<
        >

          Fantasy Forecaster: April 3-10

          • Tristan H. Cockcroft
          Apr 1, 2016, 03:03 PM

          Fantasy Forecaster updated Saturday, April 2, at 9:38 a.m. ET.

          On tap: The 2016 Major League Baseball season begins with a tripleheader on Sunday, April 3, including a 1 p.m. ET matchup of National League Central rivals (St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates) and a rematch of the 2015 World Series (New York Mets at Kansas City Royals). Adam Wainwright, the Cardinals' starter, will be making his first start since April 25, 2015. Meanwhile, Matt Harvey and Edinson Volquez will square off in a rematch of their Games 1 and 5 World Series head-to-head battles. All three games are televised on ESPN.

          Monday, baseball's traditional Opening Day, features 12 games, four of them televised on ESPN. It'll be a day of Cy Young Award winners, as eight of them, who have totaled 11 of the past 14 awarded, are scheduled to work: Jake Arrieta, Zack Greinke, Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw (three), Dallas Keuchel, Corey Kluber, David Price and Max Scherzer. It'll also feature a rematch of the American League wild-card game (Houston Astros at New York Yankees), at the same venue (Yankee Stadium) with the same starting-pitching matchup (Keuchel versus Masahiro Tanaka).

          From there, the opening week features full, seven-game weeks for eight different teams but also five-game weeks for six other teams. One of those with five games is the Mets, who have a particularly strange Week 1, playing April 3 and 5 in Kansas City before back-to-back off days in front of an April 8-10 weekend series versus the Philadelphia Phillies, granting them the opportunity to use only three starting pitchers if they wish. Owners of Bartolo Colon and Steven Matz will surely be pleased. The Detroit Tigers and Miami Marlins, meanwhile, appear set to use all five starters during their respective five-game weeks, meaning no two-start pitchers; sorry, Justin Verlander and Jose Fernandez owners.

          Among the other opening-week highlights: The Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays battle at Rogers Centre April 8-10, with Price, the new Red Sox ace, facing his former team on April 9. The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants match up at AT&T Park April 7-10, with a showdown between Kershaw and Madison Bumgarner on April 9. Kenta Maeda also makes his Dodgers (and U.S.) debut at San Diego's Petco Park on April 6.

          Quickly jump to any section if you want specific intel

          ESPN leagues: Lineup deadlines

          ESPN leagues that have weekly deadlines will lock for the entirety of Week 1 at the start of the first game on Sunday, April 3; that means that lineups will lock at 1 p.m. ET that day and remain locked through the games on Sunday, April 10.

          ESPN leagues that have daily deadlines will lock players at the start times of each of their respective games. That means a 1 p.m. ET lock time on Sunday, April 3, for Cardinals and Pirates players, for example, and a 1 p.m. ET lock time for Astros and Yankees players on Monday, April 4.

          Remember that game times have tremendous influence on daily planning, so be aware of each day's first scheduled pitch. This week, they are:

          Sunday, April 3: 1 p.m. ET (Cardinals at Pirates)
          Monday, April 4: 1 p.m. ET (Astros at Yankees)
          Tuesday, April 5: 4:15 p.m. ET (Mets at Royals)
          Wednesday, April 6: 1:10 p.m. ET (Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays)
          Thursday, April 7: 12:35 p.m. ET (Phillies at Cincinnati Reds)
          Friday, April 8: 1:10 p.m. ET (Yankees at Tigers and Phillies at Mets)
          Saturday, April 9: 1:07 p.m. ET (Red Sox at Blue Jays)
          Sunday, April 10: 1:07 p.m. ET (Red Sox at Blue Jays)

          In addition, if your league has not yet drafted, be aware that drafts that occur after the start of the regular season will lock the drafted starting lineups into place retroactively, meaning that if you draft an injured or minor league player into an active roster spot, that player will remain there either through all of Week 1 in a weekly league, or until the next eligible roster deadline in a daily league. In other words, if you draft Michael Brantley as a starting outfielder in a draft on Thursday, April 7, he will remain in place in that spot through Sunday, April 10, even though he will be on the DL for at least the first week of the season.

          In order to ensure that your lineup locks the way you want mid-draft -- this pertains to those who draft after 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, April 3 -- within the draft room, when selecting a player, use the "Choose Slot" option beneath the "Draft Player" button to place him into any empty slot.

          Interleague impact

          This week's interleague series:

          Mets' probable DH(s): Yoenis Cespedes or Michael Conforto, depending upon which one the team feels is the greater defensive liability. Conforto started Game 2 of the 2015 World Series at DH, with Cespedes in left field, so that seems like the more probable arrangement. Because the Mets play all five of their games against right-handed starters, the addition of the DH makes Conforto a much stronger Week 1 play.

          Cubs' probable DH(s): Kyle Schwarber, freeing up an outfield spot to play him, Dexter Fowler, Jason Heyward and Jorge Soler in the same lineup. The Cubs might have a lot of competition for playing time this season, but for Week 1, gaining the DH for two games makes all of their outfielders stronger plays.

          Tigers' traditional DH: Victor Martinez, who will almost assuredly be relegated to pinch-hitting duty for both games in Miami, limiting him to at best three starts and probably no more than 15 total plate appearances for Week 1.

          Astros' traditional DH: With Evan Gattis on the DL, Tyler White is the next most logical candidate, though he'll presumably shift to first base in Milwaukee. Matt Duffy and Marwin Gonzalez would be the most adversely affected.

          Projected starting pitchers

          The chart below lists each of the 30 MLB teams' schedules and projected starting pitchers and provides a projected Bill James Game Score for each day's starter.

          Projected starting pitchers, April 3-10

          P: The starting pitcher's projected Bill James Game Score, accounting for past history (three years' worth as well as the past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. A 50 is typically deemed a "quality start" by this measure, while a 70 is considered a dominant start.

          Pitching scuttlebutt

          • Boston Red Sox: Joe Kelly and Rick Porcello will pitch on April 6 and 7, in a to-be-announced order.

          • Tampa Bay Rays: Fifth starter Erasmo Ramirez will be skipped during Week 1 due to an April 7 off-day.

          • Toronto Blue Jays: Marco Estrada (back) likely will begin the season on the DL but return as the fifth starter on April 10 (Sunday of Week 1). Aaron Sanchez could pitch on four days of rest if Estrada suffers a setback.

          • Detroit Tigers: Fifth starter Shane Greene likely will be skipped during Week 1 due to off-days on April 4 and 7.

          • Kansas City Royals: Fifth starter Kris Medlen likely will be skipped during Week 1 due to off-days on April 4, 6 and 7.

          • Atlanta Braves: Jhoulys Chacin, John Gant and Williams Perez remain in competition for the fourth and fifth starting roles, but the team could push one of them into Week 2 due to off-days on April 5 and 7. One will be needed for either April 9 or 10, however.

          • New York Mets: Fourth starter Bartolo Colon is available to pitch in relief April 3 and 5, and fifth starter Steven Matz on April 5, making it unclear who will start the April 9 and10 games. One of the two seems likely to pitch either of those games with Matt Harvey in the other, but Noah Syndergaard would also be available on four days' rest for April 10 if needed.

          • Washington Nationals: Joe Ross will be skipped during Week 1 due to off-days on April 5 and 8.

          • Cincinnati Reds: Anthony DeSclafani (oblique) might begin the season on the DL but could be ready to return as the fifth starter on April 10. The team will need an April 7 spot starter, with Tim Melville, Keyvius Sampson and Robert Stephenson the three leading candidates. One of those three could also be the fallback for April 10 if DeSclafani suffers a setback.

          • San Diego Padres: Either Drew Pomeranz or Colin Rea will serve as the team's fifth starter, pitching April 9.

          • San Francisco Giants: Matt Cain (elbow) is on track to serve as the fifth starter, pitching April 8, assuming he has built up his pitch count. Chris Heston would fill in if necessary.

          Tristan's Week 1 pitcher rankings

          Hitting ratings

          The chart below lists each of the 30 teams' total number of scheduled games, home games and games versus right- and left-handed pitchers, and provides a matchup rating for the week's games in terms of overall offense, offense for left- and right-handed hitters and base stealing. Matchup ratings for each individual game are listed under the corresponding date.

          Hitting matchup chart, April 3-10

          H: Hitters' matchup rating, which accounts for the opposing starting pitcher's past history (three years' worth as well as the past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. L: Hitters' matchup rating accounting only for left-handed hitters. R: Hitters' matchup rating accounting for only right-handed hitters. S: Base stealing matchup rating, which accounts for the ability of the opponent's catcher to gun down opposing base stealers.

          Ratings range from 1 to 10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst.

          Hitting advantages

          Here are this week's "volume plays," defined as the teams that play the most home games, or games against right- or left-handed starters:

          Avoid National League East offenses as much as possible, especially with four of the division's five teams playing only five times during the opening week. The Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins in particular have it tough; in addition to short weeks, they'll both tangle with the Washington Nationals' rotation, each facing Max Scherzer, and the Braves have Adam Wainwright while the Marlins have Justin Verlander also on their schedules. The Nationals, in fact, are the only high-grade offense for the week, mainly because they'll be facing Bud Norris during the Braves series, then the back end of the Marlins' rotation during the weekend.

          The NL West, conversely, is the division to exploit. Besides three of the five teams playing a full seven games, all five are playing at least six, and Chase Field will play host to seven total games while Coors Field will host three more. One might think of the NL West as a pitching-rich division; volume and hitting-friendly ballparks swing the ratings more toward the hitters during Week 1. The Diamondbacks, in particular, stand out, not merely because of the seven-home-games week but also because they'll face a good number of right-handed starters. Remember, this team managed the majors' sixth-best wOBA against righties last season (.323), making this an opportune time to use Jake Lamb, the team's platoon third baseman who generally makes those starts.

          This could also be a sneaky-good week for the Cardinals, at least if you're more critical of their offense on paper after Jason Heyward's departure or by looking at their mediocre spring-training numbers. After Francisco Liriano during their April 3 opener, the Cardinals don't face another high-grade starting pitcher; their remaining five games are against sleeper/rebound-type fantasy picks like Jonathon Niese, Juan Nicasio, Matt Wisler and Julio Teheran (as well as another against a mediocre Braves fourth starter). But what's particularly intriguing about the Cardinals' schedule is its stolen base grade, as they'll face catchers with poor stolen-base numbers in 2015 in Francisco Cervelli and A.J. Pierzynski. That's enough to bump up the weekly value of players like Stephen Piscotty and Kolten Wong.