The Fantasy 32 analyzes the NFL from a fantasy perspective, with at least one mention of each of the league's 32 teams. Though efficiency will be discussed plenty, the column will lean heavily on usage data, as volume is king (by far) in fantasy football. Use these tidbits to make the best waiver-wire, trade and lineup decisions for the upcoming week and beyond. Be sure to check back each week of the season for a new version of the Fantasy 32.
Note that data from Monday Night Football may not immediately be reflected in charts.
The infirmary
Los Angeles Chargers RB Melvin Gordon suffered a knee injury against the Arizona Cardinals and is expected to miss a few weeks. While he's sidelined, backup Austin Ekeler will certainly be in the RB1 mix. When Gordon sat out back in Week 7, Ekeler was a workhorse. He was on the field for 42 of the team's 44 offensive snaps. He handled 12 of the team's 16 carries and seven of the 25 targets. Expect Justin Jackson to handle No. 2 duties, but he's unlikely to manage standalone fantasy value.
Indianapolis Colts RB Marlon Mack suffered a concussion against the Miami Dolphins. It won't be surprising if he misses Week 13. If that's the case, look for rookies Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines to split backfield touches with Jonathan Williams perhaps mixing in for a touch or three. Wilkins was working as the passing-down complement to Mack early on in Week 12, but ended up with three targets and no carries in the game. Hines registered nine carries and added a pair of late targets. Hines would be a fringe RB2 option and Wilkins, who is averaging 5.6 yards per carry and has caught all 13 of his targets, would be a flex play.
Colts TE Jack Doyle is done for the season with a kidney injury, which launches Eric Ebron right back into the high-end TE1 mix. Of course, that may have been the case regardless this week, as Ebron was promoted into a much larger role in Week 12. The ex-Lion ran 33 of a possible 39 routes and added two more touchdown catches, bringing him to a league-high total of 11. Ebron paces the league with 15 end zone targets this season. When Doyle missed five games earlier this season, Ebron handled a 23 percent target share and was fantasy's No. 4 tight end. Add the Colts' extremely light schedule against tight ends the rest of the way and Ebron is locked in as a top-five option at the position.
Cincinnati Bengals QB Andy Dalton injured the thumb on his passing hand and is out for the season. Jeff Driskel is the next man up. The third-year quarterback was sharp in relief of Dalton on Sunday, completing 17 of 29 passes for 155 yards and rushing three times for nine yards. He totaled a pair of touchdowns and didn't turn the ball over. Driskel's target distribution was as follows: C.J. Uzomah (25 percent), Auden Tate (21 percent), Tyler Boyd (18 percent), Joe Mixon (14 percent), John Ross (14 percent), Cody Core (4 percent), Giovani Bernard (4 percent). Uzomah managed only 14 yards on the seven targets, so while the volume is intriguing, he remains a TE2. Tate played the largest role of his career, but will head back to the bench if A.J. Green returns in Week 13. If he starts, Driskel would be a back-end QB2 against the Denver Broncos.
Broncos TE Jeff Heuerman is out for the season after breaking his ribs Sunday. The next man up is Matt LaCosse, who was targeted four times on 12 pass routes on Sunday. Case Keenum has distributed 22 percent of the team's targets to tight ends this season and considering his only current competition for snaps is blocker Brian Parker, LaCosse is certainly a candidate for a sizable role. He's best viewed as a TE2 option.
Opportunity alert
Throughout this piece, I'll be referencing "OFP" and "OTD." OFP stands for opportunity-adjusted fantasy points. Imagine a league in which players are created equal. OFP is a statistic that weighs every pass/carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's opportunity to score fantasy points, or his expected fantasy point total. For example, if a player has an OFP of 14.5, it means that a league-average player who saw the same workload in the same location on the field would have scored 14.5 fantasy points. OTD works the same way, except instead of fantasy points, it's touchdowns.
That said, here is the Week 12 OFP leaderboard:
*Complete positional leaderboards will be posted at ESPN+ this week
New York Jets WR Jermaine Kearse topped the FORP leaderboard last week, which suggested his opportunity had him headed for a big game. That was the case in Week 12, as New York's slot receiver hauled in six of 12 targets for 66 yards and one touchdown. Kearse is hard to trust in the Jets' struggling offense, but it's hard to ignore the fact that he ranks 16th at wide receiver in targets since Week 6. He's a flex option moving forward.
Pittsburgh Steelers WRs Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster rank first and fifth in OFP at wide receiver this season. Ben Roethlisberger ranks third at quarterback, James Conner sits seventh at running back and Vance McDonald is 16th at tight end. As usual, the Pittsburgh offense has been a hotbed for fantasy production. Smith-Schuster hit a bump in the road earlier in the season, but his standing as fantasy's No. 8 wideout is legitimate. Brown hasn't posted a weekly finish worse than 24th since Week 4.
Cleveland Browns RB Nick Chubb has been the team's feature back for its past five games. During those five weeks, Chubb ranks sixth at the position in OFP (83), fourth in fantasy points (103) and first in both carries (106) and rushing yards (490). Chubb's underwhelming role as a receiver is a slight concern, but he has seen three targets during three of his past four games and that, coupled with his massive rushing workload, is enough to keep him in the back-end RB1 mix.
FORP
FORP is the difference between a player's actual fantasy point total and his OFP (or expected fantasy point total).
First, here are the players who fallen short of their OFP by the largest margin during the past month and are thus candidates to see a rise in fantasy production, assuming they see a similar workload:
Detroit Lions TE Michael Roberts ranks sixth at tight end with six end zone targets this season and second in the category behind only Kyle Rudolph (six) with five since Week 7. Roberts hit a career high with six total targets in Week 12, though keep in mind that he was only on the field for 34 percent of the offensive snaps. Roberts is essentially a poor man's Eric Ebron, with his usage near the goal line keeping him in the TE2 mix.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR DeSean Jackson was an obvious regression candidate following a perfect catch rate and three touchdowns on only nine targets during Weeks 1-2, but the volatile receiver has been more bust than boom in recent weeks. Jackson hasn't scored since Week 8 despite still playing a sizable offensive role. Jackson has reached the seven-target mark during six of his past eight games, including three straight. Don't overlook him as a WR3/flex option despite the recent slump.
And these players have exceeded their OFP by the largest margin during the past month and are thus candidates to see a dip in fantasy production:
Browns QB Baker Mayfield has been red-hot, but he's not quite a reliable QB1 just yet. Mayfield has completed 63 percent of his passes and with 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Of course, his recent high-end production has come against an incredibly easy schedule (Buccaneers, Steelers, Chiefs, Falcons, Bengals). Despite the light slate, Mayfield's fantasy production has been inconsistent. The rookie has posted a trio of top-six fantasy weeks during his past five games, but has finished no better than 13th in his six other outings. Life will be tougher with road trips to Houston, Denver and Baltimore on the slate over the next four weeks, though Mayfield could be a league winner as a streaming option at home against the Bengals in Week 16.
Deep dive
By comparing an offense's pass OTD to its rush OTD, we can determine which teams are leaning heavier on the pass and which prefer the run near the goal line. Additionally, by comparing those results to each offense's pass-to-rush TD ratio, we can determine which teams could see some regression to the mean in the coming weeks.
First, here are the teams with the highest pass OTD percentage this season. In other words, these are teams likely to score the highest percentage of their touchdowns through the air.
Packers: 77 percent
Vikings: 75 percent
Colts: 74 percent
Chargers: 74 percent
Jets: 73 percent
Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, Andrew Luck and Philip Rivers are all 11th or better in fantasy points this season despite minimal contributions with their legs. Offenses that lean on the pass, especially near the goal line, are the primary reason for their fantasy success.
The Green Bay Packers have scored 71 percent of their offensive touchdowns via the air attack this season and that number may actually rise going forward. Entering 2018, Green Bay had scored at least 78 percent of its touchdowns through the air during five of the past seven seasons.
The Jets' offense hasn't cleared one touchdown in a game since Week 7, but this suggests their 63 percent pass touchdown rate is likely to rise. That could add some flex appeal to the likes of Kearse and Robby Anderson and hurts Isaiah Crowell, but there's not a ton to like about this unit.
On the other hand, here are the teams with the highest rush OTD percentage this season. In other words, these are teams likely to score the highest percentage of their touchdowns on the ground.
Patriots: 53 percent
Panthers: 54 percent
Saints: 55 percent
49ers: 55 percent
Bills: 56 percent
If you're wondering if you should bench New England Patriots QB Tom Brady against the Vikings this week, the answer is yes. Brady has not been a good fantasy quarterback this season. Consider that he put up 283 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns on Sunday and that still wasn't enough to allow a top-15 fantasy week. In fact, Brady has finished top 10 in only 27 percent of his starts this season, which ranks 22nd at the position. Playcalling has been a major reason for his fantasy struggles, as New England is calling a run-heavy offense for the first time since 2013 and only the second time over the past decade. The Patriots have an even 13-13 pass-to-rush TD split since Week 4 and OTD suggests it's legit. Speaking of Brady's Week 13 matchup, Minnesota hasn't allowed a top-15 fantasy week since Week 5, with opposing quarterbacks averaging a 22.7 finish during the span. Brady is a midrange QB2 right now.
The New Orleans Saints have scored at least one rushing touchdown in all but two games this season and have two or more rushing scores in seven of their 11 games. Their absurdly productive offense has allowed plenty of fantasy points to both Drew Brees and the running backs.
Finally, here are the offenses with the largest gap between their pass OTD percentage and their actual pass TD percentage.
49ers: minus-20 percent
Broncos: 17 percent
Bills: 16 percent
Texans: minus-14 percent
Chiefs: 13 percent
The San Francisco 49ers have scored 75 percent of their offensive touchdowns through the air (ninth highest), but their playcalling suggests the number should be closer to 55 percent (fourth lowest). Alfred Morris is the primary culprit here, as he has only one touchdown despite a 4.3 OTD and seven carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line. Morris was a healthy scratch in Week 12 and rookie Jeff Wilson Jr. is Matt Breida's new backup. Albeit in a low-scoring offense, the duo will get plenty of work when the 49ers are near the goal line down the stretch.
The Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs also are candidates for a higher rate of rushing touchdowns and the Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos figure to score a higher percentage of their touchdowns through the air moving forward.
Snap attack
Washington Redskins WR Trey Quinn has been busy during his first two NFL games. The reigning Mr. Irrelevant ran 31 of 44 possible routes in Week 11 and 32 of 41 on Thanksgiving. He has been targeted 10 times (third most on the team) and scored his first touchdown against Dallas. Quinn's role isn't enough to get him into the WR3 mix yet, but it can't be ignored that Washington immediately injected the late-rounder into a sizable role. Stash Quinn in dynasty and deep leagues and monitor his playing time once fellow slot receiver Jamison Crowder returns to action.
Cardinals TE Ricky Seals-Jones has been out-snapped 66 to 39 by Jermaine Gresham during the past two weeks. Seals-Jones ran a route on 77 percent of the team's pass plays during Weeks 1-10, but that mark has plummeted to 60 percent over the past two weeks. Seals-Jones has seen exactly two targets in back-to-back games and his reduced role means he's no more than a back-end TE2.
Oakland Raiders WR Marcell Ateman has been on the field for 90 percent of the Raiders' offensive snaps over the past two weeks and was targeted a team-high 10 times in Week 12. Ateman's volume should have him on your radar, but his efficiency leaves a lot to be desired. Ateman caught three passes for 16 yards on Sunday. He's only a deep league and dynasty asset right now.
Quick hitters
The Atlanta Falcons' offense has regressed in a major way in recent weeks. After averaging 3.4 touchdowns per game during its first eight games, the unit has totaled five scores during its past three outings. Though their value is trending the wrong way, this offense still has some solid fantasy options. Matt Ryan remains a mid-to-back-end QB1, Julio Jones is a strong WR1, Tevin Coleman is an RB2 and Austin Hooper is a bit of a boom/bust fringe TE1. Consider Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu flex plays.
Carolina Panthers QB Cam Newton has thrown for two or more touchdowns in 10 consecutive games. Carolina is on a three-game losing streak but the offense continues to rack up points, scoring three-plus touchdowns in six consecutive games. Newton is fantasy's No. 4 scoring quarterback and has finished top 10 in 73 percent of his outings. That's tied with Patrick Mahomes and Andrew Luck for best at the position. Newton joins Mahomes and Philip Rivers as the only quarterbacks who haven't finished a week outside the top 20. Newton is a high-floor/high-ceiling weekly fantasy option.
Chicago Bears WR Allen Robinson has stumbled against the defending of Darius Slay and Xavier Rhodes during the past two weeks, but the good news is that the Bears have one of the easiest remaining schedules for wide receivers. Robinson & Co. will face off with the Giants, Rams, Packers and 49ers over the next four weeks (with Minnesota in Week 17 if your league plays that long). Robinson is a fringe WR2, whereas Taylor Gabriel and Anthony Miller are on the flex radar.
Since returning from injury in Week 10, Jacksonville Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette has ripped off three consecutive top-seven fantasy weeks. That includes a Week 12 game in which he was ejected in the third quarter. Fournette ranks third at the position in OFP, first in OTD, and fifth in fantasy points during the span. The massive volume in an offense that has turned back to the run means he is, once again, a solid RB1 option. Lock him into your lineup when he returns from a Week 13 suspension.
Dolphins RB Kenyan Drake scored twice in Week 12 and now sits 15th at the position in fantasy points (16th in OFP). Drake has been a bit boom or bust as a part-time player alongside Frank Gore. Drake has managed five top-12 fantasy weeks, but has been 28th or worse in his other six outings. Consider him a fringe RB2.
Philadelphia Eagles WR Alshon Jeffery has fallen short of 50 receiving yards in four consecutive games and hasn't scored a single touchdown during the span. That's after he cleared 73 receiving yards during three of his first four games this season, scoring four touchdowns during the span. Jeffery's targets are a concern (five or fewer during three of his past four games), but he's still Carson Wentz's top perimeter receiver. Consider him a WR3 against Washington this week.
Bengals WR John Ross has scored one touchdown in each of the three games A.J. Green has missed, but even if Green misses more time, Ross remains a risky fantasy play. Ross' usage has been solid (either six or seven targets in the three games), but the efficiency has been a problem. He has hauled in only 14 (or 39 percent) of 36 targets and is averaging 4.9 yards per target. A whopping and league-high 42 percent of balls thrown his way have been off target (minimum 25 targets). Ross should be on benches if Green returns and is no more than a flex if Green remains out.
The Tennessee Titans were limited to 23 pass attempts on Monday Night Football, but Corey Davis still delivered the goods in what was a rare "not terribly hard" matchup for the second-year receiver. Davis paced Tennessee in both rushing (one carry, 39 yards) and receiving (four catches for 96 yards and one touchdown on four targets). Davis has handled his lowest two target shares of the season during the past two weeks, but a rest-of-season schedule that includes the Jets, Giants, Redskins, Colts and fading Jaguars sets him up for at least WR3 production.