As you get ready for fantasy football 2024, be sure to get plenty of practice by using our Mock Draft Lobby and keep track of Mike Clay's updated projections throughout the season.
Football statistics are extremely hard to predict, but history continues to show that projecting touchdown regression to the mean is significantly easier than you might imagine.
From the 2011 to 2022 seasons, there were 151 instances in which a wide receiver or tight end scored fewer than five touchdowns on 50-plus offensive touches before managing at least 50 touches the very next season. Of those 151, 101 (66.9%) scored more touchdowns the next season.
Focusing in on the 40 players in that group who scored fewer than three touchdowns during the first year, 32 (80.0%) scored more touchdowns the next season. Of the 13 who scored either one or zero touchdowns, 11 (84.6%) found the end zone more often the next year. Slot WRs Jason Avant (2011-12) and Danny Amendola (2018-19) were responsible for the two exceptions.
Last season, 29 WR/TEs scored fewer than five TDs on 50-plus touches, with notables Dalton Kincaid (2), Drake London (2), DeMario Douglas (0), Chigoziem Okonkwo (1), Josh Downs (2) and Jerry Jeudy (2) scoring under three.
We see similar results if we run this test on running backs. There are 39 instances in which a back failed to reach seven touchdowns on 200-plus touches before managing 200 touches again the next season. Of those 39, 32 (or 82.1%) scored more touchdowns the next season. Interestingly, there were four backs who failed to reach four touchdowns in the first year, but each scored at least seven times the next season (Melvin Gordon III, Ryan Mathews, Lamar Miller, Brian Robinson Jr.). The average second-year touchdown total was 9.3!
In 2023, 14 RBs fell short of seven TDs on 200-plus touches. Of those 14, four fell short of five TDs: Jaylen Warren (210 touches, 4 TDs), Devin Singletary (246, 4), Alexander Mattison (210, 3) and AJ Dillon (200, 2).
Six of the seven players on that list one year ago scored more TDs in 2023, with Singletary the only exception.
If you skipped all of that, or just tuned out while scanning over the math, the point here is simple: NFL players tend to bounce back -- often in a big way -- when they post an unusually low touchdown number and see similar playing time the following season.
In this piece, I'll be referencing expected touchdowns (xTD), previously labeled as OTD, which is a statistic that weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity. Put another way, it is how many touchdowns a league-average player would've scored with the exact same opportunity as the player shown.
A careful examination of each of the below player's 2023 usage tells us that we should expect a boost in their scoring production this season.
Be sure to also check out the list of players who will score fewer touchdowns this season.
Note: This study is limited to regular season rushing and receiving data.
Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
2023 TDs: 3; 2024 projected TDs: 9
Wilson jumps off the page -- and not only due to the obvious reason of having Aaron Rodgers under center. Wilson's 2023 TD total (three) was less than half his expected total (6.4), based on his usage. He was limited to seven end zone targets in the Jets' struggling offense, but we've seen big goal line usage from him in the past (his 13 end zone targets in 2022 ranked fifth among WRs). Incredibly, Wilson ranks fourth among WRs in targets (315) but is tied for 45th in TDs (seven) since he was drafted in 2022.