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          Fantasy baseball Tuesday advice: Braves go to Schwellenbach

          With the season on the line, the Braves turn to Spencer Schwellenbach. Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire
          • Todd Zola, FantasySep 23, 2024, 06:00 PM
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication

          Atlanta's season on the line

          Despite a slew of injuries, including losing OF Ronald Acuna Jr. and RHP Spencer Strider, two of the finest at their respective positions, the Atlanta Braves remain in the NL Wild Card chase with one week left in the regular season. They have some work to do as they enter the week two games behind both the Arizona Diamondbacks and New York Mets, who are currently tied for the final two playoff berths in the Senior Circuit.

          While the Braves don't control their own destiny, they have a chance to significantly improve their chances with a three-game home set against the Mets, beginning on Tuesday. The Braves will hand the ball to rookie RHP Spencer Schwellenbach while the Mets will counter with veteran RHP Luis Severino. It's a pair of potential streamers for this crucial matchup.

          Early in the season, after a few others fell short, Schwellenbach (40.0% rostered in ESPN leagues) solved the Braves' need for a fifth starter. As it turns out, he was more than that, with injuries thinning the Braves rotation all season long. Schwellenbach will total at least 20 starts, having taken the ball regularly since late May. The club has a losing record with the 24-year-old righty on the hill, but he's done his part with a 3.61 ERA, fully supported with a 3.35 xFIP and 3.39 SIERA. Schwellenbach's 21.4 K-BB% ranks an impressive 13th among pitchers compiling at least 100 IP.

          Severino (35.5% rostered) signed a one-year "pillow contract" with the Mets last November, proving prescient in his choice of employers. Aided by working in the best pitching park in the game, Severino is enjoying a renaissance season. His 4.17 xFIP and 4.26 SIERA indicate he hasn't pitched quite as well as his actual 3.79 ERA suggests, but his estimators are just a smidge higher than the league's 4.08 ERA. Severino's success stems from limiting walks and keeping the ball in the yard.

          Over the past month, both the Braves and Mets lineups sport a nearly identical wOBA versus right-handers, with the Braves just one point higher at .312. However, the Mets have fanned at a higher 25.2% clip, compared to just 21.8% for the Braves.

          As Tuesday's rankings demonstrate, Schwellenbach is the preferred fantasy option. He's at home, facing a lineup with a higher recent strikeout rate. Perhaps most importantly, Schwellenbach's peripherals are better than those of Severino.

          Everything else you need to know for Tuesday

          • Tuesday is the final day this season devoid of an afternoon affair. The schedule commences at 6:40 p.m. ET with four contests.

          • Schwellenbach is the ledger's top ranked streaming candidate, but only barely as Toronto Blue Jays RHP Bowden Francis (51.2% rostered) ranks higher, but barely eclipses our 50% cutoff used to identify fantasy spot-starters. Let's bend the rules a bit as, after all, this is the last week of the season and Francis has been one of the best pitchers in baseball down the stretch, sporting a 1.67 ERA and an 0.50 WHIP along with a respectable 52 punchouts and a scant six walks over his last 54 IP. He's posted seven straight quality starts. Francis will face a depleted Boston Red Sox lineup, missing 3B Rafael Devers and perhaps OF Tyler O'Neill.

          • The next-highest ranked potential spot-starter poses a conundrum with Tampa Bay Rays RHP Ryan Pepiot squaring off with the Detroit Tigers in Motown. The rule of thumb is to lean to players and teams with something on the line, and the Tigers aim to complete their improbable playoff push. Furthermore, lately they've been excellent against right-handed pitching. However, Pepiot is coming off a dominant home effort versus the Red Sox, logging 12 strikeouts with no walks, and yielding just one earned run on two hits in six stanzas. This outing has the feel of a GPP DFS play as opposed to a traditional fantasy option.

          • Even though the Milwaukee Brewers are locked into the NL's No. 3 seed, there's no reason to limit RHP Tobias Myers (17.9% rostered) in his juicy road matchup with the Pittsburgh Pirates. In fact, Myers could be pitching for his spot in the Brewers' playoff rotation, so maximum effort is expected. The 26-year-old righty stepped up and helped fill the void created by the Brewers dealing Corbin Burnes and having Brandon Woodruff sidelined while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Myers' 3.05 ERA is probably a run too low based on estimators, but that still represents a league-average pitcher. On Tuesday, Myers draws a Pirates lineup with the 12th-lowest wOBA facing right-handers over the prior month.

          Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday