeds and hitting his spots.

          With a matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Saturday, Wacha stands out as one of the top streaming options of the day. Over the past month, the Pirates rank bottom-five in baseball with an 87 wRC+, and they've been even worse over the last two weeks (79 wRC+). Available in 64% of ESPN leagues, Wacha is poised to continue his strong performance in this favorable matchup.

          What you may have missed on Friday

          By Todd Zola

          • New York Mets SS Francisco Lindor left last night's game after six innings with lower-back soreness. He doubled in the sixth inning but overran second base and seemingly hurt himself while awkwardly trying to get back to the base. Lindor played defense in the bottom of the frame but was replaced by Eddy Alvarez in the seventh. The extent of the injury is unknown but after the game, Lindor indicated his intent to play today.

          • Boston Red Sox RHP Tanner Houck was scratched from last night's start because of lingering right shoulder fatigue. It's unclear when he'll rejoin the rotation. Richard Fitts made a spot start against the New York Yankees. Fitts was acquired by the Red Sox in the Alex Verdugo trade.

          • Minnesota Twins SS Carlos Correa is slated to return to the lineup today. He has been dealing with plantar fasciitis in his right foot. Correa hasn't played since the All-Star break. He is returning without embarking on a rehab assignment, instead taking live batting practice facing minor league pitchers.

          • Tampa Bay Rays 3B Christopher Morel exited last night's contest in the third inning for a pinch-runner. He singled, rounded the bag and then took a step towards second base before retreating. Morel apparently hurt himself in the process. The extent of the injury and his status for today is unclear.

          • Cleveland Guardians OF Steven Kwan was scratched from last night's lineup due to body fatigue. The club is optimistic that Kwan just needed a day off his feet and that he'll be able to return today.

          • Cincinnati Reds manager David Bell reported that 2B Matt McLain probably won't return to action this season. He's progressing in his recovery from shoulder surgery and a stress reaction in his rib cage, but not to the extent that he's likely to take the field this season.

          Everything else you need to know for Saturday

          • After having been sidelined since late July due to a shoulder injury, Max Scherzer (37% rostered in ESPN leagues) is set to rejoin the Texas Rangers rotation on Saturday against the Seattle Mariners. He pitched well in his last rehab start at Triple-A Round Rock, logging four scoreless innings while striking out eight. A matchup against the Mariners presents a soft landing spot for the veteran, as the M's have the highest strikeout rate in baseball against right-handed pitching this season (27.6%). Manager Bruce Bochy has stated that Scherzer could go "five innings, 60 pitches" in his return, tempering any immediate streaming appeal, though he could be an option in his subsequent starts.

          • While a matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies isn't ideal, Luis Severino (35%) still comes out pretty well in our rankings. He has been in excellent form lately, posting a 1.95 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 9.8 K/9 over his last five starts. Severino also stands a good chance of securing a win in this matchup, as the Phillies are handing the ball to journeyman Kolby Allard, the owner of a 5.92 career ERA over his 263 big league IP.

          • Speaking of Allard, this is indeed a hurler we want to exploit. With the Mets in town, Mark Vientos (28%), Starling Marte (14%), J.D. Martinez (11%), and Francisco Alvarez (32%) all draw the platoon advantage in this matchup. They'll each enjoy a nice park boost at Citizens Bank Park.

          • There may be some hesitation in starting Justin Verlander (50%), who has had a few rough outings since returning from the IL. Nevertheless, we're inclined to trust in the favorable matchup. On Saturday, the veteran righty takes the hill against the Los Angeles Angels, who rank third-worst in wRC+ (77) over the last month and second-worst in strikeout rate (28.1%). Apart from those delightful occasions when one gets to face the Chicago White Sox, matchups don't get much better than this.

          • Betting tip of the day: I'm taking over 2.5 earned runs allowed (Even) for Brandon Pfaadt. The right-hander has allowed three or more ER in seven of his last eight starts, including each of the last five. Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Brewers have been above average against right-handed pitching this season, producing a 105 wRC+ to go along with the best walk rate in the National League at 9.6%.

          Starting pitcher rankings for Saturday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Saturday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Saturday

          The BAT X's Best Stacks for Saturday