Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you're torn between two similar players and simply don't know which one to start, start the player with the superior matchup.
Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
Let's get the bad news response out of the way first: Week 1 is the toughest week as far as evaluating matchups. It's commonplace for fantasy analysis to rely heavily upon the previous year's statistics, even though that completely ignores how quickly and dramatically the game changes, especially over a seven-month offseason.
The matchup ranks below provide a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
For Week 5, 2024 full-season data is used. Once five weeks are in the books, only the most recent five weeks' numbers will be used.
"Adj. FPA," or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how far above or below players' weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my -- and the ESPN fantasy staff's -- most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
All references to fantasy points are for PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Quarterbacks
Mike Clay and Daniel Dopp explain why Patrick Mahomes is no longer a must-start in fantasy football lineups.
Matchup highlight: Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (at Los Angeles Rams). His performance last week followed the classic script of rusty early, smooth late after working his way back from a knee injury, as he scored 22.84 of his 28.16 fantasy points for the day after halftime, picking apart what had until that point in the season been an outstanding Minnesota Vikings defense. Now Love faces a Rams defense that, while effective against Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears last week, has still afforded quarterbacks the second-most fantasy points per pass attempt (0.62). Love is a top-five positional option with the bye weeks upon us.
Others to like: Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns (at Washington Commanders); Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (at Jacksonville Jaguars).
Matchup to avoid: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. New Orleans Saints). He has been shockingly ordinary for our purposes for a while now, as he has only four games of 20-plus fantasy points and a 16.9 points-per-game average since the beginning of last season, numbers that have been exceeded by 15 and nine quarterbacks, respectively. Worse yet, Mahomes will be without Rashee Rice for this week (and probably longer), sparking similar questions about his receiving corps to those he had in 2022-23 following Tyreek Hill's departure. The Saints represent about as tough a matchup as Mahomes could draw right now, as they have held quarterbacks to the fewest fantasy points per pass attempt (0.21).
Running backs
Field Yates and Mike Clay discuss why the Bears' game plan vs. the Panthers could mean a big fantasy performance for D'Andre Swift.
Matchup highlight: D'Andre Swift, Chicago Bears (vs. Carolina Panthers). His fantasy managers certainly hope for a repeat of Week 4's results, both in his own and his matchup's regard. Swift enjoyed his best game with the Bears thus far -- and, really, the first productive game by any Bears running back in 2024 -- breaking off a 36-yard rushing touchdown in which he was clocked at 19.0 mph by Next Gen Stats, while tallying 68 (of 72 total) yards after the catch on seven receptions. The opposing Panthers, meanwhile, were gouged by the Cincinnati Bengals' combination of Zack Moss and Chase Brown, surrendering 41.0 PPR fantasy points to the duo. The Panthers are also one of only three teams (Arizona Cardinals, Buffalo Bills) to have surrendered as many as three 20-point performances to running backs thus far.
Others to like: Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Dallas Cowboys); Jerome Ford, Browns (at Commanders).
Matchup to avoid: Rachaad White and Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Atlanta Falcons). Irving continued to creep up on White in terms of workload last week, playing 41% of the offensive snaps with a 40% rushing share to White's 59% and 40%, and that narrowing of the gap presents much of the problem with evaluating these two. There's not enough clarity for either to warrant using when facing a below-average matchup, and this one is well, well beneath that. The Falcons have faced one of the tougher schedules thus far and have seen a whopping 14 goal-to-go rushing attempts, yet they still rank ninth-best in PPR fantasy points per game afforded to the position (19.2). On those 14 goal-to-go carries, by the way, they've surrendered only four touchdowns and stuffed the runner eight times.
Wide receivers
Daniel Dopp breaks down why Michael Pittman Jr. is a low-end WR2 or flex play in Week 5.
Matchup highlight: Michael Pittman Jr., Colts (at Jaguars). The Jaguars are quickly becoming one of the game's best cure-all matchups for passing games in the midst of funks, with the Bills and Houston Texans putting up huge fantasy numbers the past two weeks after quiet games the week before. Pittman's Week 4 wasn't necessarily "quiet," as he scored 17.3 PPR fantasy points in a game where Joe Flacco was called upon in relief of an injured Anthony Richardson, but he's nevertheless in need of a make-good performance for his managers. By the way, for those worried about the impact of Richardson versus Flacco starting this game: Pittman had 8.0 points on three targets from Richardson and 9.3 on six from Flacco last week.
Others to like: Amari Cooper, Browns (at Commanders); Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos (vs. Las Vegas Raiders).
Matchup to avoid: Diontae Johnson, Panthers (at Bears). Andy Dalton's installation at quarterback has been one of the most transformative moves of the season thus far, and it has paid huge dividends for his No. 1 receiver, as Johnson has a combined 27 targets and 47.5 PPR fantasy points in their two games working together. That said, the two have benefited from back-to-back favorable matchups, with this upcoming game their biggest test thus far. The Bears have afforded only one wide receiver to exceed 12.5 PPR fantasy points against them, and that was Nico Collins (27.5, Week 2) from the loaded Texans receiving corps. Expect a quieter day from Johnson.
Tight ends
Matchup highlight: Evan Engram, Jaguars (vs. Colts). A hamstring injury has cost him the past three weeks, but should Engram be back for this game, he'll draw one of the softest matchups he could ask for in his return to the lineup. The Colts have surrendered two of the nine highest single-game PPR fantasy point totals for the season: Cole Kmet's 25.7 (Week 3) and Pat Freiermuth's 16.7 (Week 4) in the past two weeks alone. That has largely been responsible for the defense's 2.0 points per target allowed to the position, third most in the league.
Matchup to avoid: Pat Freiermuth, Steelers (vs. Cowboys). The Cowboys' defense has struggled in many regards through the first month of the season, but one area in which they have succeeded is their performance containing opposing tight ends. They have allowed only 1.4 PPR fantasy points per target to the position, held David Njoku to 8.4 points on five targets in Week 1 and limited the Ravens' talented duo of Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely to 1.4 points on two targets in Week 3.